My Take On the Carney vs. Fill-In-the-Blank Congressional Race

Yesterday, the News-Journal’s Ginger Gibson wrote that the upcoming race to fill Metamucil Mike’s Oxford loafers would “guarantee(s) the  first real contest in decades” for Delaware’s lone and lonely congressional seat. University of Delaware political science professor Joe Pika, who really should know better, said:

“It’s likely to be a true campaign for the first time in quite a long while.”

No it’s not. And anyone who is paying attention knows it’s not. If John Carney runs for the seat, he will win and he will win big. He is one of Delaware’s top vote-getters and people are comfortable with him. Kinda like people were with the pre-fainting spell Bill Roth. And, RNC propaganda to the contrary, Delaware voters did not reject Carney. Democratic primary voters narrowly chose Markell over him.

I’m speaking as someone who strongly supported Jack Markell in the gubernatorial primary, who felt that we needed a clean break from the disastrous Minner Administration, and who questioned whether John had the ‘vision thing’ to be Governor. You don’t need the ‘vision thing’ to be a member of the House. And I’d be thrilled to have a reliable Democrat like Carney in that position.

Seriously, does anyone really think that the Motley Crue of Rethugs mentioned in the News-Journal article would have a chance against Carney?

Having said that, the list of sacrificial fatted calves listed there offers Great Fun Quotient Potential.  So, let’s examine them a bit closer, shall we?:

Most frequently mentioned as possible congressional candidates: state Reps. Greg Lavelle, Tom Kovach, Debbie Hudson, state Sen. Joe Booth and former state Sen. Charlie Copeland.

In reverse Fun Quotient Potential order:

Joe Booth ain’t runnin’. He’s right where he wants to be. A conservative Sussex Countian sitting in the State Senate. He can grandstand, doesn’t have to do any heavy lifting, and, based on Sussex County tradition, can likely hold his seat for as long as he wants. He’s also smart enough to know that (a) his statewide name recognition is virtually zilch and (b) his brand of politics will not work upstate. Consider his name being mentioned as a ‘courtesy mention’.

Debbie Hudson (please don’t call her Debbie Capano, she hates being called Debbie Capano even though her marital affiliation provided her with the inspiration, and financial means, for her life’s work–arguing that Delaware’s wealthiest are overtaxed) won’t run. Or, at least, she won’t run unless she’s decided that she wants out of Dover and is willing to have her name on the ballot as the Rethug standard-bearer. Although she is generally ‘good’ on social issues, she is the General Assembly’s staunchest defender of the rapacious Fortunate Families. If she’s on the ballot, it means that the Rethugs have given up.

Tom Kovach might run, and he’d be making a big mistake if he did. I suspect that what passes for Republican leadership very well could be putting strong pressure on one of their very few promising newcomers to make the race. And I don’t know him well enough to know whether his ego is such that he thinks that he can parlay his surprising win for the vacant 6th Representative District seat into a successful run for Congress. He can’t. He will lose, he will lose big and, by the way, he won’t even be a State Rep anymore. Kovach’s entry into the race would also signal that Rethugs have given up any hope of regaining the majority in the State House of Representatives. There is no one else in that strongly D-leaning district who is likely to hold the seat in a general election against a credible candidate. And there are plenty of credible potential candidates for the D’s in the 6th. Maybe Kovach thinks that he can come back from a defeat and defeat Mike Katz for the State Senate seat in 2012. If so, Kovach is not factoring in reapportionment, where he very likely would find himself in a much more challenging Senate district than his current one. Even if he’s still in Katz’ district, you can bet that the district will be drawn to be more hospitable to a Democratic incumbent than the current one.

Charles Bouvier de Flanders Copeland has become, much like his eccentric uncle, Delaware’s new Steve Forbes. Heir to more $$’s than he knows what to do with, he is drawn to every crackpot economic theory out there as long as it keeps the dollars where they belong–in his family’s pocket. He’s gotten stranger as the years have gone on, anonymously underwriting seeming ‘grassroots’ anti-tax protests, including the Delaware Tea Party; having a clandestine hand in the Caesar Rodney Institute, an alleged nonpartisan think-tank promoting his crackpot economics and populated by ex-staffers and financial supporters; and concocting the supposedly brilliant idea of running for Lt. Governor , where he would get all of the credit if he won and none of the blame if he lost. He has already enriched us by delivering on his Fun Quotient Potential, and we at DL must continue to nurture it. Why waste time with lunatic fringers like Prozac when we’ve got a loony tune with MONEY and who is willing to throw it around? I’m not sure from whence the wackiness comes, perhaps a duPont family sleepover gone awry, but Mr. To The Manor Born is a resource to be treasured. Please run, Charlie.

However, the candidate with by far the most Fun Quotient Potential is serial bloviator Greg “Thanks for Mentioning My Name. Otherwise, I’d have to Send Out a Press Release Mentioning Myself” Lavelle. Greg Lavelle is to the Delaware media what U. S. Rep. Peter King is to the national media: a Rethug Talking Point machine always ready to jump in front of any microphone that surfaces. Here are some of Peter King’s Greatest Hits:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMydUdKtA_Q[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcBaIsJQvdQ&feature=related[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LMxo0C4z3I[/youtube]

Monsignor Lavelle is perhaps best known for defending the Catholic Church’s institutional lack of control over pedophile priests by claiming that things are just as bad in the public schools. His chief legislative ‘accomplishment’ was to delay justice for victims of these unHoly predators by trying to force this false equivalency into law.

Lavelle could make the race, but I doubt that he will. He would have to give up his State Rep seat. While he is vulnerable for reelection given the right opponent, he certainly has a better chance of being reelected than of taking out Carney. And, members of the General Assembly have often talked a good game, but rarely stepped forward, especially if they would have to give up their current office.

Having said that, there are a couple of reasons why Lavelle just might make the race. A: Even by political standards, Lavelle ranks near the top of the food chain when it comes to narcissism; and B. Maybe, just maybe he’s worked out a deal to be Rick Jensen’s wingnut successor on WDEL or, at the least, permanent guest host, should this political thing not work out.

My conclusion: This is about as far from a ‘wide open’ race as you can get. The RNC is not gonna toss a whole lot of money at this lost cause. But it does have high Fun Quotient Potential. C’mon, Rethugs, Delaware Liberal Nation turns its lonely eyes to you, woo-woo-woo.