The Polling Report [10.10.12] — Apocalypse Now Edition with a Senate Forecast Update
For the first time in what seems like months, we have a state flipping sides. A poll out of Colorado gives Romney a slim lead, and so we change the color on the map. This is the nadir of the campaign for Obama supporters, waiting on a ledge for two more Presidential debates and tomorrow’s Vice Presidential debate to erase our horrid memories (and the media’s) of last week’s unpleasantness. The good news is that the Romney debate bounce is already fading, with his best polling days (in terms of samples) being Thursday and Friday last week, and then Obama mounting a comeback on Saturday and Sunday most likely due to the excellent jobs report showing over 200,000 jobs being added in September, August and July.
Nate Cohn: “Over the next few days, more surveys will weigh-in on the size of Romney’s post-debate bounce. But it’s important to keep an eye on whether the polls are measuring the peak of Romney’s bounce, which looks like it was around 4 points before the polls with Sunday interviews pointed toward a smaller one, or whether they’re measuring the weekend and later, when there are signs that Romney’s bounce began to fade. Resolving the size of Romney’s bounce and whether it lasted are two important, but separate questions. We’ll need to be careful to track both.”
Meanwhile, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll still finds Mitt Romney’s favorability rating underwater, though the last debate helped raise his favorables. And though President Obama had a bad debate, he did not damage his favorability either. In fact, he increased it. Romney is now seen favorably by 47% of registered voters overall, unfavorably by 51%; Obama’s rating is better, 55% to 44%.
Amy Walter: “The good news for Romney: He’s seen a boost in his favorability ratings. The bad news: More still see him unfavorably than favorably. There have only been four presidential candidates in recent history who were underwater in favorability, at least briefly. All lost. John Kerry and Jimmy Carter in September, Walter Mondale, George H.W. Bush in October.”
So the roller coaster continues…
NATIONAL POLLS
American Research Group: Romney 48, Obama 47, Others 1
Gallup Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 47 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 46 (RV)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Romney 47, Obama 45
Ipsos/Reuters: Obama 45, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 45, Romney 42 (RV)
PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU: Romney 49, Obama 47
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 48
UPI/CVoter: Obama 48, Romney 47
Zogby/Washington Times: Obama 46, Romney 45, Others 2
Pew: Romney 49, Obama 45 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 46 (RV)
STATE POLLS
COLORADO (American Research Group): Romney 50, Obama 46–Slim Romney
MASSACHUSETTS (MassINC for WBUR): Obama 52, Romney 36, Others 2
MASSACHUSETTS (YouGov for Univ. of Massachusetts): Obama 55, Romney 34, Others 2 (LV); Obama 55, Romney 30, Others 3 (RV)
MASSACHUSETTS (Western New England College): Obama 63, Romney 33
The average is 56.25 to 33.25, or a Strong Obama lead.
MINNESOTA (PPP): Obama 53, Romney 43–Strong Obama
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama 47, Romney 41–Lean Obama
OHIO (American Research Group): Romney 48, Obama 47, Others 1
OHIO (CNN/ORC): Obama 51, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 53, Romney 43 (RV)
OHIO (SurveyUSA–link updated): Obama 45, Romney 44, Others 3
The average is Obama 49, Romney 45.5, or a Slim Obama lead.
MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Obama 48, Romney 45
MICHIGAN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Obama 49, Romney 46
The average is Obama 48.5, Romney 45.5, or a Slim Obama lead.
NORTH DAKOTA (Mason Dixon): Romney 54, Obama 40–Strong Romney
SENATE POLLS
According to the polls in various states over the last 10 days, the Dems will either hold steady, or pick up 1 or 2 seats. That’s pretty good considering the bad debate week.
FL-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 51, Connie Mack IV (R) 40–Strong Dem
MA-SEN (MassINC for WBUR): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 48, Elizabeth Warren (D) 45, Others 1
MA-SEN (YouGov for Univ. of Massachusetts): Elizabeth Warren (D) 48, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 45 (LV); Elizabeth Warren (D) 48, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 43 (RV)
MA-SEN (Harstad Research for the Warren campaign): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 44
MA-SEN (Western New England College): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 45 (LV); Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 44 (RV)
The average is Warren 48.5 to Brown 44.8, or a Slim Dem lead.
MN-SEN (PPP): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 57, Kurt Bills (R) 31–Strong Dem
NM-SEN (GBA Strategies for the Heinrich campaign): Martin Heinrich (D) 51, Heather Wilson (R) 39, Jon Barrie (IAP)–Strong Dem
MI-SEN (EPIC-MRA): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 55, Pete Hoesktra (R) 35
MI-SEN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 51, Pete Hoekstra (R) 43
The average is Stabenow 53, Hoekstra 39, or Strong Dem.
NV-SEN (Precision Opinion): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 45, Shelley Berkley (D) 43–Slim GOP
ND-SEN (Mason Dixon): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 47, Rick Berg (R) 47–Tied
VA-SEN (PPP): Tim Kaine (D) 51, George Allen (R) 44–Lean Dem
WA-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 53, Michael Baumgartner (R) 40–Strong Dem
WI-SEN (PPP): Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 46–Slim Dem
If there is one thing that Democrats know how to do well, it is panic.
Yeah, we corner the market on it.
No kidding. I still haven’t seen the entire debate (saw a small part early, then heard the rest via radio) and am pretty stunned at the difference between how this came off to me (without visuals) and how this debate came off to the folks who saw it.
Romney will probably need to be polling 10 points ahead in Colorado before the state actually goes to him. The under-polling of Latinos and the Union/Dem Machine in 2010 delivered both Colorado and Nevada in the Senate races when the polling made them look like lost causes. The under-estimates of the Dem performance were on the order of 5-7 points, if I recall correctly.
@cassandra: It was 95% a visual thing. Among other things, the way the debate was filmed in split screen made it look like Romney was looking confidently at Obama but that Obama was looking away from it. A small thing, but cumulative over 90 minutes. (In reality he wasn’t, but after awhile you’d forget that.)
The other part was that if you turned the sound off and only watched the visuals, Romney looked far more comfortable and confident, and there is a distinct sense that Obama looked like he did not want to be there.
And my theory is this: for people who haven’t followed the issues to this point in the campaign (let’s say a near majority of likely voters), the visuals are more important. Only geeks and wonks like all of us would torture ourselves by listening to it on the radio.
Thanks, Steve, I guess I should just go watch it. I just didn’t want to sit at my computer and my TV that can get CSPAN over the internet couldn’t connect. So the radio was the only choice.