2016 Statewides–LG–Handicapping a Scrum
We have a Republican style free for all in the primary for Lt. Governor. For the first time in many decades, the office is open with no obvious “next in line” candidate running, hence the scrum.
State Senator Bethany Hall Long seems to be the favorite, or at least, the establishment favorite, as she has garnered significant support from Legislative Hall, which of course is natural given her current job, including 14 of her fellow Democratic legislators, led by Patti Blevins and Dave McBride.
Trying to handicap this primary is more difficult than the Congressional primary because the lanes of the primary is not as obvious. Yes, Hall-Long is the nominal frontrunner. She can count on establishment support, and support from the South Newark, Glasgow and Middletown areas. In terms of ideology, though, is she a Carperite? Or is she a progressive? Given how hard we had to lobby her on marriage equality, I doubt she can be described as a true progressive, but I also don’t get the sense that she is a Carperite.
Indeed, from the field, I do not feel that any of the candidates can lay claim to either one of the ideological lanes of support in the party. That is what makes this race different from the wide open congressional primary, where Bryon Short is the obvious Carperite and Bryan Townsend is the obvious progressive.
The first candidate in the race, Kent County County Commissioner Brad Eaby, is still an unknown apart from his base of support in part of Kent County. And yes, I know that he is actually a Levy Court Commissioner and not a County Commissioner. But that is stupid, and Kent County is stupid for referring to their County Government as a Levy Court. When I say Levy Court, people naturally think of… guess what… a Court. So they think Brad Eaby and his fellow commissioners are judges. So I am calling them County Commissioners from now on.
Sherry Dorsey Walker is inexplicably running. She is a Wilmington City Councilwoman who challenged Senator Bob Marshall in a primary in 2014 in the 3rd Senatorial District. She lost a razor thin campaign, 51-49. It would make more sense to make another go of it in 2018, or, if a miracle strikes and Marshall is elected Wilmington Mayor in 2016, run in a special election to replace him. It just seems odd to go from losing a primary for Senator to Lt. Governor. That said, Dorsey Walker can claim support from the state’s most populous city, and in a primary where the voter doesn’t recognize the names of anyone, having more people recognize their city councilwoman is an advantage.
Rehoboth Beach Commissioner Kathy McGuiness is an interesting candidate. She is the endorsed candidate of House Speaker Peter Schwartzkopf. So that gives her some relevance in the race that she would not otherwise on her own. Indeed, she has deservedly received the Celia Cohen scorn treatment, given her history of changing political affliations and residences:
For now, McGuiness is a Democrat, but it does not exactly come with the ringing resolve of Democrat today, Democrat tomorrow, Democrat forever. Since McGuiness first registered to vote in Delaware in 1995, state election records show she has gone from Republican to Democrat to Republican to missing from the rolls — she did not vote here in 2012 — to the minor Independent Party of Delaware to Democrat.
McGuiness is a factor because Schwartzkopf wants her to be a factor. For what purpose I have no idea.
Former Sussex County Register of Wills Greg Fuller is also running, and he is a well known name down in Sussex County. But that is really it. Current New Castle County Register of Wills Ciro Poppiti is also running, for reasons passing understanding. He doesn’t seem to have an online campaign presence yet, which makes me wonder if he is reconsidering jumping into the mess that the New Castle County Executive and Council President races. 
So if I had to handicap this race at this early stage, it would be based on location, name recognition and establishment support. Hall-Long is the most well known candidate next to Poppiti. Hall-Long wins the Establishment battle with McGuiness. Thus, she is the frontrunner. I feel like Fuller and McGuiness cancel each other out in terms of dividing their Sussex County support. Poppiti remains relevant, and in my estimation, based on his New Castle County countywide position and thus higher name recognition. Dorsey Walker will have a larger base of support just based on her former Wilmington council district.
So my “power rankings” of the race at this moment is:
1. Hall Long
2. Poppiti
3. Dorsey Walker
4. McGuiness
5. Fuller
6. Eaby
Tags: Bethany Hall-Long, Brad Eaby, Ciro Poppiti, Featured, Greg Fuller, Kathy McGuiness, Sherry Dorsey Walker
The Sussex County Women’s Democrat Club is sponsoring the Democrat Lieutenant Governor’s Debate, Saturday, April 16, 2016, in Georgetown from 10 until noon. Only candidates who have filed and paid their filing fees are invited to participate. For more information contact club President Rhonda Tuman, scwdc2016@gmail.com.
I agree with your rankings, but I believe you’ve got a typo in your intro, and possibly an omission. Carney would have been the obvious choice for LG in 2000, not 2010 (when there was no election for that office). And Matt Denn was pretty much a shoo-in eight years later.
As for Poppiti, he’s bright and enthusiastic but, at this time, far more suited to be county executive. However, he was hoping that Gordon would run for governor, leaving him a clear path to the office. That’s not happening, so he threw himself into the mix for LG. I wish Gordon would get out, but he won’t, and I don’t see Ciro challenging Gordon in a primary (even less likely now that Stephanie Hansen is considering it) unless he’s certain that the party’s overlords will throw their weight behind him and make it clear that Gordon is persona non grata.
Sherry Dorsey Walker is a CURRENT Wilmington City Council member.
Well, that will teach me to write a post before the coffee kicks in. First, I confuse the LG and Congressional race history (I deleted that silloquy, Mediawatch) and then I forget Walker is still in office.
Greg Fuller should be below the bottom of any list. He was appointed to fill a term by Minner in 2008, serving in one of the most obscure and ridiculous jobs out there. In 2010, he couldn’t hold on to the job he’d been handed on a silver platter, losing with 43 percent of the vote. In 2014, he tried for a rematch and lost with 39 percent. So every time he’s been up before voters for an irrelevant, obsolete, paper-pushing absentee part-time job, they have said no. And now he’s applying to be a heartbeat away from the governorship.
Why, exactly, should a voter look twice at him?
Don’t worry Delaware Dem. Everyone in Wilmington forgot she was still in office a long time ago.
That’s not quite true. But she does have constituents who do feel that she’s stopped paying attention to them in order to just keep running for other stuff. And constituent service is really her only calling card, since there are no governing achievements to speak of. Sherry is also Ride-or-Die for Dennis Williams which I wonder if her downstate supporters get.
I notice that neither Brad Eaby or Sherry Dorsey-Walker have filed for Lt. Gov yet.
I like Sherry. I’ve known her since she was in high school, and I think she’s intelligent and passionate. But she’s also chosen a career as a film producer, and you can’t show me anyone working in Delaware who isn’t related to Ellen Kullman who has achieved prosperity in that field. So I suspect that one reason for her entering politics (and seeking higher offices) is to help put food on the table. That said, she should have figured out by now that hitching her wagon to Dennis Williams’ pony isn’t going to carry her very far if she’s running for office outside the city of Wilmington (and Williams’ coattails in the city won’t be very long next year either).
It’s a pretty open secret that Carney wants Hall-Long.
Because (a) she’s a woman and (b) she’s from below the canal. In other words, a balanced ticket.
Possibly the only person in Delaware who still thinks, to the extent that he thinks at all, in those terms. Besides, if he truly wanted a balanced ticket, he’d put a progressive on it.
ES – Who’s the most progressive person on the list (as you see it)?
Is there one? Seems to be a buncha people who want to be ‘somebodies’.
I’d probably lean towards Ciro Poppiti, but the list is hardly inspiring.
So perhaps Ms. McGuinness voted in Utah in 2012?
This comes from a trusted Anonymous Tipster, who also notes that there’s reporting out there that notes McGuinness resigned her previous position in Rehoboth to move to Utah. Which isn’t against the law or anything, but then you have to wonder about the constitutional requirement for office. As I understand it, the Lt. Gov position doesn’t come with explicit residency requirements, but the Governor’s office does — you have to live here 6 years prior to taking office. It seems reasonable to presume that the person a heartbeat away from that office would need to satisfy those requirements too. But then, I’m not a lawyer.
Pete’s pick proves perfidious! SHOCKING!!
[Side note to Pete: Perfidious means deceitful and untrustworthy.]
Cassandra M –
I have not dug into your issue deeply, but on its face, section 19 of article III of our State Constitution does say that the Lt. Gov. “shall possess the same qualifications of eligibility for office as the Governor.” That would seem to impose the 6 year DE residency requirement on the Lt. Gov. position.
SussexWatcher – does Fuller’s inability to win an election in a conservative area really mean he shouldn’t be high on the list? Should we perhaps look at ideas first? I don’t know where he stands on things, but an African-American Democrat in Sussex County losing isn’t exactly shocking.
If as suggested Bethany Hall Long is John Carney’s secret choice, it’s not surprising since she is the only one running qualified to take over the government should something happen to Carney. Whether you like her position on issues, it would be difficult to argue that she’s not head and shoulders above the rest of what is a questionable field.
Good point. The same couldn’t be said when Ruth Ann Minner, in order to avoid the wrath of Tom Carper, pulled Carney out of obscurity and put him on her ticket.
That choice preempted a ‘field’.
If it is a secret that Bethany Hall Long is John Carney’s choice of running mate, it is the worst kept secret in Delaware.
@Mike: I’ve talked to Fuller. He’s not prepared for the job he used to have, let alone this one.
I realize Hall-Long is often credited as the “swing vote” for marriage equality, but I’m still vexed by her waffling so long.
She believes in getting elected. I’ve never discerned any other core values. In that way she is a perfect match for Carney.
Look at it this way: BHL would be the second woman to hold the position, and the first to be qualified to take over as governor.
Mike: The people who know Fuller the best soundly sent him packing twice. He was given a do-nothing job, held it for two years, and despite that couldn’t convince people to keep him on. That should tell us a good deal about his skills and abilities. Again, what does he bring to the table? “Ideas” is the campaign slogan of empty-suit candidates.
John Carney had been Secretary of Finance [among the three most consequential cabinet positions] and ran the county during Dennis’ second term.
No, he hadn’t been state Senator from Silview; his roles were more important.
Yes, how many times have I heard you say that he spent 8 years preparing to be governor?
The problem isn’t his resume, it’s his instincts. He has the brains, and I fear the heart, of a conservative. What you’ve never come forward with is an explanation of why he deserves the vote of any liberal/progressive.
Saying that Carney has the brains and heart of a conservative means that he has some thoughts than run deeper than his desire to simply be elected. I don’t see any evidence of that.
It is all chicken wire and paper machete.
Some senior Carney folks are pressuring him to endorse BHL…behind the scenes he is allegedly encouraging his donors to give to her, but is resisting an actual endorsement unless things get hairy in the campaign.
Also, FWIW, the LGBT community is very wary of McGuiness because she gave money to Republican State Senator Ernie Lopez’s campaign (only $100, but still), who voted against marriage equality and hasn’t expressed any regret for that vote. I know that doesn’t necessarily speak to her broader progressive bona fides, but I thought it was worth mentioning.
Take a look at who gets appointed Secretary of Finance over the years and it’s been predominantly a list of people guaranteed to provide the Delaware Way, reporting only what their bosses want to hear (granted that is in an appointee’s job description). It is a furthering of the argument in support of Carney’s lack of independence.
WHAT?!?!
Get hairy in HER campaign? I don’t see it. But I guess this reticence is in keeping with the chicken-shit image he is trying to cultivate.
If it was a Republican Presidential year, or a midyear, Ken Simpler would be gearing up to clean Carney’s clock right now. He is too smart to run against a Dem wave and lose, but he and Dave Burris must be cursing the political Gods about having to pass up this low hanging fruit.
Some people have Putin envy. Others have Simpler envy.
Higher office not likely for Ken.