El Somnambulo Predicts ‘Em All For You
My Delaware predictions, with pithy comments:
President of the United States: Obama/Biden again win Delaware handily. Down-ballot races could well be impacted by (lack of) R enthusiasm, especially upstate.
United States Senate: Tom Carper, Delaware’s senior DLC cheerleader and in effect the Father of Delaware DLC politics, wins easily. Only an egomaniacal madman like Alex Pires could almost turn Carper into a sympathetic figure. There was a viable insurgency campaign to be run against Carper, but Pires chose not to run it. Steely Dan put it best:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9QVNbUPzgM[/youtube]
“Show business kids making movies of themselves… You know they don’t give a fuck about anybody else…”
I think Kevin Wade comes in second, but it doesn’t really matter. Wonder what’s the over/under on the date that Carper first caves to the Rethuglicans in the new Congress. I’m betting before January of 2013. You know, when the Rethugs threaten fiscal disaster if D’s don’t retreat on higher taxes for the wealthy…
U. S. Representative: John Carper, Jr. Carney defeats Tom Kovach, who may or may not get credit for running a campaign. I don’t know what’s more depressing: the fact that the R’s put up so little fight or the fact that the D’s are supplicants at best and Republicrats at worst. The meme of Tom Kovach as some sort of Rethug savior has run its course.
Governor: OK, time for a rant. If Rethugs are going to lament ‘one-party rule’, it’s up to THEM to recruit credible candidates for statewide office. Not these mom-and-pop candidacies with virtually no funding from the Party. Oh, I understand that many Greenville R’s like Markell, and that’s fine. But this is up and down the ticket. Believe it or not, there are a few promising R candidates in down-ballot races. They’re the ones whose chances are weakened b/c the R’s have failed to field and/or fund credible candidates. I mean, who the bleep’s coming out to vote b/c they’re caught up in the palpable excitement of the Cragg campaign? So, when you hear Rethugs like Sigler, Lavelle and Copeland lament one-party rule, tell ’em to look in the mirror b/c that’s where the blame resides. Markell trounces Cragg. On merit and on overwhelmingly-superior electoral firepower (yes, a deliberately metaphorical NRA reference. His gun’s just bigger than your’s, John).
Lieutenant Governor: My favorite Democrat defeats Sher ‘We Built This’ Valenzuela. Valenzuela parlayed her (less than) 15 minutes of fame into some notoriety, so Matt Denn may not quite get Markell’s margin. But it will be huge. In some ways, Valenzuela serves as a proxy for the entire Rethug Party: Someone who built her business with government contracts and then talks about how she ‘built this’ with no help from the government. Oh, and she’s also a faux Hispanic. Only in the old and white Republican Party could someone who married a Latino and took his last name be considered a minority. I’ll be interested to see if this is a ‘one-and-done‘ candidacy, or whether Valenzuela falls in love with the sound of her own voice. Bonus chutzpah points for throwing Kevin Wade under the bus.
Insurance Commissioner: Doesn’t get more depressing than this. For those of you with Blue Cross/Blue Shield, how do you like that Highmark merger now? Delaware’s most unqualified elected official will have four more years to ply her incompetence. I’m voting for Ben Mobley, but what I said above about mom-and-pop candidacies applies here. I’ve been around a long time, but I don’t think I’ve seen anyone as unsuited as Karen Weldin Stewart to hold public office. A tribute to vapid narcissism. She and Andria Viola Bennett should friend each other on Facebook.
New Castle County Executive: Tom Gordon, big. At least he’s competent. You know, when you have events like Superstorm Sandy, you look for competence in your public officials. Gordon passes that test. I don’t know whether he’s learned his lessons from the last time, but I do know that Mark Blake has not made a compelling case for his own candidacy.
New Castle County President: How far has the R brand fallen that they actually embrace Mike Protack as a plausible candidate? Rev. Chris Bullock wins easily.
STATE SENATE RACES
Senate District 4: One of the most intriguing races this year. Incumbent D Dr. Michael Katz vs. State Representative Greg Lavelle. You might think that Lavelle would return this seat to the R column following Katz’ surprise win over a conservative John Clatworthy four years ago. After all, there is a 1400 R registration edge in the district, and Lavelle has name recognition. But I’m picking Katz. Here’s why. The R registration edge is down from about a 2.5K advantage in 2008. Katz has been an incumbent for four years, meaning he has four years of constituent service and name recognition under his belt. Lavelle has only two election districts from his previous district in this senatorial district. Even with the R edge, this is Markell’s home district, and he’s been working hard for Katz. Katz has, according to many sources, been out-campaigning Lavelle, especially when it comes to shoe leather. Finally, I think Katz has a secret weapon in pro-choice/anti-patriarchal woman voters. Lavelle helped purge Priscilla Rakestraw from her position as Republican National Committeewoman, and Lavelle is the most tireless legislative mouthpiece for the worst pedophilic excesses of the Catholic Church in Delaware. Katz 53, Lavelle 47.
Senate District 5: The big question here is whether socially progressive/moderate voters, particularly women, catch on to the fact that R incumbent Cathy Cloutier has been lying to them. Which she has. Not only did she just get an ‘A’ rating from the right-wing Delaware Family Policy Council , up from a B-plus two years ago. She’s also endorsed by the virulently anti-choice A Rose and A Prayer and the National Rifle Association. She got those grades by taking stands against equal rights based on sexual orientation. Also, against female reproductive and health rights. And generally against the positions of a majority of Brandywine Hundred voters. She provided those answers herself. The only question is whether Cloutier’s ability to appear empathetic and to fortuitously show up at election year civic events bearing checks enable her to hoodwink the voters one more time. Her opponent, Chris Counihan, has been endorsed by both gay rights organizations and Planned Parenthood. He has not equivocated on these issues, he has not answered surveys in diametrically-opposite ways in order to secure endorsements from two distinct organizations representing distinctly-opposite views, as Cloutier has. Democrat Counihan is a policy wonk. Not unlike, wait for it, Phil Cloutier. He’d be an excellent senator. But Tony DeLuca did the Democrat no favors here during redistricting, perhaps as a reward for Cloutier’s skipping a key vote (sound familiar?) when DeLuca’s leadership was being challenged. I’m not optimistic that enough voters are paying attention, so I predict that Cloutier rides her phony ’empathy’ to another term, 51%-49%. More than any other race, I hope to be proven wrong here.
Senate District 6: Well, I worry about this one. Why? Because the ‘conventional wisdom’ appears to be that R Ernesto Lopez has the edge on D Andrew Staton. And I feel the same way. And I’m often wrong, but especially wrong about Lower Slower. Still, when in doubt, I’m gonna go with the candidate who is more acceptable to the center. And that’s Lopez. He appears to have more successfully solidified his base following the primary. Plus, Lopez did everyone a favor, R’s and D’s alike, by dispatching Glen Urquhart. I think he’s the candidate with whom more voters feel comfortable, and I think he notches a 53%-47% victory.
Senate District 8: R’s recruited Greg Lavelle BFF Bill Stritzinger to challenge Dave Sokola, who is arguably Delaware’s Best State Senator. This is the race that Sen. Liane Sorenson opted out of, instead choosing retirement. I think Sokola, who is a relentless campaigner, would have edged Sorenson, and I know that he will defeat Stritzinger.
Senate District 11: Once Evan Queitsch is dispatched by rising D star Bryan Townsend, who will warn the world of the eee-vils of Agenda 21? Never mind. World’s not paying attention. Not even on Hallowe’en, yet another United Nations conspiracy.
Senate District 12: D Nicole Poore picks up this seat from incumbent R Dori Connor. Won’t be close. Connor doesn’t have the support of portions of the coalition that propped her up before, her district is significantly changed after redistricting, and the numbers render the district unwinnable for an R in Connor’s circumstances: 18,171 D; 7821 R; and 7727 I. Plus, Nicole Poore was a great find. If my predictions are correct, the Senate will have at least three new rising stars: D’s Poore and Townsend and R Lopez.
Senate District 14: R’s are high on political newcomer Scott Unruh and, under different circumstances, he might be capable of springing a surprise. Sen. Bruce Ennis has been around a long time and may not reflect the changing profile of this previously more rural district. But the numbers are tough, especially for a Presidential year election: 13,898 D; 8347 R; and 7242 I. And Ennis has always done his constituent homework. If Unruh keeps this close, Ennis may decide that this could be his last term. He’s been a good public official. Unruh is an R worth watching.
Senate District 15: First-term R incumbent Dave Lawson is Number One with a bullet. Which the ballots will reflect. The D’s seem to have gotten a pretty good ‘name on the ballot’ for this race in Kathleen Cooke, a special education teacher in the Smyrna School District. She’s running hard, looks like she’s having fun doing it, and may well have a political future. But, to put it mildly, she doesn’t have the right profile for this farmer-tan-red western Kent County district.
Senate District 19: Brian Pettyjohn turns back the challenge of Jane Hovington. Whether or not his name appears on the ballot. For comedic purposes alone, I’d prefer that his name not appear. That’s right. Any and all “chickens with their heads cut off” analogies apply. Which, come to think of it, would reflect the behavior of western Sussex County Rethugs should a black civil rights leader win the seat.
Senate District 20: This seat flips from D to R as R Rep. Gerald Hocker succeeds the retiring Sen. George Howard Bunting. Bunting was one of the most conscientious public officials I ever met, and I wish him good health and long life. D Richard W. Eakle IS the proverbial name on the ballot, and the results will reflect it.
Senate District 21: Q: Why doesn’t this R pick-up opportunity matter? A: Because it’s gonna flip in 2014 anyway. Only with a different R. Which is why I think it stays D this time. Confused? Let me try to explain. Long-time D Senator Bob Venables is running for one more term. Due to redistricting, a two-year term. A not-so-secret succession plan is already in place. Venables would retire and State Rep. Daniel Short would run to replace him and would almost certainly win. Yep, just like Hocker succeeding Bunting in the 20th. R Bryant Richardson, a publisher of weekly Sussex newspapers, would change that equation, were he to win. And it’s possible he could. But I think that Venables, who is hardly a liberal or a moderate, has built enough goodwill that he’ll get his two year valedictory.
STATE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RACES
R. D. 6: While I wasn’t thrilled with the way the lines for this district were redrawn, I still see Debra Heffernan as the heavy favorite in this Brandywine Hundred district. It was a real feat for her to beat Tom Kovach, and her opponent, Eric Taylor, has not raised much money. He’s no Tom Kovach. And it’s still a D district. Heffernan wins.
R. D. 7: Gotta give late-starter R Dan Lepre props. He has a great sign team, which has boosted his name recognition. But he’s running against popular incumbent Bryon Short, Lepre only recently became a resident of the 7th due to redistricting, and he’s not well-known. Still, this Mount Pleasant teacher is a credible R who might have a future…especially if he also lives in Harris McDowell’s Senate district. Short easily.
R. D. 8: Quin Johnson, one of Joanne Christian’s favorite legislators, will handily retain this Appoquinimink area district. It was next to impossible to find out anything regarding his opponent, R Matt Brown. Other than he once ran for the Appoquinimink School Board. And that he didn’t fill out the questionnaire for the school board race.
R. D. 10: I’ve demonstrated my cluelessness when it comes to this district every single time I’ve made a prediction about it. Which should prove to be good news for challenger Bob Rhodunda because I’m predicting that incumbent D Dennis E. Williams wins reelection. It will be close as Williams weathered a too-close-for-comfort primary, and Rhodunda presumably continued to campaign after losing last time. However, the registration advantage in this district has grown, and there are now close to 2K more registered D’s than R’s. Plus, it’s a presidential election year. Williams is a dependable progressive, I hope he wins, and I think he takes a 52% to 48% victory.
R. D. 11: This new district, which straddles the New Castle and Kent County lines, features a D registration edge but also features a rural R ‘culture’. Specifically, a Smyrna/Clayton-type culture. I think that R Jeffrey Spiegelman overcomes the nominal D registration edge, and beats D Lynne Newlin. Not on merit, as Spiegelman cuts/pastes that line asserting that “(p)eople should not be coddled by their government.” So, if you need constituent assistance, don’t expect to be coddled by your state rep. Based on his pictures, he loves him some NASCAR and some shootin’ rifles. His entire campaign is a series of snapshots of similar cultural touchstones. Newlin would be infinitely preferable, but this is good ol’ boy territory.
R. D. 17: Mike Mulrooney is a low-key, but effective, legislator. I’ve always liked him. He faces perennial Republican Party candidate Laura Brown. He easily wins this New Castle area district contest.
R. D. 19: The real election was the Democratic Primary. D Kim Williams handily defeats R Dennis Cini to become Bob Gilligan’s successor. A worthy successor indeed.
R. D. 20: Probably the closest thing to good vs. evil we’ve got this cycle. Arrogant bully-boy cop Steve Smyk vs. Marie Mayor, whose linked bio says it all. While you’d doubt that Sussex County would be capable of electing such a qualified candidate, Mayor easily won a very impressive primary campaign against two legitimate challengers, and did it without creating any rifts in the Party. She has built a very effective grassroots organization which, of course, was already in place for the general following the primary. I predict that Mayor narrowly defeats yet another state cop seeking a second (or third) pension. As if we need any more of them in Dover.
R. D. 22: I’d like to thank David Ellis for taking on the thankless (irony duly noted) task of challenging incumbent R Rep. Joe Miro. Miro wins, though, in one of the very few guaranteed R House seats remaining in New Castle County.
R. D. 23: An upset is possible here, as the R’s have recruited the closest thing to former Rep. Tim Boulden that they could find. Mark Doughty comes across as a relatively apolitical good-natured guy. His chances would be greater in a non-presidential year. It will be competitive, but I look for Progressive Democrats of Delaware leader Paul Baumbach to win. Say 53%-47%.
R. D. 28: R Chris Sylvester is straight out of the Young Republican cookie-cutter mold. He is running against incumbent Bill ‘Lumpy’ Carson, Honorary Mayor of Happy Hour. Sylvester started late, and the registration figures are 7523 D; 3527 R; and 3698 I. Carson wins, but I’ll be interested to see whether Sylvester outperforms the registration.
R. D. 29: One of the best legislative races of the year. R Rep. Lincoln Willis, who is among the very few promising GOP young guns in the General Assembly, is facing a tested and savvy campaigner in Trey Paradee. Paradee almost defeated incumbent Rep. Pam Thornburg in 2008. Paradee has skilfully carved up Willis’ voting record at a series of public debates/candidate forums. This is especially important b/c this district has been redrawn, Willis has lost several of his key stronghold election districts, primarily to the new 11th RD, and these debates often are voters’ first introduction to the candidates. In addition, Paradee maintains that the key voting bloc this time around will be people who have moved to Delaware in the past ten years. The Willis name is well-known in the area due to the auto dealership his family runs. This can go either way, but I’m predicting that Willis ekes out a win, based on remaining family goodwill. It’s not like you have to live next to the dealership to buy a car from there. And Willis is a better candidate than Thornburg was in 2008. Win or lose, both Willis and Paradee have great political futures should they decide to stay in the game.
R. D. 31: The R’s think that they have a promising newcomer in Samuel Chick, who was placed on the ballot when Ron Poliquin ran afoul of the law. The D’s have incumbent Darryl Scott, who has established himself as one of the best thinkers and legislators in Dover. I look for big things from Scott, including a strong victory on Tuesday.
R. D. 32: Betcha that when Pete Schwartzkopf redrew the lines to make this a safe seat for Brad Bennett, he had no inkling that he was making it a safe seat for Andria Viola Bennett. The very idea of John Viola and Andria Viola Bennett serving in the same General Assembly merely supports Al Mascitti’s argument that the number of members in this august body should be shrunk. Viola pere et fille are at least doing their part to shrink the collective IQ of the institution. I can hardly wait for 2014 when a (presumably) chastened Brad Bennett tries to get his old seat back from his current wife. I’m thinking of copyrighting the idea right now for a reality TV series. You’ll note that I haven’t yet mentioned R candidate Ellis Parrott, a former magistrate who is running like a former magistrate. In a district with a 2-1 D registration edge, the new wife takes the place of her incarcerated husband.
R. D. 33: This conservative Kent County District surprisingly sent mild-mannered D Bob Walls to Dover for two terms. Walls lost in 2010 to R Harold Peterman, who should easily turn back the challenge of D John Robbins.
R. D. 34: I think it’s cool that a moderate R black educator represents this district in Dover. I don’t see that changing this year. Incumbent Don Blakey defeats D Ted Yacucci who, as you can see, has at least thought about the issues facing the district.
R. D. 37: D Beth McGinn is the real deal. Strong supporter of tenant’s rights, a leader in the American Legion Auxiliary. She has a puncher’s chance against incumbent R Ruth Briggs King, who takes a backseat to no other legislator when it comes to screwing tenants. McGinn got started late, though, and that could cost her. King wins, but by a margin that should encourage McGinn to keep on running for 2014.
R. D. 38: By all accounts (both D’s and R’s), former State Rep. Shirley Price is running a better campaign than her Republican opponent, Ronald Gray. They are running for the seat currently held by Gerald Hocker, who is seeking a state senate seat. Problem is that the registration figures are daunting: 6250 D; 7826 R; and 3672 I. When you consider that registration generally overstates D votes in Sussex, it’s difficult for me to see a pathway to victory for Price here. I predict Gray wins, but I encourage you all to talk me down.
R. D. 40: The (ultra-) right Reverend Tim Dukes takes Biff Lee’s seat in the General Assembly. D Benjamin Lowe doesn’t stand a chance.
R. D. 41: Admit it. The Delaware General Assembly would be a much duller body without the Law Abidin’ John Atkins in it. (Memo to Pete: Uh, you might want to take John away from the Corrections Committee this time around. You know, the cheap labor thing, the tire-burning thing, the wife thing, the kid thing, the missing paperwork thing…) Atkins will defeat extreme developers’ rights mouthpiece Richard G. Collins, and step in something bad at least two times in the next two years.
SPECIAL BONUS PICK:
Sussex County Councilwoman Joan Deaver easily turns back the challenge of Don Ayotte, and everyone breathes easier.
Damn, you sure got your money’s worth from me this time. Unless, of course you place a wager or two based on these predictions. Just remember: You get what you pay for.
Tags: 2012 Delaware Elections, El Somnambulo, Steve Tanzer Delaware
The voting block of mobile home tenants should put McGinn in office. I’ll take Paradee 52/48 in his favor.
oh sher valenzuela has long been in love with hearing her own voice. Sad to say this will not be the end of her political aspirations, but I feel for her quiet little hard working husband. He does all the work and all she does is beg for more government handouts.
So wait, you say RD12 is Poore vs. Connor? But the Ballot
SAYS Hudson as the only Repub candidate?
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/polling_places/2012/gen_sam/gen058.pdf
No, you read that wrong, Kay. RD12 is not covered as Debbie Capano Hudson is unopposed. El Som covered SD12, which is Connor v. Poore.
no worries! thanks!
Staton has sent out numerous negative mailers, and apparently more in the pipeline in the remaining week, against a candidate, Lopez, who is widely liked and respected. Bad move on Staton’s part after pledging to keep the campaign positive. Negative ads are supposed to work, that’s why candidates use them, but in a small state like Delaware where we are all one or two degrees from knowing everyone, this was a serious miscalculation on Staton’s part when integrity in the legislator is such a serious consideration. It’s going to blow back, harder than Sandy’s winds I think.
@ST: He’s doing it because he’s already losing.
I’m not surprised to hear people think Staton is going to lose. Outside of the most active in the party, Andy really only known in Rehoboth. This is a big district, part of which even votes at Del-Tech in Georgetown. As a whole, the district has been represented over the past 10 years by George Bunting, George Carey, Joe Booth, Ruth Briggs-King, Gary Simpson and Pete Schwartzkopf. Out of that group, only Pete is what can be described as progressive. The difference between Pete and Andy is that Pete was well known, ran in the Reho area, and had State police “bona fides” which Andy does not. I think Andy is a solid candidate and would be a great Senator. I think the district as a whole, however, is runs more conservative than the registration numbers reflect. There seems to be a lot of what I call “fire hall democrats” supporting Ernie. I understand Bob Frederick even endorsed Ernie, for whatever that is worth.
“He (Lopez) appears to have more successfully solidified his base following the primary”
Staton solidified the base before the primary by trouncing his opponents.
I guess Lopez being a state college bureaucrat is ok versus a business owner as long as you are a republican’t.
The ads Staton is running on TV are positive and often. Haven’t seen a Lopez spot yet.
Good picks and analysis. Only critique I have is that I think Cloutier wins handily, and Lynne Newlin pulls it out in a close one.
I think Somnambulo forgot the being stopped in two states in succession for drunk driving on the same night thing regarding Atkins.
@jack: How does Cloutier win handily? She didn’t win handily last time out against the same challenger, and she lacks some of the advantages she had last time. Define “handily” and I might take the bet.
@dogbert: He’s won a couple of elections since then. Why would that suddenly cost him votes now?
I find it funny how you pick and choose who you write about. You dont write about any races with any Libertarian Candidates.
My opinion on Staton/Lopez (as an unaffialiated voter). Both seem fairly likeable and qualified. I ignore all political commercials and junk mail, except maybe as I’m paging through the Gazette, which is why I haven’t seen any negative advertisement. It’s sort of a toss up for me at this point.
I’d like to vote Lopez to demonstrate to the Republicans that if they would nominate responsible people instead of whack jobs, they might be more successful. On the other hand, I’m not sure the Sussex County Republicans would get the message even if it were delivered with a 2 x 4.
So, I’m sorta leaning towards Andy simply as part of my desire/strategy to marginalize the SC GOP into non-existence, with the hope that they would eventually arise as a new party that believed in responsible governance.
The longer I live here, the more convinced I am that the SC GOP only hears messages speaking in tongues in their own heads and can grasp any other message. Anyway, that’s my thought process as I decide to cast my vote for one or the other of the two. I guess I’m leaning Andy at this juncture.
No More Blevins, Who isn’t an embarrassed Republican these days?
SD40: I love that phrase “fire hall Democrats”. It really is quite apt, and serves as a good description of what passes for much of the Sussex County Democratic Party. I remember that Bullock guy who ran as the D when Atkins got tossed out of the General Assembly. His entire campaign was comprised of fire hall Democrats, and they lost.
And ‘No More Blevins’: You’re correct that I did not consider races with only third party challengers. If I considered any of them competitive, I would have. But I don’t. Which is why the only ‘third party’ candidate I mentioned is Alex Pires.
FWIW, I’ll be voting for Andrew Groff in the US Senate race. So I’m not entirely ignoring third party candidates.
So why dont you you think that any of them as competitive? I like many of readers and posters here have made negitive remarks about fellow Democrates. Most inportantly negitive remarks about the Blev, Patty Blevins. What percentage do you give her in her reelection?
Staton has the gay community and the blue-dyed progs behind him, but not much else. I’ve heard many people say he comes across as incredibly fake and superficial. Honestly, I’ve never met him, but his haircut and the plastered-on smile in his mailers make him look like the goofball kid in high school. Not exactly inspiring confidence. He’s vague on all the important issues – no details, but a lot of promises that a state senator can’t carry out. And the negative stuff is definitely backfiring. The first one I got, about women, had a very nasty tone. Lopez is going to pick this one up.
PS Forgot to add: Staton intentionally patterned his campaign signs after the script style logo of his real estate business. Very tacky.
To Dave, if Lopez loses that is just going to give more fodder to the tea nuts- they will say “See, if only Glen won, he would have shown Andy the door.” (Dream on 912 Patriots!)Nevertheless Lopez has run a very clean campaign, doesn’t have the $$$ that Staton does, but his ads have been on WBOC. Andy’s mailers are specifically targeted to certain demographics and paint Lopez as a stone-aged Rick Santorum (a redundancy, I know) type. Shame. I expected better from Andy should I say “Friends of Andy Staton” who produced them. I’ve never been a big lever puller and I had nothing against Andy, prior to seeing the mailers. Lopez is a genuinely nice guy. Making a stand for honesty and integrity is also a message worth sending.
The 5th Senate District will be close but a lot of people who think Cloutier is a lock aren’t paying attention to how much of the district is new and the really important fact that she hasn’t run in a presidential election year since 2000 (which wasn’t that long after her late husband’s passing). She’s been coasting for a while particularly with reduced D turnout in off-year elections, but she squeaked by last time and the new district is more favorable to Democrats now than it was then. She hasn’t exactly been campaigning hard either and doesn’t have a big legislative record to ride on. This is going to be a strong D turnout year in Delaware, even more so than 2010.
Couldn’t agree more, Bill. Just hope that people are finally paying attention to Cloutier’s, there’s no other word for it, lies.
She is as duplicitous as Mitt Romney, and the question is whether people who have supported her b/c she’s snowed them will finally recognize that she’s not who she’s pretended to be.
“To Dave, if Lopez loses that is just going to give more fodder to the tea nuts”
That’s what I’m afraid of. They remind me of the Jim Jones followers who drank the kool aid. They can’t be reached. They just sit there waiting for the apocalypse that they are sure is coming. Their only goal is to not be left behind during the rapture.
I think Glen Urquhart should run for Mayor of Rehoboth next round.
The Sussex GOP IS SO OUT THERE THAT if the Apocalyse does not come soon they are going to go out and make it happen.
Thay are that committed to showing the world that they are right- and the rest of us are going to hell
BODENWEISER CHRISTIANS
Staton may have given in to advice from “party leaders”. I remember them pushing a candidate to go negative because it works and they were relentless about it.
@ Geezer The point was about why he shouldn’t be on the Corrections Committee, not about things that will cost him votes. Try using your comprehension skills next time instead of just trying to find ways to be snarky.
Superficial is all you get from Wilmington politicians matlusky and bullock are the worst Btw what is an urban farm.
http://www.urbanfarm.org/
The biggest problem with Lopez is he is a Republican’t. He will caucus with the right wing whack jobs and support the stuff that all republican’ts are seemingly required to sign on to. Vote ID, tax cut/deregulation tourettes et al.
Lets not forget Lopez has been running a “family” campaign which is code for the other guy is…..ya know.
Much like Lynn Rogers was doing to Marie Mayor in the primary.
The problem with “fire hall democrats” El Som is that they don’t always vote Democrat, and I definitely don’t think they vote gay progressive, especially not when there is a seemingly normal Republican on the ballot who is married to a “local girl.”. I think, for better or worse, all of us D’s may have to face the fact that Andy might not have been the best general election candidate to run in that district. It gets pretty conservative pretty quick once you get out of Rehoboth and west of Route 1. Some of these EDs are ones Pete lost in 2010, which is why they are no longer a part of the 14th.
SD 40: While I agree with you in retrospect re Staton, keep in mind that I think Pete envisioned Staton going up against Urquhart. Lopez certainly upset that equation.
It’s neither Staton’s nor Schwartzkopf’s fault. Sometimes things just don’t turn out the way you expected. And sometimes you have to give props to your opponent.
Besides, it’s not Election Day yet. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that Staton could win.
BTW, I think the problem with ‘fire hall Democrats’ is not JUST that they don’t always vote D, but that they don’t want to let D’s who are NOT fire hall D’s into the, um, fire hall.
BTWBTW, you really bring some great stuff here. Excellent Sussex County analysis. If you ever want to consider a blogger gig, keep us in mind.
No doubt the race is far from over, and Andy certainly has enough money to do whatever he wants in the final week. It’s going to be close, and I think Andy benefits
from having both Marie Mayor and Joan Deaver on the ballot, both of whom appear to have excellent teams driving out their vote. Plus, as you pointed out, Lopez get nothing from the top of the ballot, and the kind of R’s likely to go out just so they could cast a vote against Obama are more likely Urquhart voters for whom Lopez is too liberal. I tell you what, if Andy does lose it’s not for a lack of effort, which would have been the case with Frederick. Also, if Lopez wins, it’s a district that the D’s should definitely target in the next election. I don’t see the registration getting any better for him.
What’s your take on Mayor/Smyk?
I think Mayor is going to win, primarily because I think Smyk’s campaign has been really disorganized and doesn’t appear to know what it’s doing. His campaign manager, Lewis Briggs (Ruth Briggs-King’s brother), I think has had to spend most of his free time helping her
fending off
No More Blevins–
No one mentions Libertarian candidates because they never win, and their party consists of a bunch of weirdos. Quite simply, the Libertarian party doesn’t matter. I know, firsthand. I was a member for a time in the early ’90s.
Ok, my fat fingers got in the way of finishing what I had hoped would be an intelligent comment. The bottom
line is that I think Mayor wins because Smyk’s campaign manager has had to spend all his time helping RBK hold onto her seat and has been too busy to help Smyk run an effective campaign, which if nothing else shows why it’s important to contest every seat in every election. BTW, I think the Hovington race will be closer than you think. There are still some Bodie-enamored people who question Pettyjohn’s motivation for running as a write-in and think the whole thing is a conspiracy.
Also, I was hoping you were going to predict
who would win the Speaker and Pro Tem elections.
Caution, Mark Doughty made a despicable move the other day to counter the DSEA mailer’s co-endorsement of Sokola and Baumbach and a Schooley endorsement mailer by the Baumbach camp.
Doughty’s mailer depicts Paul Baumbach wanting to take away your choice in public education
Education is under attack
Baumbach is launching as attack on our children’s public education
– wants to get rid of the local school referendum process and give the state more of your local control, taking away your choice in raising school tax dollars (source – Baumbach campaign)
– vocal opponent of our public charter school system and wants to take away your pubic school choice (source – Baumbach May letter)
– fought against the expansion of the high school at Newark Charter School (ditto)
etc.
Too bad the Governor’s Blue Ribbon Task Force on Charters is silent on these issues. The crowding out of traditional public schools by Charters which can pick and choose who they educate and follow rules of their own making is a real threat. Baumbach was correct in pointing that out.
Hurricane Sandy was God’s punishment for Bodenweiser.
@El Somnambulo How on earth does the DSEA keep endorsing Cloutier? Her endorsements seem to be primarily on the basis that she doesn’t get in the way. That is evident through her backing by Brian McGlinchey’s folks. Some of these unions and PAC’s need to start backing candidates that will not just stay out of their way, but actually fight for their interests. It truly amazes me that Cathy keeps getting this DSEA support, especially since Counihan is an educator.
For the same reason that Tony DeLuca did. As long as they vote on specific pieces of legislation the way DSEA wants, DSEA doesn’t delve any deeper than that.
DeLuca’s vanquisher, Bryan Townsend, whose mother has been a public school teacher for something like 40 years, and Counihan, who is an educator, will/would be infinitely superior on addressing education issues.
I think it’s funny how people on this post (SussexAnon) complain that Lopez will only vote with the R’s….
(The biggest problem with Lopez is he is a Republican’t. He will caucus with the right wing whack jobs and support the stuff that all republican’ts are seemingly required to sign on to.)
But then others will complain that “Fire Hall Dems” aren’t real Democrats because they will sometimes vote against the party.
Isn’t that what we want from our politicians? Those who don’t play partisan politics? Can’t have it both ways folks. You can’t yell at a democrat for not doing exactly what you detest from the Republican party.
When looking at a candidate, I always consider special interest group endorsements as insight into the candidate. It’s not the whole story but it’s certainly a piece of it.
DSEA serves their member’s interests. Their endorsement provides some measure of insight into how they think a candidate aligns with their interests. One can then determine how well that aligns with the community’s/state’s interests.
Traditional public schools do not seem to be meeting the need of the communities and the perception is that either there is no will to change on the part of any of the stakeholders. Those who can afford it find alternatives because ultimately, parents are concerned about the education of their own children. This is not news. It is just a continuation of the status quo, which is really long, slow death spiral.
The Onion had a story recently about a chapter on the failure of America’s public school system being added to school textbooks. So what was despicable about the Doughty piece? Baumbach did oppose Newark Charter’s expansion, which I imagine some in the district would be interested in. Was the piece inaccurate or misleading, I haven’t seen it. Unless it’s misleading, I think it’s fair game.
Slower Lower: I think you are missing the point. We want to advance the Democratic agenda, so we oppose Republicans, because they will vote Republican, and we oppose Democrats who don’t vote with the Democrats.
Didn’t miss the point. It’s called a double standard.
I should have directed you to my blog post where the points are, perhaps, developed more fully.
Baumbach’s positions are explicit on his website (links at DE Way). Doughty is distorting Baumbach’s positions. Paul has a statement up about this whole mess. But you GOPerheads don’t really give a crap about all that.
It is not a double standard. It’s about trying to advance a particular agenda. No one is saying the it’s right for Dems to support the Dem Party, but it’s wrong for Repubs to support the Republican Party. We are saying that we want to elect people who will support the Democratic Party.
“No one mentions Libertarian candidates because they never win, and their party consists of a bunch of weirdos.”
They may be weirdos but their arguments are gaining traction. Good thing some of the libertarian candidates in DE are unable to articulate their party’s basic principles.
Old libertarians may have been deemed weirdos…They sort of needed to be just to get camera time. But nothing in their past even comes close to being as weird as this campaign season’s Republican Party e…..
It is time to kill the Republican party. It is time for a new party to emerge, say call it the Business Party, take up the Republican’s pro-business baton, and the religious nuts will all silently fade back into the Sussex County soil.
HEY VALENTINE, thats exactly what people are saying…..
“The biggest problem with Lopez is he is a Republican’t. He will caucus with the right wing whack jobs and support the stuff that all republican’ts are seemingly required to sign on to.”
“The problem with “fire hall democrats” El Som is that they don’t always vote Democrat”
Re: Lopez. We don’t need another anti-choice incumbent who’ll attract Chamber of Commerce funding. He promises to be the Lavelle of the Cape.
lopez will win because he appeals to moderate (sane,reasonable) people. there is very little difference in voter registration numbers in this district. the dems did not do a very good job of drawing themselves a nice district here. i would have voted for staton had urqhart won and i think staton would have won under those circumstances.
Wait til after this weekend to see how moderate and reasonable Lopez seems. He and his backers are sending out some hit pieces on Andy. One of them is already out. You can tell alot about a person by the company he keeps.
Lopez has said publicly that he, if given the chance, would vote to defund Planned Parenthood. Still sound moderate?
“They (Libertarians) may be weirdos but their arguments are gaining traction” I have been hearing this same line since the early 90’s.
kavips-
Old libertarians may have been deemed weirdos…They sort of needed to be just to get camera time.
I call bullshit, at least in northern DE & the 5 county metro Philly area.
The late Irv Homer, host of a highly rated FM talk show on the now defunct WWDB, was a Libertarian & would gladly give airtime to any Libertarian candidate who could speak for 15 minutes or so. Homer also espoused Libertarian principles as a panelist on Inside Story, a Sunday morning talk show on WPVI channel 6 until his death in 2009.
“One of them is already out. ”
show me
“Lopez has said publicly that he, if given the chance, would vote to defund Planned Parenthood.”
show me
it’s not that i don’t believe you, but i would like to see it.
If you want evidence of Ernie Lopez’ ( and others’ ) position on issues, look at this link to the voter guide of the Delaware Family Policy Council. He supports requiring parental consent for abortions(#5), supports de-funding Planned Parenthood (#12), Opposes single-payer healthcare (#14), supports a constitutional amendment declaring marriage as one man and one woman (#15), and supports the prohibition of abortion coverage through state insurance exchanges required by the Affordable Care Act (#9).
http://www.delawarestrong.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/2012-C3-General-Election-Voter-Guide-v7-Corrected.pdf
All of his positions aren’t perfect, for me anyway, but I voted for Ernesto yesterday. I was on the fence until Staton went negative, and pulled the Planned Parenthood bullshit. Nevertheless, I even voted for three Democrats. Dept. of Elections in Georgetown was VERY busy yesterday. Leaving town for Kansas City tomorrow.
I don’t see how pointing out someone’s stated positions on issues can be considered bullshit.
I, for one, think that candidates’ positions on the issues are at the top of the list of information needed for voters to make intelligent decisions.
Or, in the case of Cathy Cloutier, the fact that she tells the Delaware Strong Families that she supports the elimination of funding for Planned Parenthood while telling Planned Parenthood something else, identifies her as a two-faced liar.
Pray tell, Miscreant, what exactly is wrong with Staton pointing out Lopez’ opposition to funding for Planned Parenthood? That IS, after all, his stated position, isn’t it?
Ernie’s pulling a Mitt:
http://www.thenation.com/article/170808/ladies-dont-fall-moderate-mitt
Saltyindependent asked for evidence Mr. Lopez “would vote to defund Planned Parenthood”. I posted the link to one group that says that is his position. If you agree with Mr. Lopez’ position on issues of importance to you and you think he is qualified for this office, then vote for him. If you believe Andy Staton is qualified and you agree with him on the issues important to you, then vote for him.
I know both candidates and they are both decent people. I identify with Andy Staton on the issues. I will be voting for Andy on Tuesday. I hope everyone in the 6th Senate District who identifies with his positions on issues will also vote for him. I have known Andy for quite a few years. Those who have posted negatives about him based on “what they have heard” obviously do not know him. Andy is a realtor who deals in residential, not commercial real estate. He hosts an annual charitable fundraiser at his home that, this year alone, raised $14,000 for programs that fight childhood obesity in Delaware. Andy, himself, was obese and through dedication and many setbacks, is now at his ideal weight and runs triathalons. Andy was president of his homeowners association and is involved in many civic associations and boards. He has not gone “negative” in his campaign. What Alex Pires says in his personal attacks on Tom Carper is negative campaigning. Comparing and contrasting your positions with your opponent’s positions is what campaigning should be about-that is not negative, if true.
I rarely ever make a decision based on social issues. However, Lopez’s marks are nearly identical (only one difference) from Evan Queitsch’s on the Family Policy Council. Since Queitsch is a loon and I believe you are the company you keep, I have to assume that Lopez is infected. This was the only race where I was actually undecided, so that’s that. I may not like all of someone’s views on things, but I do not vote for loons or loon associates.
“Pray tell, Miscreant, what exactly is wrong with Staton pointing out Lopez’ opposition to funding for Planned Parenthood? That IS, after all, his stated position, isn’t it?”
Nothing wrong with that at all, his position on Planned Parenthood was one of the reasons I voted for him. It was in his disingenuous “Lopez is against women” delivery. If you don’t know what I’m talking about (or pretend you don’t), get your head out of your ass. Both candidates touted a positive campaign, and Staton’s move was merely representative of how most liberals run theirs.
The only position listed below in Mitch crane’s assessment (or “evidence”) that I don’t agree with is “… supports a constitutional amendment declaring marriage as one man and one woman”.
“He supports requiring parental consent for abortions(#5), supports de-funding Planned Parenthood (#12), Opposes single-payer healthcare (#14), supports a constitutional amendment declaring marriage as one man and one woman (#15), and supports the prohibition of abortion coverage through state insurance exchanges required by the Affordable Care Act (#9).”
“Or, in the case of Cathy Cloutier, …”
I don’t give a flying fuck about Cloutier.
Ernie did answer #12 on the DE Family Policy Council’s voter guide that he would defund abortion provider Planned Parenthood. But he also has made a declarative statement, when asked about the Staton mailer, that while he is against abortion, he would not defund Planned Parenthood or any other provider of preventative services (contraception? cancer?) or general medical services for women.
It is to be expected that moderate GOP are trapped in this social conservative meme. Ernie should have been provided with more than a yes/no response to a question that, for him and other not-so-conservative GOPers – presumably Cathy Cloutier, have a more nuanced answer.
Remember, Carper and KAUFFMAN both voted to defund ACORN.
By the way, I don’t consider filling in an oval in pencil to equate to “stating publicly” one’s position. Ernie has never stated publicly that he would defund PP. That is not accurate if by STATING one reads speaking or saying in a public forum etc.
Lopez publicly stated that he would not defund Planned Parenthood at the League of Women Voter’s candidate forum. It concerns me that Staton would continue to try to drive this message home when he was sitting right next to Lopez at the LWV forum and clearly heard Lopez’s response to the question.
The problem is that the average citizen in Delaware has no idea what happens in these forums since the news coverage of candidate forums in Delaware is dismal, and we’re pretty much down to 3 blogs in the state (DL, DP & DW).
And Lopez stated in an interview with NPR station WDDE- 911FM that he did respond to the Family Council questionnaire stating that he supported de-funding. http://www.wdde.org/33207-sixth-senate-race. You can listen live. So, it seems that Mr. Lopez has taken both sides of this issue. I guess that is what “moderate Republican” means.
As to what “stated publically” means, from a legal sense it is stating orally or in writing to more than one person, or knowing the statement will be disseminated. Answering a questionnaire from an advocacy group is “public”, as is responding to questions from a reporter for a radio stating.
You demtards crack me up and as far as Mitch Cranes assessment, I call bullshit.
You all portray this as the end of Planned Parenthood if Ernie Lopez wins. Read closer, say the end the use of tax payer money to fund these organizations. Doesnt say the sky falls and the world ends. If you want to contribute, contribute, my wife does.
2. As a father of 2 young girls do you really think any sane man is NOT going to want to be informed if the minor child he loves and raised is having an abortion?
3. Mitch, get your glasses out. The guide clearly states, #15, Lopez OPPOSES the marriage amendment. But I guess it more convenient to bullshit everyone on this.
To me, this guy is pretty independently minded and is going to receive a lot of support because voters recognize that. So all of you clowns blindly looking at him as the evil doer of doom, remember, Ernie and Andy were both the subject of a smear campaign by a far right bunch of clowns in the 35th district prior to the primary.
Are either one of these guys my ideal candidate, no. But as a democrat who is married with two kids, I agree a whole lot more with Lopez than Andy.
I got my glasses out. I stand corrected on #15. Thank you. However, I note ( with glasses on ) that Mr. Lopez does support “…maintaining marriage as the union of one man and one woman” ( #6). Glad to know he doesn’t want to ban “gay marriage” by a constitutional amendment, just by statute. I feel much better now.
Didnt say i agree with his stance, just pointing out that it is no better if we as dems lies about our opponents stances. It is shameful and indicates weakness.
Furthermore, as far as the marriage issue is concerned, that should be up to the church, not the government. If you or I want to marry a man, woman, camel or dog, I am sure their is a church out there that will sanctify it.
Ernie should have been provided with more than a yes/no response to a question that, for him and other not-so-conservative GOPers – presumably Cathy Cloutier, have a more nuanced answer.
Am I the only one amused by people rationalizing their way into the answer they want on this Planned Parenthood thing?
Pay no attention to the questionnaires Lopez may have answered! He was just pandering to that audience, but the answer *I* have is clearly not pandering to me!
This guy is talking out of both sides of his mouth and apparently getting a pass for it. Some moron here is actually labeling that *independently minded*.
🙄
Yep, I am that moron cassandra. Thanks for the big welcome. Sorry, but as a D I actually care about where my tax dollars end up. Coming from a farm family who has a payroll to meet you dont and cant continually piss money away. Maybe you will learn that when you emerge from your parents basement.
“Furthermore, as far as the marriage issue is concerned, that should be up to the church, not the government.”
Right. And virtue should be rewarded while wrongdoing is punished. But that’s not the world we live in. In this world, the government issues marriage licenses.
Do you run your farm based on the price you think your crops should fetch, or do you run it based on what they actually sell for? So don’t tell me how you think a perfect world should work. Tell me what you think we should do with the choices immediately before us.
“As a father of 2 young girls do you really think any sane man is NOT going to want to be informed if the minor child he loves and raised is having an abortion?”
Sorry, but what your daughter does when she is 17 is pretty much none of your business. And I say that as the father of a 30-year-old woman, which makes no more difference than you trotting out your children as your crutch.
By the way, you are a Democrat only in name. You don’t share a single value with the people here as best I can tell, and I’d rather the party carry on without you and the peckerwood set.
The WDDE article you link to has a video that does not contain Lopez’s answer to the Planned Parenthood question. The article also does not contain a quote from Lopez on the issue.
However, on WGMD, there is audio of Lopez saying that he “never” publicly stated that he would defund Planned Parenthood:
http://wp.wgmd.com/?p=71778
Lopez: “The piece that was sent was disappointing to read because I have never stated that I would try to end funding for Planned Parenthood or any other organization that provides the critical prevention and medical services to women in our community.”
Every public statement there is directly from Lopez’s mouth on the funding of Planned Parenthood mirrors what is on the WGMD website, that includes his statement at the League of Women Voter’s forum. What he has said publicly also mirrors what he told me privately when I questioned him on this issue.
The fact that he denies wanting to defund PP to WGMD says it all. If there was a place for Lopez to show his anti PP cred, WGMD would have been it.
why don’t people who make the “i cant run my company or family the way the gumment runs…….” argument just come out in favor of mass executions for poor and sick people? why would I ask this? well, in a company, if someone underperforms, you fire them. Why not “do away” with un productive members of society?
you think a nation should be run according to a bottom line? If you also aren’t if favor of genocide, then you are a coward and a hypocrite.
@ John Jakes: If your first post here is calling names, you shouldn’t be surprised to get that right back at you.
And it would be hard to approve the payrolls I need to from my parents basement. But I accept that someone who is part of the scrapple manufacturing chain might not be able to grasp that.
I doubt he’s a Dem. Perhaps because of his use of the word Demtard. Just sayin’
“As a father of 2 young girls do you really think any sane man is NOT going to want to be informed if the minor child he loves and raised is having an abortion?”
If you have to be “informed” by someone other than the daughter you loved and raised then there’s a problem with your relationship that started long before your daughter got pregnant.
Geezer, this business is a lot more complicated that what you as a pointy hat, may realize. I am more concerned about getting our fiscal house in order than I am about most social issues. Again, when you have a payroll to meet, you get it.
So what choices would you like me to speak about?
And it looks like he’s been here under multiple names. How about that!
Banning material!
Actually, social issues don’t matter to you because you’re a white, straight male. Abortion and gay rights don’t affect you – and given what you’ve written it’s obvious that it’s all about you.
“as far as the marriage issue is concerned, that should be up to the church, not the government”
It already is. Churches don’t have to marry anybody they don’t want to.
Pandora, in our party we have demtards and the R’s have their tea baggers. Sorry, it is my term or affection for the far left and far right.
“If you have to be “informed” by someone other than the daughter you loved and raised then there’s a problem with your relationship that started long before your daughter got pregnant.”
Really, you dont have children apparently. I dont let my kids drink, have sex, smoke, etc in my home and I can only prepare them for what this world has to offer outside of my front door. If they make bad decisions, as we all have, I will support and love them and they know that. But I was once a kid too and there were certain thinks I kept from my parents b/c I may have been embarrassed or gotten in trouble. That is a kid being a kid. But thanks for your parenting advice. When you actually are a parent, get back to me.
JJ, there is no more far left, at least not in elected office. The far left doesn’t even consider themselves Dems anymore. The far right, on the other hand, is the controlling caucus in Congress.
Puck, then why do you care about gay marriage?
Puck, thanks for the update. I didnt get the memo.
A long time ago in a place, I guess, called oz, there was a president named Kennedy who was a whole lot different than a great deal of folks in our party today. So sorry if I am old fashioned here. I didnt leave the party but I guess the party left me.
Hey, just realized this is El Som’s DE election post. Somebody smoke this troll.
Heat too hot? Truth hurts, I know.
JJ – the point is that you have made incorrect assumptions about EVERY person that you have interacted with on this thread. Based on that incredible accomplishment alone, excuse us if we assume that you don’t have a clue about how the world works outside of your tight orbit.
but..but….. JFK!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As the mother of a son in college and a daughter in high school let me offer you, the father of two young girls, some advice… buckle up. Good luck with your “not my kids/not in my house/I don’t allow” attitude.
@John Jakes: So you are saying that Mr. Lopez is socially liberal enough for you as a Republican to garner your vote as a Demtard because his fiscal stance aligns more with your wallet and all this bullshit about women’s rights and gay people is just so stupid and useless. Correct?
Sidenote: The only upside to your viewpoint (which I respect) but I do not agree with (and I do have children) . . . is that it may very well get a Mexican elected . . . oh well . . . too bad he is a Republican . . . Dios mío!!
@Linda, Ernie was born in Puerto Rico, not Mexico. That makes him a U.S. citizen, last time I checked. I’ve been both a D and an R, follow the person, not the party, as many claim to do. The far wings of both parties concern me. I do know Ernie, I do know Marie Mayor and I find them both highly reasonable, dedicated people without social agendas. I will vote for both of them, and while that might have some spinning, I can reconcile my decision easily and with complete peace of mind. It doesn’t mean that one or the other is more left or right (gosh I hate labels) nor have I found they are defined by social issues. People push candidates to answer yes or no to stupid surveys without the benefit of context or nuance. Both matter. Neither candidate is perfect, but for me these choices are. It doesn’t mean their opponents are evil,or wrong, but in getting the opportunity to know these particular two individual, I was impressed with who I met and their personal integrity and will happily vote for them.
@pandora
You really need some kids in your life, huh?
I know, Steve. It’s okay, John “father of two young girls” Jakes is in for several big life lessons.
i have daughters myself and yes i support having to be informed of an abortion prior to them becoming adults. i hate the family policy council or whatever delaware’s version of it is and i certainly don’t look to them to be credible for any candidates positions.
You miss the point. Candidates who take the time to fill out the questionnaire of this, or any other group, do so b/c they want the endorsement of that group.
Most candidates did not bother to answer the survey. Those who did sought their endorsement, or, if you prefer, ‘ranking’.
They can try to ‘nuance’ it all they want (although, trust me, some of them don’t/can’t do ‘nuance’), but, by filling out the survey and, for the most part, providing the answers they knew the organization wanted, they knew what they were doing. Trying to gain political advantage from it.
Which is why I can’t buy someone running from their own answers now, and lamenting the lack of opportunity for nuance.
“i have daughters myself and yes i support having to be informed of an abortion prior to them becoming adults. ”
I also have daughters. One is an adult now, one is not. What you miss here is twofold:
1. If you have a relationship with your daughter in which she wouldn’t feel like she could tell you about that kind of trouble, then having the government do it for you is not likely to improve things. I do recognize that there are situations where this is not always possible despite the parent’s best efforts, but those exceptions are a very small percent.
2. If you create an atmosphere in which teenage girls believe they are cut off from reaching legitimate medical assistance because of some “informed parent” law, then you open up the door for them to make even stupider, more dangerous choices. If my daughter were in that position and did not feel like she could talk to me, I would far prefer her to be seeing a qualified medical professional than wandering around looking for a quack with a coat hanger.
And, yes, I know whereof I speak by personal experience; you can ask my nine-year-old grandson, who is here because my daughter was still willing to talk to her parents in the “worst-case” scenario.
i can buy it as there is no room for nuance on either side (slightly more so on the right). i have met the guy and get a good feeling from him. i am happy to have the opportunity to vote for someone from the center. you can’t convince me the guy has any extreme positions.
i have a good relationship with all my daughters one of whom is just short of being an adult. my wife does as well. i understand your argument, but i do not agree with it. i’m not sure how it cuts people off from legitimate medical assistance. she can’t go get a prescription for strep throat without an adult. i am glad that your “worst case scenario ” worked out. my oldest is the result of one of those as well.
“i’m not sure how it cuts people off from legitimate medical assistance. she can’t go get a prescription for strep throat without an adult.”
I will try to explain this to you. As the parent I have a responsibility to insure that she gets treatment for illness. If I neglect to get proper medical care for a sick child (and the courts have ruled that this extends to Christian Scientists) then you create legal venues for the State to step in. Beyond a certain point you do not legally have the option NOT to seek medical assistance for a sick or injured child.
However, pregnancy (and by extension pre-natal care) are NOT illnesses. Choosing to continue a pregnancy or to abort it is (in a physically healthy female) is an elective procedure. In valuing the young woman’s right to choose what happens to her own body over society’s one-size-fits-all decisions about age of consent or age of competence, the government has ironically made on of the most correct civil liberties decisions in American history.
I would PREFER that all young women felt safe enough and comfortable enough to share these decisions with their parents. The realist in me knows better, and know how many young women are subjected to abuse (both physical and mental) in these situations.
Would the parent who was informed that their daughter was scheduling an abortion accept that the daughter HAD made her choice? Or is this just a parent vetoing their daughter’s decision – which might be why she didn’t tell you in the first place.
And Steve is correct. Go ahead and put in these parental notifications and drive these girls to dangerous methods – and, don’t kid yourself, that’s where they’ll head.
I’ve just seen a recent mailer calling Lopez an EXTREMIST, replete with dark scary pictures of the gloom and doom that will descend upon Delaware women for voting for Lopez. The mailer does not disclose its source. Any one who knows Ernie know this is just plain wrong. Now,according to the mailer, those who are unfortunate enough to be victims of sexual abuse will be left out in the cold by the evil doings of Ernie Lopez. Beware Delaware women. Ridiculous!
And on that DFC survey, Andy conveniently left the same question blank. No courage of conviction.
I don’t disagree with some of Lopez’s positions in the FPC survey/whatever it was. For instance, I have difficulty with minor child receiving medical care, except in exigent circumstances with parental authorization. Either the parents are responsible for the minor child or they are not. I recognize the dilemma for the minor child but as a society, we can just abrogate parental authority. Authority must be comensurate with the responsibility. If the parent is legally (not to mention morally) responsible then they must have the authority comensurate with that responsibility.
Regardless, my point about Lopez is that his answers match Queitsch’s. I suppose it’s possible for a loon and not-a-loon to answer some questions the same way, but all of them? Next thing you know someone will be telling me that Lopez is a 9-12 er and intends to stand his ground against Agenda 21.
@Dave, I have gotten to know him and there is no way he fits in to the looney tune category! I’ve run into those 912’ers and they are so disturbing. I’ve seen Q= man on video – gawd! Ernie is a class act and a normal human being. Really!
“I’ve just seen a recent mailer calling Lopez an EXTREMIST, replete with dark scary pictures of the gloom and doom that will descend upon Delaware women for voting for Lopez..”
I’m looking at the same mailer, the one that says:
________________________________________________________
“EXTREMIST ERNIE LOPEZ has said he would defund Planned Parenthood -end cancer screenings and critical healthcare for thousands of Delaware women.
– THAT’S JUST PART OF LOPEZ’S EXTREMIST AGENDA AGAINST WOMEN’S HEALTHCARE:
X -Increase restrictions on women’s healthcare decisions.
X -Slash access to cancer screenings.
X -Reduce availability of birth control.
_______________________________________________________
This is the “BULLSHIT” that El Somnambulo either pretends he doesn’t see, or embraces Staton’s disingenuous hyperbole. Those who don’t buy into the progressive agenda, hook, line and sinker, and have any objectivity whatsoever, can see this goes well beyond “pointing out someone’s stated positions on issues”.
That being said, judging by the number of letters to the editor in favor of Staton (about 8 to 1) that our local rag cares to print, I think he should do pretty well in eastern Sussex.
Here is the Lopez quote on PP (below). I think a person can not want tax dollars to go to fund abortions by PP but still not want to defund PP for other services they provide. Is this not exactly what federal law proscribes? – no federal dollars may go to fund abortion services. I believe Lopez answered the DFPC question as stated – no funding for abortion services. Pandering? Sure. OK. But I wanted his position clear and in writing and I believe what he’s stating is his position and is how he will govern if elected – as a moderate we can trust.
“I value and support the important work and mission of women’s clinics, hospitals and health providers and will make it a point to champion their efforts to promote prevention and lifesaving care for everyone who seeks their help and counsel. Unlike my opponent, I have held my wife’s hand as she has given birth and have comforted my young girls through countless medical procedures and appointments. Let me be clear, I have never stated that I would try to “end funding for Planned Parenthood or any other organizations that provide critical prevention and medical services to women in our community” as quoted in multiple negative attack piece mailed to thousands of district residents by my opponent. While I, like many, oppose tax payer money used for abortions, I would not seek to “defund” any health care group such as Planned Parenthood from the critical research and prevention work they do in the important field of women’s health.”
Just saw the post above and I certainly hope Staton gets kicked in the ass on Tuesday for that shit.
I think the repeated negative attacks on Ernie seem like over-kill and are starting to de-sensitize people. Nobody is scared by Ernie Lopez, they know he is a nice and decent person. I think if elected he would be a lot like Liane Sorenson, a pretty good act to follow. I thought the first negative piece – “if Lopez wins, women lose” – was effective. It was provocative, and I think it caused people to look, perhaps for the first time , at the candidates’ positions on the issues. I think a lot of people were very enameled by Ernie, or at least the thought that there was possibly a centrist Republican left in Sussex. The first piece countered that, and I think it caused some middle of the road D’s to come back home. The repeated mailings on the same issue have taken away from that, however. The most recent piece, portraying a rape victim is really deceitful. It’ definitely going to hurt Andy with Independents and those who have met Ernie personally. If you accept whole cloth that Ernie would vote to defund Planned Parenthood – something no state senator could do – that is nowhere near the same as saying he would tell a rape victim what to do with their own body. The logic just doesn’t follow. I think in the end it’s a catastrophic piece for Staton. The fact that there is no identified sender on the piece makes it look even worse. Even if Andy didn’t send it, it’s close enough to his other pieces that people presume it’s from him.
Staton’s gutter third party politics don’t go over well in our state.
Look at the Chip Flowers’ win over Velda Potter and her over the top fearmongering mailers – or Tony DeLuca’s last minute Townsend scary man bullshit – or any number of the Clark /PAC mailers on Gordon – none of them worked.
The third party money deriding union-supported school board candidates up and down the state met the same fate – no deal, no dice.
Staton must be trailing in the polls to go to these lengths.
As I recall, more than a few of the non-union school board candidates share one thing with Staton – Terry
Strine’s Delaware Leadership ‘school’.
Strine tried to give Staton a fundraiser through the Delaware Leadership organization and it was ‘aborted’ at the last minute because of tax-nonprofit problems – (See: DE Grapevine for the story). Maybe he and pals have found a new way of funding Staton. Dirty tricks.
Sorry meant to say enamored by Ernie. Damn you autocorrect.
Had it backwards – Leadership DE rather.
http://leadershipdelaware.org/index.cfm?ref=30200&ref3=49
The thing Andy has in common with all of the failed DEMs is endorsement by the DEM party……
Mitch dear, you lost quite a bit of credibility when you committed photo-fraud and sent a 30 year old picture of yourself to the DC Blade for use in their coverage of your attempt to take the 2012 DEM IC primary.
“As to what “stated publically” means”….did you mean to write “publicly”?
http://www.washingtonblade.com/2012/09/05/gay-man-seeks-to-become-delawares-next-insurance-commissioner/
Somnabulo
I disagree with you on the Ayotte vs. Deaver pick. While listening to Dan Gafney’s one hour interview with Ayotte, the Chair of the Independent Party called in and heavily endorsed Ayotte. This will easily tip the scales in Ayotte’s favor.
Ayotte sounds good on radio and Deaver refused to debate him after he creamed her at the American Legion forum.
I honestly think Ayotte will take this one by a comfortable margin.
I’m not endorsing anyone in the Staton-Lopez race, nor would I be presumptuous enough to do so.
I don’t get mailers on that race.
I’m simply pointing out that people who fill out questionnaires from groups like the Delaware Strong Families group do so b/c they want their endorsement. Same holds true for labor, education, or the NRA, for that matter. So, it’s not cowardice for Staton to not fill out the survey b/c he’s not seeking their endorsement. Now, if it’s a LWV survey, or something equally non-partisan, I would look askance at that.
I’ve never called Lopez an extremist (in fact, I voted for him when he ran against Paul Clark), and if Staton has, he’ll have to live with the electoral consequences, bad or good.
But some of the answers that Lopez provided raise questions that, IMHO, can and should be discussed during a campaign. Unless public policy stances have no place in electing people who will legislate public policy.
Who the heck is the “Chair of the Independent Party”? And why would their endorsement matter to anyone who have never heard of him/her?
What people know about Ayotte is that he part of the Bodenweiser group pushing for a sovereign sheriff to protect us from federal tryanny; an advocate for theocracy in government; and an intimate of the 9-12ers who spend their time railing against Agenda 21. I doubt that Ayotte will win, much less by a “comfortable margin” Most of the people in that district sensible people. Ayotte, is just too far out there for them.
Hey Nancy, did you ever hear that rudeness is the weak person’s imitation of strength? What do you see when you look in the mirror?
Andy Staton did not “choose” which questions he wanted to respond to in answering the Delaware Family Policy Council questionnaire. If one puts on his/her glasses, as I was properly advised to do, it would be clear that candidates with an “x” after their names did not respond. Answers were “compiled from other sources”. Most Democrats and truly moderate Republicans ( Tom Kovach, Ben Mobley ) did not respond.
As to Nancy Willing’s typical personal attacks,I find it almost amusing that she is upset at personal attacks when she hardly ever writes without personally attacking people she opposes. I invite the reader to recall some of the personal attacks she and her ally Joe Connor, Jr. leveled at me during my ill-fated Primary against her friend Commissioner Stewart. She is correct that my picture that appeared in the “Washington Blade” is not current. It is not, however, “30 years old”. The picture is a professional shot taken 5 years ago as a promotion for my nationwide lectures on hazing-before my eyes first gazed upon Ms. Willing. I aged quickly after that.
Dave
I just visited Ayotte’s website and he is running a clean race on the issues. I’m an Independent and I’m voting for him. I’m just plain tired of Deaver’s inaction on almost everything.
She stated that the two reasons to vote for her were: She’s a democrat and She’s the only woman on the council.
I’m sorry guys but that just doesn’t cut it for me. Ayotte speaks about the issues. I’ve never heard him say: Vote for me because I’m a man and I’m a Republican. I’m going to give him a shot.
http://www.ayotteforcouncil.com
@Dave: The chair of the independent party is Wolfgang von Baumgart. His Independent Party never had much influence, and lost what little it had left when it put Mike Protack on its ticket some years back only to have the never-trustworthy Protack withdraw from the race.
Traveler is delusional indeed if he thinks that will help Ayotte in any way. Wolfgang is almost as crazy as Ayotte and everyone down there knows it, though he is a good bit brighter, because hey, who isn’t?
Traveler, if you’re sincere then you should go read Ayotte’s past posts over at Delaware Politics (If they haven’t been scrubbed). Ayotte is as extreme as they come. No doubt about it.
I’m cautiously optimistic about the Mayor/Smyk race. My brother in law claims that a lot of people supported Mayor in the primary because they wanted to defeat Rogers, and have since switched their allegiance to Smyk. The bro-in-law is a Milton official, and has his ear tuned in to that community more than I do, but I’m not 100% sold on his logic. I did offer him a spare Bodenweiser sign I picked up on the back road to Millsboro to go along with his Smyk sign, but he wasn’t interested. 🙂
I talked to a friend yesterday who thinks Lopez is going to win, and I tend to agree. From what I have heard I think that Lopez could be ok. As one who always voted for Gary Simpson due to his stand on the death penalty Lopez could possibly get my vote in the future should he win and show himself as one willing to work with the opposition, but I have to take Staton on this go around. He does look like that goofy high school kid in his ads, though.
And Joan Deaver…you have to vote for her if you live here. With George Cole leaving she’s the only sane member of county council left.
pandora
I know that I don’t want another four years of Deaver and I live in her district.
I’ve met Don when he came to my door campaigning and even though he was on a schedule, he came in a talked to me about 20 minutes and never said anything bad about Deaver, even when I asked.
He stuck to the issues and I rarely vote republican but he made a lot of sense to me. He is aggressive and will work to bring jobs to our county. I voted early for him.
“I rarely vote republican”
I call BS. If you’re the same traveler who started posting here a few months ago, you’re obviously a conservative.
Fine, Traveler, but don’t blame people for thinking you voted without all the info.
Geezer
I vote on individual issues. I am moderate to liberal on some issues and conservative on constitutional issues. Most of all, I believe in the ultimate goodness of people.
I’ve heard you Geezer and you take pride in eviscerating people for ratings alone. I have no respect for you Sir.
This is the same traveler who thinks that Ayotte will put a stop to Agenda 21 in Sussex.
BS indeed.
traveler–
I think you’ve got your overweight radio hosts confused. Geezer eviscerates public figures who have earned it. Tom Gordon and KWS are two examples that come to mind. The downstate guy on WGMD eviscerates relative innocents for ratings, just like his hero Limbaugh.
geezer is a lot of things, but “ratings whore” isn’t one of them.
Cass
Never heard him mention Agenda 21 while he was in my house, I call a Ginourmas BS on all of you for disliking me for voting my mind and on the issues. I’ll vote what I think is right.
You can’t call BS for “all of you disliking me for voting my mind and on the issues.” That’s not BS. It’s the truth.
You’ve got one thing in common with Don Ayotte: You’re dumb as dirt and proud of it.
“But some of the answers that Lopez provided raise questions that, IMHO, can and should be discussed during a campaign. Unless public policy stances have no place in electing people who will legislate public policy.”
AGREED and it appears from an anony comment above that Ernie Lopez was drawn out on his answers on the DFPC questionaire at the LWV forum and there publicly stated that he would not defund PP for preventative and other women’s health services. That the Staton mailers ignored that position following the forum and went severely negative will probably hurt not help his chances.
Geezer
I stand on my statement and do believe you are a “ratings whore” with low self-esteem and a Napoleon complex. You comment only to deride people if they don’t share your opinions to the letter.
It must be lonely up there.
I don’t believe you are as dumb as dirt but you’re not the type of person I would associate with. I could learn to love yanking your chain. Yank Yank Yank. You’re soooooo easy.
@traveler,
“I just visited Ayotte’s website and he is running a clean race on the issues. I’m an Independent and I’m voting for him. I’m just plain tired of Deaver’s inaction on almost everything.”
“I voted early for him.”
Shouldn’t you have visited his website before voting? Might have been a good idea. Speaking of ideas, did you find any on his website? I did not. Additionally, Ayotte and Bodenweiser were as thick as thieves on the sheriff debacle. Now Ayotte, won’t even give his opinion, opting instead to say “it doesn’t come into play” Ayotte is an extremist, and Truth Be Told this county does not need someone like that in office.
Deaver (along with the rest of the council was on the right side of the sheriff issue). Deaver also meets with her constitutents by scheduling open meeting sessions at various cafes and I might add, that Deaver came by my house. Haven’t seen hide nor hair of Ayotte and I work at home, so I’m always around.
We have more than our fair share of loons. In fact I would like to proprose a loon redistribution program to ensure that the loons are proportionally represented in each district. It is unfair for Sussex County to be saddled with most of them.
Mitch, you ran a dirty campaign. You got dumped. Live and learn.
There is a lot going on with Andy Staton relative to high level politics here in DE. I am not at all sure that the General Assembly is the best place for him to settle. Let him continue with DEFAC and with the Delaware Real Estate Commission – a position he unfathomably shares with his business partner, Rick Allamong.
No one has yet to explain to me how, from our entire State of Delaware, Jack Markell found it appropriate to appoint two men who are long-time business partners to this regulations-making, nine member board.
http://dpr.delaware.gov/boards/realestate/members.shtml
Plus, here on DL there was a thread discussing Staton’s announcement for the new district before it was even released and El Som suspected a deal for Pete S. etc. as I recall.
Dave
We are saddled with you and you are a loon. We’ve got more than our share.
It wasn’t Mitch who ran the dirty campaign and I have some of the last minute emails from KWS supporters to prove it.
And of course Nancy is here with more of her tin foil hat BS. Because where the truth won’t satisfy, she’s perfectly willing to spin up her own usually silly conspiracy theories. I don’t have a dog in that Senate race, but if I were not sure of who I was voting for, I’d pick Stanton now. Why? Because if Nancy Willing is spinning up shit about you all over the web, you are probably on the right side of it.
Take your tin foil hat and go back to your own blog where no one cares about the conspiracy of the day.
@traveler — more BS from you too as you can tell by the link I provided.
I’m hoping that you and Nancy Willing find a way to join forces one day. We need some new entertainment around here.
Uhm, nice try Cassandra but no dice. This isn’t just your blog but no matter, you can’t resist trying to intimidate and censure voices and chase away those whose stories you don’t like. You can start your own blog and then make all the naysayers disappear.
People who know how Mitch behaved himself while at the IC Dept. etc. have plenty to say and I am not talking about KWS. Mitch demonized the entire staff to try to build himself up.
Here’s Traveler’s comment Cassandra linked to above:
Traveler, please drop the “I’m a reasonable voter who was swayed to vote for Ayotte after he stopped by my house.”
Agenda 21? Ain’t enough tinfoil in the world.
Nancy: Give it up. Everyone realizes she’s incompetent except you. It’s no longer about Mitch.
@traveler: I think you have it backwards. Yours is the chain that it’s absurdly easy to yank. And like your idol Don Ayotte, you have so little imagination that you can’t even think up your own insults — you have to mimic what people say about you instead.
Next time you talk to Mr. Ayotte, be sure to ask him how much government help he received in raising his son. Then duck.
“This isn’t just your blog but no matter, you can’t resist trying to intimidate and censure voices and chase away those whose stories you don’t like.”
What you call intimidation and censure are what the rest of us call disagreement.
Mitch is on here pulling for Staton and addressed my commentary. I shared the thirty year old photo just for fun. And no, continuing to tell people to take their comments elsewhere is not disagreement. It is lazy and it is a form of intimidation.
Cassandra – here’s a conspiracy for ya:
Dear Friends,
Folks, before you read this dissertation, I want to make myself perfectly clear. As a Republican who embraces capitilism and free enterprise, I am by no means a social conservative, a member of the tea party, or intollerant of different life-styles. What I do find disconcerting are hidden agendas involved in the political process. I am also a political pundit who periodically shares my opinions which is my 1st amendment right, so brace yourselves :).
The “Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender organization” (LGBT) is what I believe, the Democrat Candidate for the 20th District Representative seat- Marie Mayor, is involved in. She appears to be connected in many ways-it’s all around her. This organization has endorsed her and has apparently given her money either indirectly or directly. Everything points towards this agenda from the research information I have received about her. One part of the agenda of LGBT, among others, appears to be the infiltratration of all levels of government by training and helping gay candidates get elected. It is my understanding that this outfit also advocates gender and cross gender equality as an educational process in elementary schools. I believe from everything I have learned that Marie Mayor’s present candidacy is geared troward that goal. She will deny it and her supporters will deny it, however I believe the contrary. That is a decision you voters will have to make on election day.
Folks, It’s one thing to be gay which is certainly someone’s right if that is the life style they choose to embrace. I have many gay friends. I also believe that all people should have equel rights without fear of discrimination which I have firmly supported time and time again. However, when it comes to class room indoctrination in elementry schools–there is reason for concern–don’t you think?????.
The only significant inacuracy that I can discern from my original e-mail after some criticism is that Marie Mayor operated in Prince Georges County, MD (College Park) instead of Montgomery County, MD. After even more research and receiving much more information, I believe Marie Mayor has a hidden agenda and should not be in office regardless of political party. That is my opinion based on the concern I have about the method of operation of the LGBT.The agenda of this organization after examining it closely (in plain words) appears to be the infiltratration of all levels of government–its very clever, but also insidious from certain perspectives. Check it out in the links below. Frankly, I find the LGBT to be rather scary, much more than the social conservatives they enjoy attacking.
All this being said, I support Republican Steve Smyk who is a former Delaware State Trooper, A Veteran, a leader of the DSTA, and a fine family man with strong family values. Steve Smyk has true leadership qualities, understands Delaware’s economic problems and has inumerable ideas on how to create jobs. He has no hidden agenda and only wants to serve the people of Sussex County and the people of the great State of Delaware. Folks, if you live in the new 20th Representative District, I urge you to pull the lever for STEVE SMYK on Tuesday, November 6th.
Respectfully Submitted,
JUDSON Bennett-Coastal Network
Geezer
Your chain is so easy to yank. I drew you into a useless exchange of absurdities, like you were a child holding your hand out for candy on trick or treat night. Yank Yank Yank You’re soooooo easy.
Ernie and Cathie give us “the smooth evasion”:
From the master:
“Let me warn you and let me warn the Nation against the smooth evasion which says, ‘Of course we believe all these things; we believe in social security; we believe in work for the unemployed; we believe in saving homes. Cross our hearts and hope to die, we believe in all these things; but we do not like the way the present Administration is doing them. Just turn them over to us. We will do all of them- we will do more of them we will do them better; and, most important of all, the doing of them will not cost anybody anything.’
“But, my friends, these evaders are banking too heavily on the shortness of our memories.”
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=15142
Actually, Traveler, the only thing exposed (quite easily – like taking candy from a baby) is that you’re a troll and a rabid Ayotte supporter. Probably Ayotte, himself – given the lack of subtly (Hello, did you think your past comments here simply vanished?) and predictable shift from “I’m an Independent who suddenly, and thoughtfully, decided to vote for Ayotte” into Tea Party idiocy.
And adding an extra layer of tin foil to her hat, Nancy Willing posts up an email from someone who accuses Marie Mayor of being part of some gay conspiracy. I imagine she endorses Bennett’s stupidity here, which I would point out our readers is the kind of bigotry that is not tolerated here.
For the record, Nancy — this is enough of my blog that you can be gone if you intend to be a party to this kind of bigotry. I’ll remind you that you accused me of something similar. And I don’t mind falling on my sword over this — but you will be out of this place at least.
@Geezer, I’m not trying out anyone but it seems to me that traveler and TBT are pretty similar in many ways. Is that your impression? I just noticed it in traveler’s last few comments as he has a rather short temper and devolves into name calling and things like “Yank Yank Yank. You’re soooooo easy” eerily similar to someone else I’ve seen elsewhere.
On another note, speaking of endorsements, I just go done looking that the Gazette and noticed that every candidate had someone who wrote a letter of support for their favorite candidate. The only one with statement of support was Ayotte. I wonder what the reason behind that is. No one supports Ayotte or writer’s block or something?
@Dave: Of course I’ve noticed. Why do you think I yank that chain so hard? To quote Darth Vader, “He’s as clumsy as he is stupid.”
@Nancy: If there’s one thing Sussex County is full of it’s people with no influence who think they have vast influence. Judson Bennett is one of a long list.
@traveler: As I said, make sure to ask Ayotte about his special-needs son and how much he has taken from the government over the years in caring for him. Then ask him how that squares with his anti-government, black-helicopter twaddle.