El Somnambulo’s Countdown of His Top Republican Targets in 2010-#10
With the General Assembly out of session for a couple of weeks, the Beast Who Slumbers has decided to fire up the Political Hot Stove and list, IESHO, the top races that the Democratic Party and, more importantly, the progressive wing of the Party, should target. Fret not, Rethug friends, ‘bulo will soon follow with another list of the top 10 D’s that this community should target.
‘Bulo will not be touching the US Senate or House races here, as others are doing a great job of that already. This list is for state offices on down.
He has chosen these criteria in making his list: (a) the race must be contestable, and the D must have at least some reasonable chance of winning; and (b) ‘Bulo must prefer change to the status quo (it’s HIS list, after all). For example, Sen. Dori Connor is not on this list even though her seat is clearly vulnerable b/c ‘bulo likes her and prefers her to the alternatives.
The order of the list is based on ‘bulo’s sense of ‘least likely to switch’ to ‘most likely’.
Starting with #10:
10. Sussex County Council District 5-Vance Phillips (also serves as Council President)
Phillips has been one of the developers’ best friends in Sussex County. In fact, the self-described ‘agribusinessman’ tries to have it both ways when he talks about supporting farmers’ rights while also supporting high-density development. You see, the farmers need to wring every last cent out of their land. From an excellent summary by the Sussex County League of Women Voters of a March 13 public meeting with Phillips (scroll down just a bit):
As Phillips spoke to league members Wednesday, March 11, at the Rehoboth library, he quickly learned one of those with different views was (Sandy) Spence of Lewes.
The two became locked in debate about base zoning – an issue that always stirs emotions. The discourse began after a member of the audience asked why people and officials in Sussex County and neighboring Wicomico County in Maryland have such different attitudes toward land use.
Base zoning in AR-1 districts, which includes most of unincorporated Sussex County, is two units to one acre. In Wicomico County, base zoning in agriculture-rural districts is one unit to 15 acres. The base zoning in village conservation districts is one unit to five acres.
Wicomico County officials are being criticized for suggesting a bonus-density program that allows one unit to three acres.
Phillips, a sixth-generation farmer who lives near Laurel, said large-lot zoning would change the way farming has been done in Sussex County for generations.
“It would completely change traditional farming,” he said. “And we have one the most vibrant agricultural industries in the nation.”
Spence said that is where the problem starts: with a mixed-zoning district where farming and residential development are permitted on the same land. She suggested the council set up separate farming and residential zones.
Phillips said the ideal way to achieve that is to purchase development rights from farmers and keep acreage in farming production. However, he admitted, it would take millions of dollars the county does not have.
Phillips said a change in density such as one unit to 10 acres would not allow farmers to carve out small parcels to sell off if needed and still retain the farming operation.
In addition, he said, the value of farmers’ land is based on two factors – actual land value per acre and development equity.
“What we can’t do is rob farmers of the development equity in their land,” Phillips said. “Farmers would rather cut off their arm than sell the farm.”
…Many in the room did not agree with Phillips’ stand on density. Phillips was adamant that he was not an advocate for changing current density in AR-1 zoning. He went as far to say he would stake his political career on protecting the rights of farmers to protect the equity in their land.
Some in the audience accused county council of promoting growth and development in the county through its land-use policies. “It’s not five people in Georgetown,” Phillips answered. “Development is driven by availability of capital.”
This District has a Democratic registration tilt, and Phillips’ 2006 D opponent, Harvey Hyland, got 43% of the vote. Keep in mind, however, that members of Sussex County Council from both political parties have been disastrous stewards of the land for a long time. So, not just any Democrat will do. El Somnambulo believes that someone willing to challenge the pro-development mindset will find a lot of support from development-weary Sussex Countians, and might just win.
‘Bulo would welcome feedback from Sussex County readers on whether they consider this a winnable race.
Coming tomorrow: ‘Number 9, Number 9, Number 9….’
Tags: Delaware Politics
Very, VERY slim chance of this. It’s not a matter of party registration (Democrats and Republicans are virtually indistinguishable down these here parts), but geography.
The district is a strip across the bottom of the county, from Delmar and Laurel in the west to Fenwick Island in the east. The population is heavily centered in the western and central portions of the county, and that’s Phillips’ base – Laurel, Millsboro, Dagsboro, Gumboro. Anywhere there are farmers and people who make their living from the land – including developers and real estate agents – there are Vance Phillips supporters. (And there are plenty of developers in the area – as land vanishes in the east, they’re moving westward.) Add in the conservative Christians – he was a big Huckabee backer – and he’s got a combination that’s unbeatable for that district. The people in southeastern Sussex concerned about development just don’t have the numbers.
Harvey Hyland, a Laurel school board member, tried to knock him off. Peg Baunchalk, former Fenwick mayor, tried to knock him off. Both failed despite their previous political experience and minor name recognition. There’s no one on the horizon who’s contemplating a serious challenge.
FYI, Phillips also dabbles in real estate, btw. He doesn’t just grow watermelons.
Guess that’s what he means by ‘agribusinessman’.
At least Phillips’ #’s suggest that he’s something of a polarizing figure as opposed to George Cole, who wins with ridiculous ease. And maybe the areas that have been/are being developed since Phillips last ran are filling up w/people who, like those who migrated to the Middletown area during the great expansion, want to pull the drawbridges up and end the expansion.
Anyway, there’s a reason he’s #10 and why Cole isn’t on the list at all. At some point, one suspects that a grassroots anti-development movement will spread westward across the county. Maybe it’ll be in time for the 2010 elections, maybe not.
I can’t wait to see the whole list!
When it comes to “saving” Sussex County, the horse is out of the barn – the barn has been torn down, and a tanning salon has been built where the barn used to be. I think all of us can agree that SC is a development disaster wrapped in an eye sore.
Not that my slice of the state is any better – but if ever a citizenry deserved the rogering they are getting from on their elected representatives it the greedy short-sighted Sussex Countians.
…and a tanning salon has been built where the barn used to be…
or an under-ground-injection shit farm.
My gut feeling is that even in 2010, the economy is still going to be the biggest issue on peoples’ minds. Development means lots of jobs, and I don’t think many voters in western and central Sussex, where jobs are scarce, are going to be picking the people who want to stop growth.
Beast, you hit this right on the head. And I totally disagree with anon idiot if you look at Phillips numbers they are much lower than the republican office (State reps.) holders in his Coucil District. Hyland beat him in his home town of Laurel and Delmar. If the D’s ran someone from the Millsboro-Dagsboro area with some name reconition, Phillips would be a goner. Farmers and Vance Phillips don’t mix.
I stand by my conclusions. “Farmer from Sussex” probably isn’t.
I don’t have an ED map right now to do the number-crunching on the Hyland-Laurel-Delmar claim, but I can refute another part as demonstrably incorrect.
“if you look at Phillips numbers they are much lower than the republican office (State reps.) holders in his Coucil District.”
There are only two Republican state reps whose districts cross Phillips’ – Lee in Laurel and Hocker in southeastern Sussex. In 2006, Phillips won with 57 percent. This year, Lee won with 59 percent – hardly a huge difference. Hocker won with 72 percent, which is such an runaway victory it shouldn’t even count.
Now, the 41st may be more instructive. That was Atkins (D) vs. Hastings (R), 53-47. Phillips was very heavily invested in the Hastings campaign – they’re allies, and Hastings was Phillips’ campaign manager. If the Democrats can find a social conservative with high name recognition and a good ol’ boy attitude to run, they might be able to eke out a similar win over Phillips. But that would mean only a faux “Democratic” victory – much like the old-school Democrats who ran the county the last 20 years.