The Whites Only Paradox
Eighty-seven percent of the votes the Republican nominee won in 2008 were from Whites. Compare that to 1976, when the Republican Presidential nominee’s White number was 95%. Number-wise, the Republicans had 37 million White people vote for them in 1976, while in 2008, the numbers almost reached 51 million — a 13 to 14 million net increase.
From a demographic standpoint, one might say that’s a good thing, dropping from 95% to 87% in 32 years, not a big drop, but a drop in the right direction. The problem the GOP is running into is that in 1976, only 11% of the voting public was Non-White, just under 9 million ballots. In 2008, the Non-White electorate made of 26% of the voting public and a whopping 32.5 million ballots. And let me throw this into the mix, the total number of votes cast from 1976 to 2008 only increased by 45 million.
Currently in the United States, Whites make up 68% of the population. The US Census Bureau projects that in 2050, Whites will only make up 48% of the US population. While another study has Whites dropping below 50% in 2042.
The nut of the issue for the Republican Party that they must grow their Non-White base, while at the same time holding on to their White vote, which they attracted through fear and hatred (immigration, black crime, gay marriage, and Arab terrorism). Their methods and their goals seem to be paradoxical. And to top this all off, the GOP is going back to roots, being socially intolerant. Things are coming up good for the Democrats. Message to Obama, Pelosi and Reid — don’t screw this up.
Tags: Republicans
How on earth can Republicans break this cycle – a cycle, I might add, that they set in motion. I know we’ve all offered advice, but this problem is bigger than breaking up with Sarah Palin.
Their base – which is rapidly decreasing and won’t be replaced – is not open to compromise. I simply don’t see middle ground for them.
Maybe we should be asking if the Republican Party is on its way to extinction?
Nice post, Nemski.
Nixon had the southern strategy now they should live with it. By the way they seem to encourage this type of voting in every election
A further problem for Republicans is that the youth vote is going Democratic more than 2:1. They can’t rely on a white vote with those kind of numbers.
You know what should frighten the hell of our Delaware Republican friends: John McCain got the second largest amount of votes from White voters ever. McCain got more White votes than Ronald Reagan and McCain still lost.