2014: The Delaware House

In our second post in our informative series on Delaware politics, we shall tackle the Delaware House of Representatives. Yesterday, we discussed the Delaware Senate, and over the coming weeks and months, we will profile each Representative and Senator and their respective districts.

The State House is made up of Representatives of 41 representative districts. These representative districts are called RDs. The RDs are a very important geographical unit for the state Democratic Party, as the Party organizes itself according to the boundary lines of each district. If you are new to the state, and want to get active in your local RD Committee, then first find out which RD you are in by playing with the maps below, and then go here for the local RD contact information.

Representatives are elected to two year terms, so they are up at every election. Currently, there are 27 Democrats and 14 Republicans in the House. The Speaker of the House is Peter Schwartzkopf (D) of the 14th RD, which is down in the Rehoboth Beach area. We are currently in Speaker Schwartzkopf’s first term as Speaker, as the previous Speaker, Bob Gilligan (D), retired after the 2012 election. The Speaker election following the 2012 election pitted Schwartzkopf against Wilmington Democrat Helene Keeley (D), and the election was close. Close enough that the Speaker still looks over his shoulder for mutineers from time to time. The rest of the House Leadership is as follows:

To aid us in this series will be the graphics and tools of Stephen Wolf and his team at Daily Kos Elections. They have put together a Google Spreadsheet that shows us a map of all the House districts in Delaware, and colors them according to how they voted in the 2012 election and which party represents these districts today.

Districts colored solid red voted for Romney, and sent a Republican to the [Dover]; Solid blue seats voted for Obama and elected a Democrat. Light red districts voted for Obama while voting for a Republican legislator, while light blue seats [voted for Romney while electing a Democratic Representative]. Simply click on a district and it will tell you who represents it, which party they belong to, when they first took office, their last election result, and the 2012 presidential result. For a larger map click the link [above].

This is even more valuable a tool for the political junkie for House Districts, for they can be so small. I once lived on one side of the street in one RD, and my neighbor across the street lived in another district. So play around with that map above, and if you want to view a larger map, click here. So, which of these 41 Districts are competitive, and can the GOP pick up the 7 seats they need to win back the majority? The short answer is no, the GOP cannot pick up the 7 seats they need, and that is because there are only 5 potentially competitive Democratic seats, while there are 7 potentially competitive Republican seats that they will have to defend as well. Here is a chart showing what I mean:

First, here is what Stephen Wolf at Daily Kos has to say:

Republicans held the Delaware House for decades until 2008, but like the Senate it is now solidly Democratic. Twenty-eight districts voted for Obama to only 13 supporting Romney. Just like the Senate, Democrats hold a very red 57-42 Sussex County Romney seat [John Atkins in the 41st]. Republicans hold two Obama districts, including one northern seat that gave the president 59 percent [Mike Ramone in the 21st]. As a result, Democrats hold a 27-14 super-majority. The median district supported Obama 60-38, about three points more Democratic than the whole state.

That very red 57-42 District is that of John Atkins, and his 41st District. And let’s start with him. The only thing that makes John Atkins a Democrat is the D after his name. And I am not saying because I am some spiteful progressive talking about a DINO conservative. No, Mr. Atkins was a Republican up until 2007. In December 2006, Atkins was forced to resign after an alleged abuse of power during a non-DUI/DWI event in Maryland that later culminated in an alleged domestic incident at his home. Then Mr. Atkins made a deal with then House Minority Whip Peter Schwartzkopf: Atkins would run for the seat as a Democrat and vote for the Democratic leadership. But then he could vote as a Republican for everything else. And vote as a Republican he has. Atkins won his first election as a Democrat in 2008 53%-47% over the Republican incumbent Gregory Hastings. That was down from his 2006 total of 62.7% and 2004 result of 69.9% as a Republican. In 2012, Atkins barely beat out Republican Richard Collins 50.4% to 49.6%. It looks like voting Republican and being a Republican in his heart of hearts is no longer enough. I expect Atkins to lose this year to which ever Republican challenges him. So we will classify this race as Lean Republican. If Atkins were smart, he would leave the Democratic Party now and run as a Republican. But I wonder if the GOP will even have him back.

In the 37th District, Ruth Briggs King could be facing a competitive race with Paulette Ann Rappa (D) of Millsboro. Barack Obama won 47% of the vote here in 2012, so this district can be marginally competitive for Democrats. Couple that with the fact that Briggs King won a relatively low 54.2% of the vote in 2012, a right Democrat in the right conditions could actually make this race. Right now, however, I would classify this race as Lean Republican at the moment.

In the 33rd District, Republican Representative Harold “Jack” Peterman (on the left in the picture) squeaked by Democrat John Kevin Robbins (on the right) 53% to 47% in 2012. Obama got 46% of the vote here in 2012. Robbins is back for rematch this year, though Peterman has yet to file. I would expect this race to remain in Republican hands, given the midterm turnout. But the 33rd District bares watching. So I am going to rate this Lean Republican for now.

The 29th District in 2012 featured one of the surprises of election night, with Trey Paradee defeating Republican Rep. Lincoln Willis. Given that Paradee won with 54% of the vote, and Obama won here with 53% of the vote, and the district’s history of being competitive and electing Republicans on occasion, we have to view this district as competitive. But Paradee, I think, has done a good job keeping in touch with the voters of this district. His GOP opponent, Peter Kramer, is one of those young whippersnapper conservative types. I do not see Kramer winning, but he should pull down 45%. So this race is Lean Democratic. But it is one to keep an eye on. If the GOP has any hopes of winning the majority, they must win the 29th.

Staying in the south for a more more race, we have a rematch in the 20th RD between Republican Rep. Steven Smyk and Marie Mayor. Mayor won 47% to Smyk’s 53% in 2012, with Obama mirroring Mayor’s 47% in the district. Given the midterm turnout, I would expect this district to stay in Republican hands, so I am classifying it Lean Republican for now. Smyk is a former state trooper and they do well in and running for the General Assembly. But we will keep an eye on it for a number of reasons. First, Smyk is a freshman and the 20th is a new district that was moved south to the Milton and Lewes area in 2012 after redistricting. The demographic “dust” has yet to settle in terms of what to expect from this district. Second, the numbers from 2012 and the voter registration numbers show this to be a relatively competitive district, and it was drawn that way. Third, as you probably saw from Mitch Crane’s comment in our Senate post yesterday, the Sussex County Democratic Party has been re-energized under his leadership, and his optimism is infectious. This third reason can equally apply to race in the 37th race between Rappa and Briggs King. So we’ll see.

Moving upstate to the 11th RD, we have another new district created after redistricting in 2012. And like in the 20th, we have a freshman Republican rookie Representative, Jeff Spiegelman, who is facing his first race for reelection and a rematch against his 2012 opponent, Democrat Lynne Newlin. He won by 210 votes the last go-round, and Newlin has been off and running since before the New Year. Lynne scored 48% of the vote in 2012, three points better in the District than Obama at 45%, indicating that she has some crossover appeal. Couple that with the general Democratic lean of the district itself, and this rematch could be as close as it was in 2012. I am rating the race as a Tossup for now.

In the 10th RD, we have perennial survivor, Democratic Representative Dennis E. Williams. Williams won a close reelection in 2012 against Republican Bob Rhodunda, 52% to 48%, after surviving a close primary race against Sean Matthews, 53% to 47%. He won the 2010 race against Rhodunda, 55% to 45%. And he won his first race in 2008 against Republican incumbent Bob Valihura 50% to 49%. He now faces Matthews again in the primary, and Rhodunda again in the general, if he survives the primary. He significantly underperformed Barack Obama in 2012, who received 62% of the vote in the district. Usually, by a Representative’s third election, he has handle on the district. But Williams’ vote total in 2012 receded from his 2010 total. If Atkins is the most vulnerable House Dem, Williams is the second. But he has shown a tenacity to survive before, so while I will rate this race as a Toss up, I do expect Williams to survive.

Next we will address a number of districts that could be competitive given the Presidential vote totals in 2012, or past performance, but which probably won’t be in 2014 unless very viable challengers emerge. In the 14th RD, we have Speaker Schwartzkopf. He was unchallenged in 2012, but his district is in Sussex. Even though the district is Rehoboth, it is still Sussex County. Even though Obama won 51% there in 2012, it is still Sussex County, and I consider no Democrat there safe unless, like Pete, they go unchallenged. And so far, there is no GOP challenger on the horizon. When Schwartzkopf was last seriously challenged in 2010, when he had to contend with the Sussex County Christine O’Donnell Tea Party wave, Pete still won with 53%. So it is likely Schwartzkopf would survive a challenge in any case. In the 12th RD, we have Republican Representative Deborah Hudson. She faced no opposition in 2012, when her district became much more friendly to Republicans. And yet, Obama scored 49% of the vote there in 2012. Can her virtually unknown Democratic challenger, Jeff Porter, take advantage of that? It is too early to tell. And one of the reasons for that is the rumor that Hudson may face a primary challenge. If she does, then we will revisit this race. Until then, it is a Lean Republican race.

In the 22nd and 21st RDs, we have two upstate Republicans, Joe Miro and Michael Ramone, respectively, who represent districts that President Obama won in 2012. In fact, Obama won the 21st, Ramone’s district, with 60% of the vote. But Ramone doesn’t have a Democratic challenger yet, and you can’t beat something with nothing. So we will revisit this race if and when Ramone has an opponent. Joe Miro has an opponent in the 22nd, where Obama won 51% of the vote in 2012. His name is John Mackenzie (D), who ran for Senate against Liane Sorenson in 2008. In that election, he lost by 2 points, 51% to 49%, which was perhaps the nudge that Liane needed to decide to retire in 2012 rather than face fellow Senator, Dave Sokola. Miro beat Democrat Dave Ellis by a 63% to 37%, which means that you a significant portion of Obama Democrats, some 14% of them, voting for Miro. Can Mackenzie bring them home. What makes the 22nd RD race even more interesting is that we have Delaware’s best known Libertarian, Steve Newton, running a third party campaign for the seat as well. Newton could very well pull enough away from Miro to give the seat to Mackenzie. So I will label this race a Toss Up, but for now, I expect Miro to survive.

Finally, the 9th RD with Democratic incumbent Rebecca Walker. Walker was unopposed in 2012, but in 2010, she barely won by 51 to 49. Barack Obama won 52% of the vote in the district in 2012. And now it appears that she will get a well known Republican challenger, realtor Kevin Hensley. I don’t know why, maybe it is Kevin’s very sympathetic family story, being well known in the community as a realtor, coupled with Walker’s underperformance as a candidate in 2010, but I think she is in trouble. I am labeling this race as a Toss Up. And right now, I predict Walker will lose.

Here is our full map of all the RDs and a list of incumbents and/or candidates who have filed to run. My prediction is that the GOP will net one seat, and return to the 26-15 margin that existed prior to the 2012 election. They will defeat Walker in the 9th and Atkins in the 41st, but the Dems will win with Newlin in the 11th. But the Dems have opportunities to expand their majority in the 22nd, and in the 21st if they find someone viable to run against Ramone.