The Final Senate Projections
Alright, here is all the final polling for the Senate races, and I will make my final prediction on the composition of the U.S. Senate and House. First, the polls:
ARIZONA—(PPP): Jeff Flake (R) 51, Richard Carmona (D) 46; (YouGov): Jeff Flake (R) 49, Richard Carmona (D) 42—-LEAN GOP.
CALIFORNIA—CA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 56, Elizabeth Emken (R) 39—STRONG DEM.
CONNECTICUT—CT-SEN (YouGov): Chris Murphy (D) 46, Linda McMahon (R) 44—SLIM DEM.
FLORIDA—(Ipsos-Reuters): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 54, Connie Mack IV (R) 39 (LV); Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 55, Connie Mack IV (R) 34 (RV); (Mason Dixon): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 49, Connie Mack IV (R) 43; (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 43 (LV); Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 42 (RV); (YouGov): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 50, Connie Mack IV (R) 44—The average is Nelson 51.4, Mack 42.2, or LEAN DEM.
INDIANA—(YouGov): Joe Donnelly (D) 47, Richard Mourdock (R) 45—SLIM DEM.
MAINE—(Critical Insights): Angus King (I) 49, Charlie Summers (R) 33, Cynthia Dill (D) 11—STRONG DEM*
MARYLAND—(YouGov): Ben Cardin (D) 57, Daniel Bongino (R) 34—STRONG DEM
MASSACHUSETTS—MA-SEN (Univ of Mass-Lowell): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 49, Elizabeth Warren (D) 48; (Western New England College): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 46; MA-SEN (YouGov): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Scott Brown (R) 43—The average is Warren 49.33, Brown 46, or SLIM DEM.
MICHIGAN—(Foster McCollum White/Baydoun-R): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 50, Pete Hoekstra (R) 43; (PPP): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 53, Pete Hoekstra (R) 40; (YouGov): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 53, Pete Hoekstra (R) 41—The average is Stabenow 52, Hoekstra 41.33, or STRONG DEM.
MINNESOTA—(PPP): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 62, Kurt Bills (R) 32; (YouGov): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 60, Kurt Bills (R) 32—STRONG DEM.
MISSOURI—MO-SEN (PPP): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 48, Todd Akin (R) 44, Jonathan Dine (L) 6; (YouGov): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 52, Todd Akin (R) 42—The average is McCaskill 50, Akin 43, or LEAN DEM.
MONTANA—(Mason Dixon): Denny Rehberg (R) 49, Jon Tester (D) 45; (PPP): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 48, Denny Rehberg (R) 46, Dan Cox (L) 4—The average is Rehberg 47.5, Tester 46.5, or SLIM GOP.
NEVADA—(YouGov): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 49, Shelley Berkley (D) 40—LEAN GOP.
NEW JERSEY—(YouGov): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 51, Joe Kyrillos (R) 36—STRONG DEM.
NEW MEXICO—(Public Opinion Strategies for the Wilson campaign): Martin Heinrich (D) 46, Heather Wilson (R) 46, Jon Barrie (IAP) 3; (YouGov): Martin Heinrich (D) 50, Heather Wilson (R) 43—The average is Heinrich 48, Wilson 44.5, or SLIM DEM.
NEW YORK—(YouGov): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 61, Wendy Long (R) 29—STRONG DEM
OHIO—(Columbus Dispatch): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 45; (Ipsos-Reuters): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 42 (LV); Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 39 (RV); (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 45 (LV); Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 44 (RV); (PPP): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 54, Josh Mandel (R) 44—The average is Brown 50.83, Mandel 43.17, or LEAN DEM.
PENNSYLVANIA—(Muhlenberg College): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 42; (PPP): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 52, Tom Smith (R) 44; (Susquehanna Research–R): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 45; (YouGov): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 50, Tom Smith (R) 42—The average is Casey 49, Smith 43.25, or LEAN DEM.
TENNESSEE—(YouGov): Sen. Bob Corker (R) 62, Mark Clayton (D) 29—STRONG GOP
TEXAS—(YouGov): Ted Cruz (R) 57, Paul Sadler (D) 36—STRONG GOP
VIRGINIA—(Ipsos-Reuters): Tim Kaine (D) 48, George Allen (R) 46 (LV); Tim Kaine (D) 47, George Allen (R) 42 (RV); (PPP): Tim Kaine (D) 52, George Allen (R) 46; (YouGov): Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 46—The average is Kaine 48.25, Allen 45, or SLIM DEM.
WASHINGTON—(PPP): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 57, Michael Baumgartner (R) 39; (YouGov): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 56, Michael Baumgartner (R) 38—STRONG DEM.
WISCONSIN—(PPP): Tammy Baldwin (D) 51, Tommy Thompson (R) 48; (YouGov): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 47—-The avergage is Baldwin 49.5, Thompson 47.5, or SLIM DEM.
So, the polling shows that the Dems will pick up Maine (assuming Independent Angus King caucuses with the Dems), Massachusetts and Indiana. The Republicans are likely, based on recent polling, to pick up Montana, North Dakota and Nebraska. If the polling is correct, then the Senate will stay the same, with 53 Democrats and Independents to 47 Republicans. It is quite possible, even probable, that the Dems will retain their seats in Montana and North Dakota. Both races are very close. If that happens, the Dems will increase their majority to either 54 or 55 seats.
Those are the projections. Here is my prediction: I think Jon Tester wins in Montana, and I agree with the rest of the polling, so I predict that the Dems pick up 1 seat, and the new Senate will be 54-46.
As for the House, that is harder to predict or project. The Democrats currently have 193 seats, and the GOP has the majority with 242 seats. With 435 seats in the House, the Dems will need to get to 218 to have a majority, a net gain of 25 seats. Unfortunately, right now, most prognosticators have the GOP retaining control of the House. The Huffington Post has the breakdown right now being 233 R, 185 D and 17 tossups, so even if the Dems win all the toss ups, they don’t win the majority. Similarly, Real Clear Politics has the breakdown right now of 224 R, 178 D and 33 toss ups, and again, even if the Dems win all 33 toss ups, the GOP holds on to the majority. Larry Sabato projects a net Dem pickup of three seats, so that the new Congress will be 239 R, 196 D. I think that is very pessimistic. I think the Dems will pick up between 10-15 seats, and if we are surprised and get a bigger popular vote swing back to Obama (i.e. Obama wins by 4-5 instead of 2-3 points), then it is possible for the Dems to get to the point where they win the extra 10 seats they need for the majority.
But it’s not likely. Regardless, my prediction is that the House margin will be much closer in the next session, with 227 R and 208 Dems. The interesting thing will be whether Boehner finds it easier to work with the 208 Dems and the 20 or so sane Republicans left in order to reach a grand bargain with the President (yes, I just gave away my prediction for the Presidency, which doesn’t come until tomorrow).
Finally, here are some Governor polls.
GOVERNOR POLLS
MISSOURI (PPP): Gov. Jay Nixon (D) 53, Dave Spence (R) 45
MONTANA (PPP): Steve Bullock (D) 48, Rick Hill (R) 48, Ron Vandeventer (L) 2
NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP): Maggie Hassan (D) 51, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 47; (Univ. of New Hampshire): Maggie Hassan (D) 47, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 42, Others 3
WASHINGTON (PPP): Jay Inslee (D) 50, Rob McKenna (R) 48
