BREAKING & Comment Rescue: Castle NOT Running for the Senate, The Tea Leaves Speak
John Manifold on 14 July 2009 at 12:41 pm:
Not to worry. Looks like Jason was right all along. Castle filed his report today, showing no Senate-level activity.Total second-quarter receipts: $124,000, only $14,000 of which was donated by individuals. The rest came from PAC’s, who routinely throw unsolicited envelopes through the transom.
Interesting. He is not on a campaign footing.
However, this is not to say that if he jumped in the National GOP would not bust open every piggy-bank from here to Guam in order to throw money at Castle.
Tags: Comment Rescue, Mike Castle
I’d say those are some pretty big tea leaves, though. How much money does he have on hand? Is there a link to the report?
I just crossed posted this at Daily Kos – to get the cognoscenti take on it.
I think he is sitting on a million.
Links:
FEC Report
Political Wire:
Less than $1M COH, that’s not very much.
How much money do you need to win a fixed race?
Well said.
Check out Sestak:
A competitive veteran like Castle knows that to win an open Senate seat in this environment, he would be competing against Olympian fund-raising. Whoever the Democrats nominate will be able to raise major cash; if it’s Biden, the cascade of funds would be unprecedented.
Two years ago, after the Spivack race, Castle raised $230,000 from individuals in the comparable quarter – second quarter of 2007. He followed that with $211,000 from individuals in 3Q ’07, another $190,000 in the fourth quarter.
Things have changed. Castle basically hasn’t raised a finger to raise funds since Election Day. That inaction is unprecedented for Castle, and speaks volumes about his intentions.
“Whoever the Democrats nominate will be able to raise major cash; if it’s Biden, the cascade of funds would be unprecedented.”
I seriously doubt the first part of that sentence. Anyone except Biden would enter a race against Castle trailing badly in name recognition, and state Democrats aren’t exactly swimming in money these days. The only way a Democrat other than Biden gets major cash is if national Democratic supporters flood this zone the way national GOP sources are expected to if Castle runs.
BTW, Biden has an enormous set of problems of his own, in that he still hasn’t held an adult job for more than a year at a time, and lots of Democrats are mad at his Daddy for elevating Kaufman instead of John Carney. To become AG, he beat a first-time candidate without campaigning skills by what, 8%? Castle hasn’t had to run a real campaign in a long time, but I think he’ll be able to muster it up to beat Biden.
“in that he still hasn’t held an adult job for more than a year at a time”
Not sure how his IRAQ deployment wouldn’t count by election time as I think he will be there at least a year. Regardless of how one feels about the political dynasty issue, you can’t ignore the fact that he served his country, when a lot of people (Cheney) “couldn’t be bothered.”
“but I think he’ll be able to muster it up to beat Biden”
Maybe so, as everyone except for Jason 🙂 seems to like Castle personally. It doesn’t look to me that Castle really has the heart for it anymore. If he was running for anything, you’d think his fund raising would have a little more effectivness.
Open Senate seat in blue state means much Democratic money, especially with Carney victory an uncontested layup, and with Bob Menendez on the job. Even if Castle runs and Biden doesn’t, I expect the Democrats to put up a significant candidate. Even against Roth, Democrats always had A-list challenger. Remember, Castle failed to reach 60 pct against KHN.
I agree with that. The national Dems will not simply give away a Senate seat just because Tom Carper wants to. The problem would be candidate recruitment because it would be tough to find an A lister that would cross Don Carper.
Remember, Castle failed to reach 60 pct against KHN.
…and KWS beat a superior choice in another Blue tidal wave year, most likely on registration alone. Point is, I think you have to also seriously consider the sentiment of the overall climate in 2008 (and 2006) when making that point. While I don’t think the Republicans are going to mount any significant comeback in 2010, I do think the zenith has been already reached in terms of landslide margins for Dems.
held an adult job
*
Geezer’e respect for the military is unprecedented.
Still would like to see you provide links to your post content source, Jason. Context and all. Just sayin’.
/left hangin’