Delaware 2014: The House [Pre-Primary]

I love this map. It was put together by Stephen Wolf and his team at Daily Kos Elections. They have put together a Google Spreadsheet that shows us a map of all the House districts in Delaware, and colors them according to how they voted in the 2012 election and which party represents these districts today.

Districts colored solid red voted for Romney, and sent a Republican to the [Dover]; Solid blue seats voted for Obama and elected a Democrat. Light red districts voted for Obama while voting for a Republican legislator, while light blue seats [voted for Romney while electing a Democratic Representative]. Simply click on a district and it will tell you who represents it, which party they belong to, when they first took office, their last election result, and the 2012 presidential result. For a larger map click the link [above].

The underlay of a Google Map beneath the colored partisan districts really shows you, finally, enough detail to actually know where these districts are. The stand alone maps that the Elections Department and the legislators use on their websites are really of no help, especially if they are interior districts with no obvious geography or towns. Anywho, we have 41 State Representative Districts in our Diamond State. These offices are up for election every two years. The Democrats currently hold a 27-14 majority in the House, having regained the majority from the Republicans in 2008 after many long decades of GOP control. The question is, as always when I do these previews and prognostications, is that majority in danger this time around?

No. And this chart above is a big reason why. As of this writing, the above districts will not have an election as the incumbents running for reelection are not being challenged by anyone. These are the seats where neither party could find a living human being willing to sacrifice him or herself in a most likely losing cause. I understand the undesirability of such a prospect, and I understand that mutual partisan gerrymandering have made some of the above districts virtually unchallengeable since they have so many registered voters of one party over another. Still, what is lost in this “protecting the incumbent” Delaware Way racket is the offering of a choice to the voter. Indeed, both parties fail their voters twice in this regard. First, by designing these districts in the first place. Second, by not offering the voters in this district a choice. So you have 13 Democrats that will get reelected without lifting an eyelash. If I were a Republican, I would be furious. For how can you win back a majority and challenge the one party rule of this state if you are already conceding 13 seats to the enemy? In fact, I was furious back ten years ago when the GOP was in the majority locally and federally, and Democrats, locally and federally, would leave necessary seats unchallenged. That anger led progressives to form and then embrace Howard Dean’s 50 State Strategy, which locally we termed the 62 District Strategy (for the 41 House and 21 Senate Districts in the state). And to their credit, Democrats locally have been good at fielding candidates in normally unwinnable districts. In the chart above, we have only 4 districts that are so far unchallenged.

Both of the major parties have until 4:30 pm on September 2 to nominate candidates in these uncontested races. And sometimes, the parties do find willing sacrificial lambs, so the chart above will likely change before our next post primary update. So stay tuned.

The Current Score: 13 Democrats. 4 Republicans.

Here, we have districts that have honest to God elections, but these elections are not yet what I would consider competitive, in that either party could win them. Indeed, some of the races above are only contested because a third party candidate stepped up to the plate to offer the voters a choice. Here I am talking about the 7th RD, where Democratic Rep. Bryon Short faces Libertarian Robert Wilson; the 21st, where Republican Rep. Mike Ramone faces Green Party candidate David McCorquodale (which is now my new favorite name in Delaware politics); and the 39th, where Republican Rep. Daniel Short faces Libertarian James Brittingham. I would expect all the major party incumbents to prevail in those races, so the scoreboard is…

Democrats 14, Republicans 6.

Then we have districts that have popular incumbents in favorable districts facing nominal major party opposition. It is safe to say that the incumbents in all of the following races are heavily favored for reelection:

2nd–Wilmington–Rep. Stephanie Bolden v. Richard Dyton.
12nd–West Concord Pike, Greenville, Hockessin–Rep. Deborah Hudson v. Jeffrey Porter.
16th–S. Wilmington, Wilm. Manor, New Castle–Rep. JJ Johnson v. Gregory Coverdale.
27th–Glasgow–Rep. Earl Jaques v. Edward Willberg.
30th–Harrington–Rep. Bill Outten v. Jonathan Gallo v. Gordon G. Smith.
32nd–East Dover, Little Creek–Rep. Andria Bennett v. William McVay.
34th–Camden, Wyoming–Rep. Donald Blakey or Lyndon Yearlick v. Ted Yacucci.

The scoreboard now, assuming that all of the above incumbents get reelected as they should:

Democrats 18, Republicans 9.

There are a couple of races on this chart above that I find interesting, and circumstances could change enough between now and post primary that could make these races competitive. The first is the 15th RD. We have an interesting primary between James Burton and House Majority Leader Valerie Longhurst. I think it is quite possible that Longhurst could get upset in that race. In 2012, she only dispatched Burton by a margin of 57% to 43%. That is a danger sign for an incumbent in the leadership.

So if Burton does win, I think it opens up the 15th to a much more competitive race, because the GOP has a young whippersnapper candidate in Matthew Lenzini. Right now, we will assume that Longhurst will survive a primary challenge and dispatch Lenzini in the fall. But the winds could shift there, so we will keep an eye on it.

In the 8th RD, Rep. Quinn Johnson faces Republican Matthew Brown. In 2010, the last midterm, Johnson beat his Republican opponent by a margin of 63 to 37%. Whenever you get into the 60’s, I usually consider that incumbent safe. And Quinn increased his margin to 69 to 30% in 2012, over his current opponent Matt Brown. So the rematch should go along the same lines. I just want to keep an eye on this race, because I just have a feeling it could be closer this year. Perhaps due to the open seat race next door in the 9th.

In the 19th RD, we have the surprise primary between Rep. Kim Williams and her 2012 rival and New Castle County advocate Bill Dunn. The winner of the rematch will face Republican realtor James Startzman. Williams beat her Republican opponent in 2012 65 to 35%, so the margin will likely be the same this year no matter how the Dunn-Williams rematch resolves, but I am still keeping an eye on it.

In the 33rd RD, Rep. Jack Peterman just got past John K. Robbins in 2012, 53% to 47%. Obama got 46% of the vote here in 2012. The rematch may prove difficult without Obama on the ballot, which is why I am not including this race among the Competitives right now. But this race bares watching. But right now I expect Peterman to remain in Dover.

So, assuming all the incumbents above win, the scoreboard is… 21 Democrats, 10 Republicans.

The Democrats have now won a majority in the House for the upcoming 2015-16 Session. There are 41 Districts, and 21 are needed for a majority. So the game is over before we even get to the competitive House races. But let’s pretend the following races matter, or that we have a few surprises that I do not foresee above…

We will take each of these races one by one….

The 4th RD–Wilmington, Greenville–Rep. Gerald Brady v. Robert Keesler—-Including this race among the competitives is a conceit on my part. Rob Keesler is a friend of mine (yes, I have Republican friends!), and he is the type of Republican that needs to win races in his party so that his party sees the light and abandons Teabaggerism. He is young, a millenial, and he is more of a libertarian than not (especially on economic policy). On some social issues he is decidedly socially libertarian. So I am rooting for him in this race, and he is running in it like Bryan Townsend ran his upstart campaign against Tony DeLuca in 2012. Young upstarts pounding the pavement often surprise entrenched incumbents asleep at the switch. I rate this race Lean Democratic, and I expect Brady to win, just given the demographics of the district, but I am watching to see if a new Republican message has any resonance upstate.

The 9th RD–E. Middletown, Appoquinimick–Jason Hortiz v. Kevin Hensley v. Douglas Campbell—-Rebecca Walker retired in such a way that ensured there was no primary to replace her, and that has severely damaged her party and her nominated replacement, Jason Horitz. Mr. Hortiz has no opportunity to raise money twice, no opportunity to introduce himself to the district over the last 6 months as other candidates have done, as his opponent has done. Kevin Hensley is well known in the district, and I was expecting him to beat Walker should she run. It is more of a toss up now that Walker is not in the race, as Hortiz at least is a new candidate without Walker’s failings as a candidate. Barack Obama won 52% of the vote in the district in 2012. If I were to make a prediction, I predict Hensley will win, and this will be a REPUBLICAN PICKUP.

The 10th RD–Northeast Concord Pike, Claymont–Rep. Dennis E. Williams or Sean Matthews v. Judy Travis—-Williams won a close reelection in 2012 against Republican Bob Rhodunda, 52% to 48%, after surviving a close primary race against Sean Matthews, 53% to 47%. He won the 2010 race against Rhodunda, 55% to 45%. And he won his first race in 2008 against Republican incumbent Bob Valihura 50% to 49%. He now faces Matthews again in the primary, and a more formidable candidate in the general in Judy Travis, if he survives the primary. Williams significantly underperformed Barack Obama in 2012, who received 62% of the vote in the district. Usually, by a Representative’s third election, he has handle on the district. But Williams’ vote total in 2012 receded from his 2010 total, is that entirely because his district was changed due to redistricting, or is it because of him? The primary with Sean Matthews has been quiet, except for the letter writing on taxpayer money thing. So I don’t know if Matthews can upset Williams in the rematch, but I would not be surprised if he does. Williams has shown a tenacity to survive before, and he has a lot of money, so while I will rate this race as a Toss up, I do expect Williams to survive.

The 11th RD–S. Middletown, Townsend–Rep. Jeffrey Spiegelman v. Lynne Newlin—-We have a freshman Republican rookie Representative, Jeff Spiegelman, who is facing his first race for reelection and a rematch against his 2012 opponent, Democrat Lynne Newlin. He won by 210 votes the last go-round, and Newlin has been off and running since before the New Year. Lynne scored 48% of the vote in 2012, three points better in the District than Obama at 45%, indicating that she has some crossover appeal. Couple that with the general Democratic lean of the district itself, and this rematch could be as close as it was in 2012. Given that Jeff is generally disliked by those he works with in Leg Hall due to his Teabagger Arrogant yet Ignorant uncompromising attitude, I wonder if his constituents have the same impressions. This is a toss up, and I expect Newlin to win the rematch. A DEMOCRATIC PICKUP.

The 20th RD–Milton, Lewes–Rep. Steve Smyk v. Marie Mayor v. Don Ayotte—-Here is a rematch from 2012. Mayor won 47% to Smyk’s 53% in 2012, with Obama mirroring Mayor’s 47% in the district. Given the midterm turnout, I would expect this district to stay in Republican hands, so I am classifying it Lean Republican for now. But there is a lot of enthusiasm among Sussex Democrats this election, among their slate of candidates, Mayor included. So that is one reason why I include this race among the competitives, and another is that this is only the second election in a brand new district, so the demographic “dust” has yet to settle in terms of what to expect from this district. But, if I had a gun to my head: Smyk is reelected.

The 22nd RD–North Star–Rep. Joe Miro or Michael Smith v. John Mackenzie v. Steve Newton—-This is a cluster you know what of a race, and it only got more complicated with incumbent Joe Miro getting a primary. Who is Michael Smith? Can he beat Miro? I have no earthly idea, so I will assume Miro will survive. How is Libertarian Steve Newton doing? Will he be a Plan B for Smith voters? For Democrats not liking Mackenzie, or liking some aspects of Newton’s Libertarianism (Newton has been very outspoken during Ferguson, saying things liberals can definitely agree with? If Miro survives the primary, I kinda expect, after all of the craziness, that Miro will survive.

The 29th RD–West Dover–Rep. Trey Paradee v. Peter Kramer—-The 29th District in 2012 featured one of the surprises of election night, with Paradee defeating Republican Rep. Lincoln Willis. Given that Paradee won with 54% of the vote, and Obama won here with 53% of the vote, and the district’s history of being competitive and electing Republicans on occasion, we have to view this district as competitive. But Paradee, I think, has done a good job keeping in touch with the voters of this district. His GOP opponent, Peter Kramer, is one of those young whippersnapper conservative types. I do not see Kramer winning, but he should pull down 45%. So this race is Lean Democratic. But it is one to keep an eye on. If the GOP has any hopes of winning the majority, they must win the 29th.

The 31st RD–Dover–Sean Lynn or Ralph Taylor v. Sam Chick—-Sam Chick lost to Darryl Scott 63 to 37% in 2012. He is back for more in 2014, but now this is an Open Seat, with Scott retiring. Attorney and Dover City Councilman Sean Lynn and Businessman Ralph Taylor. Check the last few stories on Mr. Taylor’s Facebook campaign page. Interesting, to say the least. I expect Lynn to win the primary, as he has lined up all the right endorsements, including Scott’s. Lynn v. Chick will be interesting. And it is a toss up, but one I expect the Dems to win.

The 37th RD–Georgetown, Long Neck–Rep. Ruth Briggs King v. Paulette Rappa—-Ruth Briggs King is facing a competitive race with Paulette Ann Rappa (D) of Millsboro. Barack Obama won 47% of the vote here in 2012, so this district can be marginally competitive for Democrats. Couple that with the fact that Briggs King won a relatively low 54.2% of the vote in 2012, a right Democrat in the right conditions could actually make this race. The enthusiastic Sussex Dems may turn out in enough numbers, and the teabaggers might stay home in enough, for Rappa to win. So I am hopeful for a Rappa victory, but it is one I cannot predict as yet. I predict Briggs King hangs on.

The 41st RD–Milsboro, Selbyville–Rep. John Atkins v. Richard Collins—-The only thing that makes John Atkins a Democrat is the D after his name. And I am not saying because I am some spiteful progressive talking about a DINO conservative. No, Mr. Atkins was a Republican up until 2007. In December 2006, Atkins was forced to resign after an alleged abuse of power during a non-DUI/DWI event in Maryland that later culminated in an alleged domestic incident at his home. Then Mr. Atkins made a deal with then House Minority Whip Peter Schwartzkopf: Atkins would run for the seat as a Democrat and vote for the Democratic leadership. But then he could vote as a Republican for everything else. And vote as a Republican he has. Atkins won his first election as a Democrat in 2008 53%-47% over the Republican incumbent Gregory Hastings. That was down from his 2006 total of 62.7% and 2004 result of 69.9% as a Republican. In 2012, Atkins barely beat out Republican Richard Collins 50.4% to 49.6%. It looks like voting Republican and being a Republican in his heart of hearts is no longer enough. Indeed, coupled with more strife in Atkin’s personal life, I expect voters in the 41st to say enough. So this is a REPUBLICAN PICKUP.

So the final scoreboard is Democrats 26, Republicans 15. The Republicans thus gain just one seat.