A View of The DE GOP’s Very Bleak Future
That’s what you get when you look at the game changing turnout numbers predicted with Barak Obama at the top of the ticket and you add that to Delaware’s Democratic Freshman Class in waiting and consider the historical impact of the 2002 Legislative Reapportionment.
To take Tobin’s matter of fact point to it’s logical conclusion, “safe districts” for Delaware Republican incumbents are going to be a thing of the past.
BREAKING:
jason330’s bold prediction of the Delaware House in 2009:
anywhere from 38D/3R to 41D/0R.
Actually, I guess that is sort of bold. It would have been better to label it SHOCKING.
How’s your deck?
I hate to be triumphalistic about it, but yeah…that’s pretty much it.
The deck is too valuable a symbol to fix at this point.
John Tobin’s blog is an interesting read, though. You may have a point about “safe” not being so safe anymore. No one in any seat that is up should ever feel safe, unless the deadline passes and no opponent filed.
Agreed, Tobin’s posts on redrawing the maps after each census are good reading. But I don’t draw the same conclusion as Jason does.
People have a tendency to re-elect incumbents — provided it’s the same people voting for the same incumbents. Tobin’s point is that if you strip an incumbent of a good chunk of his loyal voters, he becomes vulnerable to an upset.
In practical terms, the looming loss of the House by the GOP could doom the party to long-term minority status once the 2012 reapportionment rolls around.
Al’s statement is exactly my biggest concern here and has been after what happened in ’06.
The sun rising in the east gives me more shock than Jason’s predictions. Sorry, dude. We can talk about it over a Corona (you’re buying).