The Delaware Way
The puzzle board is getting filled in. Carney is running for Congress, right now. O’Donnell is running for Senate, right now. Castle is playing coy, right now. Biden is serving in Iraq, right now. Protack comments at Delaware Liberal, right now. Copeland is blogging at Resolute Determination, right now. Where the puzzle pieces are set right now may not be where they are set in a few months. There are several balls in the air that, once they land, will alter our puzzle board.
First, the news of the day, is the release of a pretty great poll for Castle by the Republican polling firm Susquehanna Polling & Research that shows Castle crushing Biden 55% to 34%. I haven’t read the cross tabs yet to see if they are pushing leaners, or what the party breakdown of the sample was, but regardless, it is a poll designed to get Castle in the race, just as the Pennsylvania poll the same firm conducted is a poll to get Tom Ridge in the Pennsylvania Senate race. Thus, while the numbers are not good for us, I take them with a grain of salt at this moment. It is what it is.
Will this poll get Castle in the race? I have no idea. In his most recent comments to the Hill and to his press secretary, Celia Cohen, Castle has pretty much told us that he is not running for reelection to the House, and that his choice is between running for the Senate and retiring.
That is the big ball in the air right now. If Castle doesn’t run, I think it is a lock that Beau Biden runs for the Senate seat. But what is he waiting for? He must be getting call after call, especially after this most recent poll, to implore him to declare for the Senate. Indeed, given the way the national map is setting up for the GOP, Castle is the only Republican, the only Republican in America, that stands a chance of winning a Democratic seat in 2010. And in those calls from both former Presidents Bush, John McCain, John Cornyn, Rudy Giuliani, and other such GOP Illuminati, he most assuredly is getting promises of whatever he needs, including fund raising.
So what is he waiting for? Is the new Republican Party’s hostility towards supposed moderates weighing on him? Is he really scared of a Christine O’Donnell primary? Is he being sincere about being undecided?
This being Delaware, we have to consider the Delaware Way, and what kind of machinations are taking place behind the scenes right now. The Vice President is talking to Castle. Castle is talking to Carper. Carper is talking to Carney. Could it be that Castle is waiting on Biden? Surely, given these poll numbers, he is not fearful of facing Biden, is he? It will still be a competitive race, and that poll only shows the state of race right now with Biden being gone from the scene for a year. Indeed, when Biden returns from his service in Iraq and actually campaigns, coupled with a visit or two from Obama-Biden, we’ll see the race tighten up. But, if I was Castle, I have to be pretty confident in facing the junior Biden. So why is he waiting?
Here is my new theory: Biden is not going to run. And Castle is waiting to announce his decision out of respect for the Bidens, for he doesn’t want to embarrass Beau Biden by making it look like Biden was running away from a showdown with Castle. That poll shows what the service in Iraq has done to him: it has made Beau Biden a non-factor in Delaware politics. Instead, Biden will run for reelection to the Attorney General’s office to reestablish himself in Delaware politics, with a future in Congress or state government before him.
If that happens, does Carney move up to challenge Castle? Or does the Delaware Way take over, with a nobody facing Castle for the Senate and O’Donnell facing Carney?
UPDATE: I had forgotten that the new Senator elected in 2010 will only serve 4 years, until 2014. I think that clinches it. Castle is going to run for Senate, but only serve one term. Biden will run for reelection to AG, and then he will run for Senate in 2014.
The Delaware Way endures.
The Delaware Way Uber Alles
Elections…? We don’t need no stinking elections…
Todd Beaton at MYDD has called the Senate race for Castle. Nothing to see here folks. Move along. move along.
Biden has no record to run on. What’s he gonna say, “Hey, I was elected AG but I didn’t do anything but go to Iraq”?
We gotta hope that Carney moves up, but I think Carper will ask him not to.
Odds are we see Senator Castle (R-DE) for the next 4 years.
Sucks to be us.
Here is my new theory: Biden is not going to run. And Castle is waiting to announce his decision out of respect for the Bidens, for he doesn’t want to embarrass Beau Biden by making it look like Biden was running away from a showdown with Castle. That poll shows what the service in Iraq has done to him: it has made Beau Biden a non-factor in Delaware politics. Instead, Biden will run for reelection to the Attorney General’s office to reestablish himself in Delaware politics, with a future in Congress or state government before him.
My exact thoughts, with the exception of the delay of the announcement. Haven’t thought much about that. Otherwise, this is exactly the scenario that’s been playing in my head a few days now, in addition to the one of you buying me beer, constantly.
Yep.
I don’t know what is going to suck worse.
Watching the sausage get made, or reading Celia wax rhapsodic about how beautiful and delicious the sausage is.
I had forgotten that the new Senator elected in 2010 will only serve 4 years, until 2014. I think that clinches it. Castle is going to run for Senate, but only serve one term. Biden will run for reelection to AG, and then he will run for Senate in 2014.
The Delaware Way endures.
is there really no one else? C’MON there HAS to be a Jack Markell that young people can get behind and help beat the delaware way.
LOL. I just noticed the tiny picture of Protact.
Purely intentional.
LOL. I just noticed the tiny picture of Protact.
DDem got that confused. He’s not part of the “Delaware Way,” but part of the “Delaware GoAway.”
No, Protack is a factor. Surely he will run for one of those offices. He is just a small factor, hence the size of his picture.
LOL, Smitty. I second that remark.
So, if it’s not Beau Biden, who will run against Castle for Senate?
who will run against Castle for Senate?
Some tomato can.
Scott Spencer?
Delaware Dem?
Jason Scott?
Bryon Short?
Ted Blunt?
Oh God. I just had a nightmare….
What if….
Tom Gordon ran for Senate?
KWS?
::screaming now::
Karen Hartley Nagle?
Hey DD…just a quick overview….
What Jason says in 12:
is the actual Delaware Way in action: draft a tomato can to run against opposition to keep said opposition happy for mutual benefit.
On the flip side: Mikey P drafting Mikey ProTomatoCanTak to run against any opposition, thus guaranteeing opposition’s victory for all but 600 Delawarean’s happiness, is an example of the Delaware GoAway. There actually is a difference.
Test tomorrow.
Protack and O’Donnell are sideshows — neither is a real factor except in their own minds.
It was mentioned to me earlier that Son of Clatworthy may be thinking of running for Castle’s seat. Possible or completely bogus?
It’s all a vacuum right now. Anything is possible, seriously.
who will run against Castle for Senate?
Maybe Kaufman will change his mind.
Son of Clatworthy has the same thing going for him that his father did — the ability to bring his own fund-raising to the race. Guys like that are always welcome. Guys like Protack, who bring no money — not so much.
I can see Clatworthy running if Copeland defers. O’Donnell will either primary Castle or primary Clatworthy / Copeland for Congress, and Protack will do the opposite.
Karen Hartley Nagle? Nooooooooooooooo, please, nooooooooooo.
Don’t count out Biden. 1) He will have the issues on his side and more money than Castle. 2) Castle will have to wrestle with issues he’s been able to avoid in the past. 3) Biden is a better speaker (on his best days, Castle is a mumbler) and can campaign more energetically. 4) If it matters, Biden will know more about military and foreign affairs.
Oh, my God I just had a nightmare:
::GNASHING TEETH::
Chris Coons may run for something………. 🙁
At the risk of stirring up Tommy’s mascots, we are fortunate that Chris Coons is county exec.
Chris’ plate is full right now.
Besides the full-asshattery of pearl-clutchers DD and UI on the fainting couch over a non-starter KWS – – – and the shudder of Miss Susan upon contemplating wee Chris Coons spending down some of his personal hundreds of Gore-tec millions to buy a seat in DC, what I have been hoping against hope is that we get a run from Ted Kaufman.
He is doing a fantastic job so far.
I say lets talk him into holding down the fort should Beau Biden decide to forego the chance.
I think this is the first time I have ever been called a pearl clutcher. I suppose it is because I dared to offer unpleasant views about such people powered candidates like Tom Gordon.
::roll eyes::
what I have been hoping against hope is that we get a run from Ted Kaufman.
He is doing a fantastic job so far.
I say lets talk him into holding down the fort should Beau Biden decide to forego the chance.
That’s not bad. But I think Senator Ted has been too public about not running. Also – It would be using the Delaware Way against the Delaware Way which might cause a rip in the fabric of space and time.
Did I mention Gordon, DD? No.
I am Karen’s friend and when asshattery abounds, I’ll step in the way. She isn’t about to run for fucking Congress and if you knew squat you’d still know that.
🙂
Jason, if a deal is cut for Castle out of DEM whole cloth, it won’t be a fabric worth saving.
We have a solid year to pump up Ted’s amazing beginning and ask him to consider going for four more if Castle is the GOP candidate and if young Biden won’t step up.
Del Lib–Let me be the first to extend my condolescences on your loss to the Delaware Way.
Please find comfort in knowing that at last the Delaware Way may have self-corrected to promote the best possible person.
May time bring you to a better acceptance and understanding, during this difficult reality. And Jason, please, take all the time you need, because in the end, Mr. Castle will still be your senator too.
Joanne has a point, Jason. Without Castle, would you lose blogging purpose? Would you become a planet without orbit…or a planet without sun?
I know she is not about to run for Congress.
Nancy, I was just speculating as to what Democrat could run if Biden was out. And yes, I don’t want to see her run again based on her past failures. Do you have to be unpleasant all the time?
RSmitty… there will always be Carper.
mmmm, stupid me,
I read the frickin name as Karen Weldin Stewart and reacted to the idea of it. My bad.
KWS running against Castle is a vision worth pearl-clutching over, knowing Karen has no ambitions beyond her ken. [nod and no comment to those who feel KWS is beyond it now].
DD, UI, I will join you on the couch when and if KHN puts her hat in that ring again. But I know that KHN won’t be running, seeing as how she told me so, with some finality, last weekend.