‘Bulo’s Top 10 Republican Targets for 2010-#5
9th Representative District-Dick Cathcart, House Minority Leader
Democratic insiders will tell you that no one ran a more disappointing 2008 campaign than Becky Walker against Dick Cathcart. Her entire campaign should be a case study on how not to take a second run at somebody. OK, you’ve convinced him, El Somnambulo will provide a brief case study on why Walker failed to win.
1. You must keep running. When you lose a competitive campaign the first time out, you must keep running for election if you really are serious about winning. That means showing up at civic association meetings, being visible in the District, having the occasional campaign event to keep the volunteers stoked, raising money for next time. Both Earl Jacques and, to a lesser extent, Mike Barbieri followed this time-honored path to second-chance victories in 2008. There are an awful lot of others that ‘bulo could cite from over the past 20 years or so, but he respects his readership to understand that continuing to campaign makes a lot more sense than not continuing to campaign. Sadly, Becky Walker either did not understand or, more likely, chose not to take that path.
2. You must use everything you accumulated first time around. Even if you ignore Point #1, you should have several advantages that first-time candidates don’t. The most important of these should be a canvassing list of people who supported you last time. This should be your first resource for volunteers, sign locations, and proxies for the campaign. You should also have a list of your financial contributors so that you can build your war chest early. The Beast Who Slumbers knows that Walker did not make optimal use of resources from the first time, caused in part by failure to do a great job of keeping good notes from the first time around.
3. Like the first time, you must examine your situation and ask yourself whether the time is right to run. Any prospective candidate must ask themselves whether the time is right (a) with your family situation and (b) with your employment situation. If the answer to either is no, then the time simply isn’t right. If answers to both are ‘yes’, then they must honestly ask and answer the question do they have the fire in the belly? If the answer is no, no harm and no foul, the time is just not right. Becky Walker’s work situation was so demanding that, in hindsight, there was no way that she would have had enough time to do sufficient outreach to the voters.
In spite of these failures, she almost took out Dick Cathcart twice. In 2006, she got 46.5% against Cathcart. In 2008, her woeful campaign still yielded 46.2%.
The numbers in the 9th District heavily favor the Democrats. 8156 D’s, 6396 R’s, and 4517 I’s. The District has experienced some of the heaviest growth in the State in the Middletown-Odessa area; that growth has boosted the Democratic numbers; and these are largely people new to the area and not loyal to Cathcart or the Republicans. Here’s the map.
Now, let’s look at Cathcart himself. A well-connected Republican has told El Somnambulo that he believes Cathcart will retire. While ‘bulo is skeptical and expects him to run for at least one more term, he could well understand why Cathcart would pack it in. Cathcart was born in 1944, so he’s already 64 years old. He will be about a week shy of his 66th birthday come Election Day, 2010. Cathcart is politically astute, and he realizes that ‘the trend is not his friend‘, that the numbers in his district can only get worse. He also appears to subscribe to the ‘bulo Philosophy of Exercising, aka ‘it’ll kill ya’, and will not be able to campaign nearly as vigorously as a younger challenger, although some women admire a manly ‘pear-shape’.
Cathcart has at least one other major potential issue, his job, which is, according to his legislative profile: Associate Vice President of University Operations, Delaware State University.
Just read that job title and ask yourself, is there any way that this is not a euphemism for what he appears to be?: “Bagman-Delaware State University”. BTW, El Somnambulo has it on good authority that Cathcart’s life ambition is to rise to the level of Assistant Vice President of University Operations, Delaware State University. Or is that the job that former Rep. Nancy Wagner already has there? Somehow ‘bag man’ seems more respectable than ‘bag lady’, but ‘bulo digresses.
This job should have been a major issue in 2008, and there’s no reason it shouldn’t be front and center in 2010, if Cathcart runs. People hate double-dipping, especially now. State employees really hate it when they see this as their friends are getting laid off. Cathcart is by no means the only offender, and there are plenty of double-dipping D’s, but he happens to be the guy in the crosshairs of this article.
The key to winning this race is simple, but with one potential pitfall. Candidate recruitment. Identify prospective candidates early and settle on one and rally around them. The candidate would ideally be from the ‘new school’, someone with a good handle on the development issues overrunning the district, and someone who can relate to all the new residents.
The potential pitfall is that would-be old school powerbrokers Chris Roberts and Stephanie Hansen might try to impose their will on the selection process. They have meddled like crazy in recent elections, and it’s clear that Chris yearns for a Tom Gordon-like resurrection (return from, at best, ethical purgatory). Come to think of it, El Somnambulo hopes that Chris Roberts has a Gordon-like resurrection as well…
If Democrats don’t get in the way of themselves, this seat will flip in 2010.
Tags: Delaware Politics
Chris and Stephie must thank the heavens every day for Tom and Sherry, because with out those two Chris and the second Mrs. Roberts would be the most reviled political couple in the county — and deservedly so.
That sounds like a great target, ‘bulo. Who do the Democrats have recruiting candidates?
You also forgot to mention the greatest campaign manager in RD9 history was involved, too.
Oh, btw…I’m glad to see the “meddling” issue isn’t only an observation from one view. I will happily tell you about other, unnamed here, meddlers, but in due time, mi amigo, in due time.
I think your assessment of Cathcart and the fact that DSU employment might hurt him is probably off the mark.
The reason is that the record doesn’t back up his ability to get much of anything for the university, even in his formerly pretty powerful position. DSU’s appropriations in real dollars have been flat or even slightly declining for several years, and Cathcart has not successfully (if at all) pushed any of the previous administration’s grandiose capital improvement plans.
More to the point, possibly: the General Assembly is well known as both a retirement plan for former State Troopers and a UD alumni association. Given the amount of cherry-picking UD gets away with in regard to its budget, I doubt there’s too much traction against Cathcart on this one.
As a member of the 9th committee, I’ll keep my eye on this.
meddler exposed!!!
😉
Kidding, of course.
While Steve is right about the retired state troopers and/or UD alumni (when and if ‘bulo gets around to writing either his Delaware Way series or his Not Just More Democrats, Better Democrats series, he’ll certainly be piggybacking on Steve’s points), the fact that there are other egregious cases of greasing the wheels in Dover does not make this one less exploitable.
(Folks, you may have just witnessed history. The longest and (arguably) least intelligible sentence El Somnambulo has ever written.)
Nancy Wagner’s double-dipping at Del. State and getting a state job for her Bud probably cost her her seat last year.
Regardless, the Beast Who Slumbers would enjoy seeing Cathcart or his supporters defending him for being so ineffectual in his job there. What makes it so cool is that, knowing Delaware politics, it is not out of the realm of possibility.
And speaking of ineffectuality in one’s job, #4 on the Countdown tomorrow looks at perhaps the most ineffectual officeholder in Delaware. Well, except for KWS, although even that is a close call. So, we’ll just call him/her the most ineffectual long-term officeholder in Delaware. You have been teased…
Cathcart worked the “workforce housing” issue to great effect. Down the stretch he was able to establish himself as a possible state level savior to county level bad guys who wanted to put rows of section 8 townhouses next door to their one house per 2 acre developments.
Nevertheless her 2nd race should have been better especially since she was (by some estimations) the protege of psycho campaigner Bethany Hall Long.
I understood that sentence just fine, and it took the words right out of my mouth. Steve is talking inside baseball; the fans only care that Cathcart is pulling down a sweet paycheck for, apparently, doing nothing, while state workers who actually work are taking an 8% hit. It’s highly exploitable, but the challenger will need money to get that message out.
You shouldn’t have given such a big hint to #4. If Democrats were eligible your choice might be a mystery, but there’s only one R who fits the description: The Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man.
The Beast Who Slumbers is not sure he gets Geezer’s reference.
So, in subtle code that only dogs can hear, he asks Geezer: “Would faith that this official is doing a good job require a ‘suspendering of disbelief’?”
A simple yes or no will suffice.
Don’t forget the effect of #3, ‘bulo. I hear that dude coined the oxymoron, “aggressive patience.”
RSmitty,
Another repub groveled and apologized to your Supreme Leader today. Makes you proud, don’t it?
http://thinkprogress.org/2009/04/20/tiahrt-limbaugh-apology/
This message has been brought to you by the campaign to change RSmitty to iSmitty.
sonOFAB*TCH!
“aggressive patience.”
That is some kick ass thought leadership.
Worked for two cycles so far, J. Patience, grasshopper, aggressively, so.
A1…I checked out all the crap on Rep. Todd Tiahrt. His weasely spokesperson did the bended knee job on Limbaugh to get back into the good graces. I’d like to see what Tiahrt has to say, though. Currently, he’s spineless for being quiet. Either back it up, or weasel out of it, but don’t send your lackey to deal with it.
Know what, though? They can call him the conservative leader all they want. They can have him. That bloviated jagass should be complimented that someone even calls him an entertainer. He sucks…on his own fat rolls.
They can have him.
“You” is “they.”
Be sure to read the lovely pandora’s “Really, I’m Okay With This” post.
I just wanted to mention this to you, not hijack the thread, so that’s all.
This off-topic message has been brought to you by the campaign to change RSmitty to iSmitty.
I hear Apple is almost ready to release a new version of the iSmitty. It is like an iPod, except it monitors your conversations and randomly makes obscure references, riffing on actual conversations going on around it.
And instead of an accelerometer, which detects leanings, it actually leans many directions, but always claims to lean “true right”
slightly-right, pal. Get your shizzit straight! 😉
No. I was thinking taller, wider and more interested in symbols than substance.