A Placeholder is Impossible Now.
The thing I like about Return Day is that it is the first engagement of the next election. To much of the nonpolitical world, the election is over. To political junkies, there is always another election, and the time to prepare for it is right after you put down your glass of celebration or despair following the past election’s results.
In Delaware, Return Day is a time for wild speculation. I believe I saw the first Matt Denn for Lt. Governor sticker at a Return Day in 2004. The first Markell for Governor sticker was seen in 2002. Some candidates indeed openly yet indirectly encourage the speculation.
Just as John Carney did here:
Signs were painted and stickers distributed pleading, “Send JC to DC.”
Offered a sticker to wear himself, though, Carney demurred.
Such stickers are eagerly awaited on Return Day. Often, they hint at the next big ambition or the next big campaign. And sometimes they reflect only fantasy.
Carney said somebody told him ahead of time about the stickers — just having some fun, they said.
“And I told them to go ahead and have their fun,” Carney said. “I’m lieutenant governor right now.”
The sticker talked about is here:
No denials, there Mr. Carney. No Shermanesque statements. Carney was content to let the fun, or speculation, continue. Of course, he could not directly encourage the speculation by saying “That is a great sticker, I hope I do get a chance to go to DC.” That may work in Illinois, where several potential replacements for Sen. Barack Obama have openly declared their willingness to be appointed by Gov. Blagojevich. But here, given the prior conventional wisdom that Vice President-elect Biden will be the final arbiter of who gets appointed to the seat, and that his inclination is to save the seat for his son, it would be risky to be so bold.
And that has been the conventional wisdom for years around here: that Beau Biden will replace Joe Biden at some point in the Senate.
I think that CW is wrong on several counts, and indeed, has been replaced by a new CW.
Joe Biden has given no indication that he wants to so overtly help his son. Sure, Beau has the last name, his father’s good will with the people, huge name recognition, and the money that comes from his father’s fundraisers, but I think Joe thinks that is enough of an advantage. Indeed, when the Attorney General spot came open in 2005 when Jane Brady resigned to take the Judgeship offered by Governor Minner, Minner, on the senior Biden’s insistence, could have appointed Beau at that moment, and then run for reelection in 2006 with the advantage of incumbency. While I am not privy to the thoughts of Joe and Beau Biden, I think it is telling that they did not choose that path, but instead ran on his own for the office.
I think the same modus operadi is at work here. Of course, Beau Biden cannot be appointed to fill his father’s Senate seat at this moment because he is currently serving with his National Guard unit, awaiting deployment to Iraq. And he will be in Iraq for a year. Thus, it would be illegal for him to be appointed. But, if Joe and Beau wanted Beau to take that seat in the 2010 special election, Governor Minner would be instructed to appoint a place holder like Harriet Windsor Smith or Carl Danberg.
Now, some will say that this remains the most likely scenario for the upcoming appointment, because it still coincedes with the notion the Bidens held regarding the AG office: that Beau should earn the office “on his own merits” by running for it directly without the advantage of an appointment incumbency. That’s true, and it may still play out that way.
But I think something else has happened. Democrats are now split. For the placeholder appointment to work, allowing Beau to run in 2010, Carney and his supporters would have to be on board. Return Day showed that they are not, and are instead openly speculating about sending “JC to DC.” Carney would have to disavow publicly any interest in the Senate for a placeholder appointment to work, and he did not. Yes, he said he is only Lt. Governor right now. But the operative phrase is “right now.”
I think the new CW at work is that John Carney is owed this appointment by Minner, and that Carney is more than capable in serving as Senator.
A placeholder appointment for the benefit of Biden now would threaten to divide the party. A placeholder appointment requires almost unanimity that Biden should be Senator in 2010. That unanimity is not there now.
Now, Beau Biden himself is not without options. I believe the House seat will be open in 2010, whether by Castle retiring or by his running for the Senate himself. And if Castle does decide to run for reelection in 2010 to the House, Beau can run for reelection to the AG office, and wait for Carper to retire in 2012 (a possibility, although remote) or for Castle to retire in 2012 or 2014.
Your thoughts?
A placeholder appointment would be a disaster which makes me think that RAM might try it.
Did you catch her idiotic quote in the cabinet story?
Minner has expressed hope that some in her Cabinet would stay on. Asked during Return Day why she never endorsed Markell, Minner said, “Nobody told me I could.”
Hahaha. Although, I do think she is being very sarcastic there, as in she is saying no one in the Markell campaign wanted the Minner endorsement, and they probably told her not to.
I don’t think John Carney is “owed” anything which you mention as the new CW. But I do think Delawareans deserve to have someone who is in it for Delaware and in it for the long haul. A placeholder just puts Delaware’s interests on the back burner.
John Carney is the one who kept the Democratic Party together in what could have been the most divisive primary since Daniello/Shipley back in the 70s. Everyone, including Jack Markell, recognize that John’s putting the solidarity of the party ahead of his personal feelings was truly the act of a statesman.
This is the kind of person we as Delawareans deserve, and should fight for, to represent us in DC.
That is what I meant about being “owed.” Carney has been and is a true statesman.
“Joe Biden has given no indication that he wants to so overtly help his son. ”
How about covertly?
The experience of having lived in this state all my life tells me that Minner’s Danberg appointment was the necessary placeholder for Beau’s eventual run. The Delaware Way is all about waiting your turn and the polite respect for the pecking order’s rotation that is decided in back-rooms with everyone but the average citizen (or their interests) involved.
There is nothing compelling in DEDEMs position that dissuades me from believing that Minner is going to appoint a placeholder for U.S. Senate that meshes with a Beau run in two years.
Because there ain’t shit that anyone can do about the above, I expect that Minner’s pick is going to be Harriet Windsor Smith for a number of reasons.
1). Minners’ track record indicates she would favor placing the first woman to represent DE into Congress
2). Smith’s pedigree shows she has Sussex roots and Carper credos, the two things that put the patina on any Minner decision, IMHO. (http://sos.delaware.gov/hswbio.shtml)
Carney’s ambitions don’t make him the ‘safe’ bet even though his qualifications should.
Did you catch her idiotic quote in the cabinet story?
Minner has expressed hope that some in her Cabinet would stay on. Asked during Return Day why she never endorsed Markell, Minner said, “Nobody told me I could.”
*
O.M.G. no I missed that gem.
The quote of the fucking decade.
She will stand as the sievey puppet-head-of-state.
Beau Biden is young and his rise will be inevitable. John Carney has earned it now and should be rewarded now. The future still belongs to Beau, and he will be able to claim it two, four, or six years from now, when there is an opening that suits him. Let Beau prove himself to be his own man. Let Joe the VP-elect show his statesmanship by supporting the common-sense choice.
“Thus, it would be illegal for him to be appointed.’
No it is no illegal for Beau Biden to be appointed. He can resign his commission in the NG.
However, it would be a bad move to appoint Beau to fill Joe’s seat because there would be backlash on the Obama / Biden administration. Remember Obama represents change not business a usual for the good old boy network.
Beau going to Iraq! Now we have a real problem! It would not be fair to those serving in Iraq to divert extra security around Beau Biden who surely would be a prize target. Also, it’s not fair for those serving with Beau to be put in a position of added risk. Not one man or women should be at risk because of Beau Biden presents.
Sorry to say it folks Beau Biden need not go to Iraq because the risk of even one life is a high cost to pay. It’s no fair to Beau Biden to be caught in the middle but he has no right to put anyone in danger because of his present.
John Carney appointed to Joe’s seat? If the democrats didn’t supporting him as governor, the clear message was they didn’t want him! I mean its one hell of a sweet consolation prize but let’s get real.
kilroy wrote:
kilroy, it was a very close primary. To say the Democrats don’t want Carney is quite a stretch.
Agreed, nemski. I liked both Carney and Markell.
The Democrats did want Carney. It was the 4,000+ crossover Republicans that helped Markell take the seat.
So am I the only one here to be a little unhappy about the “Carney has earned it” thread here? I mean, this is one (of many) of the reasons why many of us supported Markell — to be rid of the “its his turn” or “he earned it” stuff without actually asking a voter for his or her buy in. I can’t imagine why losing a close election ought to entitle Carney to a Senate seat as though it were the Miss Congeniality prize.
Interesting post. I don’t really know what people are saying in private but I think Carney will be appointed. Aren’t Carney and Minner close? Beau Biden has a big career ahead of him and he’s still young so he can wait a little bit longer.
Cassandra,
I don’t think Carney earned it by time served. I think he earned it by coming so close in the Democratic primaries and by being a good sport and a team player after his loss.
I’m with Cass. I don’t think Carney should get it because he’s “earned” it. I think he should get it so he’ll run to keep the seat, thus preventing Baby Beau from getting it.
I’m sorry, but I have the same general distaste (politically) for Beau Biden in the same way I do Charlie Copeland. I mean, on a personal level, I think they’re perfectly fine. The last thing we need in Delaware is a political dynasty. Damn if I don’t see Beau setting up one of his kids in 30 years…
Cassandra, it really depends on what your definition of “earned” is. 😉
If your definition of earned is something like it is your turn, then Carney should not get the post.
If your definition of earned is a Democrat is has served Delaware well, who knows and understands politics, and who is available, then Carney would foot the bill.
Let me toss this one in there that Carney is a father of two boys and this fact would go into any decision he would make.
Ruth Ann will appoint herself.
She will show up for key votes and vote the way Harry Reid says.
The rest of her time will be spent on taxpayer funded junkets.
in 2010, Jr Joe Biden will run, no dem will challenge the son of the VP.
Carney will run against Castle (or for the open seat if Uncle Mike retires)
the only mystery is who will be appointed State Treasurer?
nemski
“kilroy, it was a very close primary. To say the Democrats don’t want Carney is quite a stretch.”
Just from an observation! Carney should have been a shoe-in! If Minner held him back that’s one thing but if he is reponsible for losing himself then it’s on him.
“table lamp”
“The Democrats did want Carney. It was the 4,000+ crossover Republicans that helped Markell take the seat”
I can work with that!
cassandra_m
“I can’t imagine why losing a close election ought to entitle Carney to a Senate seat as though it were the Miss Congeniality prize.’
I am with you on this one!
It would be nice if Beau had the opportunity to establish a real record as AG so he had something legitimate to run on. While I respect his current service, I was hoping to see him perform as an AG before he ran or was appointed to his next public office.
I think it would be too brash for Beau to get senator with so little statewide experience.
I think Carney getting the seat and Beau running for Castle’s seat is more plausible and acceptable to the general public, besides it gives Beau time to get back from “Iraq.”
In reality, “Iraq” would probably be a command office in Dubai, nice and secure.. sitting behind a desk, pushing paper, and running coffee for Generals.
Wondering what you think of these really far-fetched (delusional) scenarios for the next Senator:
Placeholder: Daniello
Change of Fate: Markell – Then Carney gets to be Governor. I don’t think it would be wise for Markell to accept, don’t know if he could.
I admit these are never gonna happen, but just wondering what anyone else thinks.
Yes. There are fantastical scenarios, but I’ll play.
Daniello has all of the charm of a turd covered with burnt hair, which is why he is good at his god and would be horrible as a Senator.
Markell already said no to DC and I think he views himself as more of an executive type, but he Senate is 6 years so less campaigning would probably has some appeal.
Here’s Ruth Ann! saying she will not appoint herself:
http://www.delawaretalkradio.com/talkblog/absolutely-not/