Cassandra & El Somnambulo Predict ‘Em (Almost) All For You

Filed in Delaware, Featured by on September 8, 2016

Our Prediction Percentage could well be down from recent years, especially with close races at the top of the ballot. Cassandra has written the City of Wilmington predictions, El Somnambulo the rest.  Clip & save (or destroy, if we hit the electoral iceberg):

US Congress (D): A battle of divergent campaign strategies.  The TV media campaigns of Lisa Blunt Rochester and Sean Barney could work–if casual voters who were going to vote anyway are influenced by the commercials and cast votes their way.  However, in a low turnout primary where pretty much only the most committed voters come out, I like the grassroots campaign of Bryan Townsend to prevail.  In fact, look for Townsend’s margin in the Newark area to be greater than that of Lisa’s in Wilmington.

Governor (R): The more I think about it (granted, I’m guilty of overthinking), I think Lacey Lafferty beats Colin Bonini.  The Delaware Rethug Party is firmly in the hands of the Sussex wingnuts, Lafferty is a Sussex wingnut. And Bonini is still lazy.  The fact that there are a couple of local Sussex R primaries doesn’t hurt Lafferty either.

Lt. Governor (D): It’s a three-way battle between  Bethany Hall-Long, Kathleen McGuiness and Ciro Poppiti.   I don’t see a realistic scenario for the other three candidates.  Poppiti will need to come out of northern NCC and the City of Wilmington with a significant lead. Since BHL has Sussex roots, as one astute observer pointed out, she will at least hold her own in Sussex County, especially western Sussex, should win big in southern NCC, and should edge out McGuiness and Poppiti.

Insurance Commissioner (D): I wish that Navarro had run a more aggressive campaign and effectively challenged the truly dismal record of the incumbent.  But he didn’t.  I think Karen Weldin Stewart prevails among low-information voters, and wins.  Hope I’m wrong.

Insurance Commissioner (R): Well, since the power base of what remains of the Republican Party is centered in Sussex County, I predict that the gay-hating George Parish defeats perennial loser Jeffrey Cragg.  What a choice in the general…

Senate District 1 (D): Incumbent Harris McDowell easily defeats first-time challenger Joseph McCole.

Senate District 9 (D): DL-endorsed candidate Caitlin Olsen may well be the right candidate–but in the wrong district.  John Walsh parlays a lifetime of contacts in the 9th to a primary win.

House District 7 (D): Incumbent Bryon Short big-timed the candidates who had filed by jumping back into this race after burning through scads of money in his failed congressional bid.  There is still a lot of support for Brady, who represented Claymont in Dover over a decade ago.  Short will prevail, but I think Brady gets over 40%. The big question: Does Short abandon the district for a second time for a spot in the Carney Administration? If so, he should pay for the cost of a special election out of his own pocket.  He won’t.

House District 9 (D):  Corporate trainer Rick Griffiths, who has the committee endorsement, should prevail against pastor, author, life motivational speaker, teacher, writer, and ‘Leader in her community and surrounding areas’ Monique Johns. However, and LG please correct me if I’m wrong, his campaign doesn’t fill me with confidence for the general election.

House District 10 (D):  How clueless is Delusional Dennis Williams (the other one)? So clueless that he is running against Sean Matthews b/c of Sean’s commitment to education. Don’t believe me?  From the News-Journal article on the race:

“I think Sean’s been a one-issue legislator,” Williams complained. “He is always looking to get more for teachers, new books, new buildings, pay increases. I guess that’s not surprising given that he is a teacher himself, but it is definitely a conflict of interest.”

Parents and teachers hate that!

As opposed to what Williams did: selling his leadership vote to Pete Schwartzkopf for a slot on the Bond Bill Committee. And we all have seen Matthews’ record on a wide range of bills.  Matthews should, and deserves to, hasten Williams return to the Protack-type loser he was before 2008. He will.

House District 14: Don Peterson deserves the thanks of the entire progressive community.  His challenge to Pete Schwartzkopf is every bit as worthy as Bryan Townsend’s challenge to Tony DeLuca in 2012. DeLuca and Schwartzkopf represent the worst that Dover has to offer. Here’s why I don’t think it will end the same way: DeLuca was basically a no-show in his district, and people noticed. Schwartzkopf has remained much more visible and involved.  I hope that Peterson views this race as a beginning.  Next time might be different. Or…he could take on Ernie Lopez, who just might have some problems of his own. For now, Schwartzkopf prevails.

House District 15 (D): Valerie Longhurst could well have a fight on her hands against a credible challenger.  Unfortunately, James Burton has not demonstrated credibility during his previous two runs.  Longhurst, say, 65-35.

House District 33 (R):  I admit that I have no clue. A three-way R primary to replace Rep. Peterman, who basically didn’t show up his last two terms due to health issues. The voters didn’t mind. I’m gonna go with the good ol’ boy in the race, Charles Postles of Milford, a farmer and ‘Christian conservative’ over Morgan Hudson, who appears too young and too sane to get elected, and Harrington’s Robert Scott, who is from Harrington. State Senator Gary Simpson is backing Postles.

House District 35 (R): I look for marble-mouthed auctioneer Rep. David Wilson to prevail over challenger Bob Mitchell.  Mitchell, however, is certainly capable of matching Wilson malaprop for malaprop.  Check out his website.

New Castle County Executive (D):

Upset Special. Matt Meyer will never be accused of peaking too soon.  In fact, for the first few months after his announcement, I wondered if he was running a serious campaign.  But his grassroots campaign has taken off in the past few weeks, while Tom Gordon appears to have been caught flat-footed. Meyer has turned this into a referendum on Gordon and particularly into a referendum on Gordon’s ethics.  Plus, I know that signs don’t vote, but at least here in Brandywine Hundred, the number of lawns with Meyer signs is astounding. The momentum is firmly on his side. I think he wins.

New Castle County Executive (R):

Mark Blake has run before,  Barry Nahe hasn’t. Nahe is running on a platform of turning New Castle County into Silicon Valley, something that is not gonna happen.  Blake wins this low-key primary handily.

New Castle County President (D):

Oy.  Penrose Hollins (a) is running on a ticket with Tom Gordon and (b) remains among the least energetic candidates I have ever covered.  Dave Roberts is well-regarded among people in county government who I respect, but his campaign remains invisible.  Which leaves…gaack!  Karen Hartley-Nagle.  I think that low-information voters will lean towards her and that she will win. Yes, I’m serious. And depressed.

I’m sorry. I’m not gonna call the other Kent and Sussex County races. Other than to predict that serial low-life Mark Schaeffer will be rejected by the good voters of Sussex County Council District 3.  In fact, I call that race for Irwin Burton. Or maybe Kevin Burdette. But not the other two. I’m sure of it. Almost. OK, I’ll pick Burdette.

City of Wilmington
This is going to be tough. Seriously. There is so much electoral energy in the city this season and everything that happens completely depends upon turnout. The marquis race in the city is the one for Mayor, of course, with a massive field of contenders. City Council also has a great many contenders, but I don’t think that there is quite as much interest in that set of races. Still.

Mayor — this is so hard to call. It’s going to be Williams, Purzycki, Kelley or Young. The others are just out of it. If the stars align, Williams and Purzycki will cancel each other out like matter and anti-matter. They are playing flip sides of the Campaigning for Us strategy — Williams mostly on Channel 28 (and likely in pulpits) while Purzycki is personally more visible in the places he feels have his votes. Purzycki has a campaign office within the city limits and has more money (that has been remarkably badly spent — the sign of the developer, I think). Williams is still mostly not visible. Both are working their own versions of the Race Card. I badly want neither of these plays to win.

I’m going to give the edge to Kelley and Young. It feels that Young has some real momentum right now and they’ve identified their voters. As in they have a real list. It’s down to GOTV. I’m calling it for Young. But this is also where my heart is, so take it for what it is worth. But it is going to be a nail-biter.

City Council President — uninspiring choices here too. Running are Hanifa Shabazz (4th District City Councilwoman), Justen Wright (at Large Councilman) and John McCafferty. No idea who McCafferty is. I’m calling this one for Shabazz. She’s been working hard at this and Wright isn’t really campaigning. Wright is the endorsed candidate of the Williams machine though. Shabazz has the advantage of not being Wright so as people look at the two of them, they are making the “lessor of two bad choices” deal.

City Treasurer — ugh, this race. Henry Supinski, who has been a steady and credible hand running this office for years is retiring. Running to replace him are Darius Brown (3rd District Councilman), Velda Jones-Potter (fired Williams Senior Advisor), Ken Matlusky. I think that Jones-Potter’s involvement in the Foxtail controversy should disqualify her. But I think she wins. I think that she has enough name recognition and there aren’t many people who care about the misuse of city resources here. Darius doesn’t have an especially good resume for this and wants this office to be more about technology, than stewardship of the city’s finances. Ken has the right background for this too. That is who I voted for. But I think that Jones-Potter wins and brings some voters for Williams voters with her. Which was the point of Ed Osborne drafting her for this race in the first place.

City Council:

2nd District is being contested by Trippi Congo and Kat Perkins. Kat is a longtime community leader running against a City Councilman who is most visible on his Facebook page. He does little to advance (or propose) ideas that will stabilize or move the City forward — meaning that his term in City Council has been quite uninspiring. Kat is working hard at reaching out to people in her district and if that District was interested in City Council representation that might help them, Kat would win. Unfortunately, people will vote the Congo name, not the Congo track record. Trippi wins here.

3rd District is currently represented by Darius Brown who is running for City Treasurer. Running to replace him are Tyler P. Brooks, nonprofit founder Erin Hutt and Zanthia Oliver. Erin Hutt is working hard at this and has an excellent reputation in the city. No idea why Brooks is running and Zanthia Oliver is sister to Norman Oliver, so I am sure she’s running to help bolster support for Purzycki in this District. The same old nonsense. Yawn. Hutt wins here.

4th District is currently represented by Hanifa Shabazz who is running for City Council President. Michelle Harlee, who is a VP of the 4th District Neighborhood Planning Council, and Robert P. Cannon, formerly with the controversial Cease Violence Wilmington project. Harlee has run a spectacularly professional campaign and has been plagued by the usual campaign nonsense (sign stealing, accusations that she doesn’t live in her district). Cannon is a supporter of Purzycki. I’ve seen a few of his signs, but not much else. Calling this one for Harlee.

5th District is represented by Sam Prado who is leaving the City Council at the end of this term. Sam has not been a very good City Councilman (full disclosure — he is my City Councilman) and has largely disappeared for the last 4 years. In the process, he’s abandoned a lot of good people trying to get good stuff done in that District who badly need some help. Running to replace him are Gervasio (Jerry) Velazquez, Anthony Miller and Vashun Turner. Jerry is my neighbor and has been extremely active all over the community for almost two decades. He’s been knocking on doors and meeting people since early spring — no idea what the other two are doing. Jerry Velazquez wins.

6th District is represented by Sherry Dorsey-Walker who is running for Lt. Governor. Running to replace her are Yolanda McCoy and Heather Taylor. McCoy works for West End Neighborhood House and has been working in all parts of this community. Taylor is an officer with the Hedgeville Community Asociation and is Dorsey-Walker’s hand-picked successor. Yolanda has had lots of energy and a great set of volunteers working with her, plus her background with West End gives her a unique head start on constituent services. Calling it for McCoy.

City Council At-Large: The top 3 make it to the General to face off against the top 3 GOP candidates. Interestingly, the GOP has a genuinely interesting field this year. Interesting enough that you wonder why they didn’t plot out a better strategy for their Mayoral run. Still, here are the Dems:

Tyrone C. Johnson, Sr.
Loretta Walsh
Richard L. Dyton
Brunilda Luna-Mercado
Edythe L. Pridgen
Waynna Dobson
Rysheema Dixon
Samuel L. Guy
Gladys Brister Spikes

Seriously? I think that there are two serious candidates in this pool — Loretta Walsh and Rysheema Dixon. Both make it to the final 3. Waynna Dobson and Sam Guy are employees of Tom Gordon and both are looking for Williams’ coattails here.

The GOP candidates:
Ciro Adams
Benjamin Cohen
Gregory T. Luna
Robert Keesler

Ciro Adams has been working at reviving the City’s Republican Club and has done that in a pretty inclusive way. Keesler has run before and has some name recognition and Luna has been pretty visible as a community activist in Cool Springs. I think that Adams, Luna and Keesler make it to the final 3.

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  1. Michelle says:

    Regarding Michelle Harlee’s excerpt, the majority of this information is accurate EXCEPT she has not been accused of stealing signs and not living in her district. She’s a professional indeed.

  2. cassandra_m says:

    I should have been clearer — other people are stealing HER signs and I have seen accusations from (unreliable) others that she doesn’t live in the District. She does, of course, but my intent was to point out the depths that people will take to work against her.

  3. Jason330 says:

    Great stuff. Re: Rick Griffiths… There is keeping ones powered dry, and there is phoning it in. Not sure which strategy Griffiths is using, but I hope it is the powder one. The 9th should be a D district, and probably would be except for Pete Schwarzkopf’s perfidy.

    I disagree on Karen Weldin Stewart. If the traditional “not Karen Wedlin Stewart” vote shows up Navarro wins.

  4. Mikey P says:

    Purzycki for Mayor! He will crush Young, Williams, & Kelley!

  5. chris says:

    -1)Hard to pick the Mayor’s race. Could be a close call between Kelley, Purzycki and Young. 2) El Som is right. Trinni did not do enough to win this seat. Lackluster effort.
    3)Too much anti Velda sentiment out there from Foxtail debacle and being publicly fired . She won’t win. Too much baggage.4) Yes, Matt Meyer has big momentum- he will win this race and send Gordon packing.

  6. anonymous says:

    Why would you want Purzycki to win? I admit I was intrigued when his name was first floated, but his performance as a candidate has been dreadful. He’s made it clear he has no vision for the city beyond his vision for the Riverfront, which in many ways has become the enemy of the rest of the city (perhaps not for residents, but definitely for business owners).

    MP is certainly capable of doing the job, but he’s acting and talking as if he doesn’t really want it.

  7. Mitch Crane says:

    Good predictions.

    Let me add some thoughts that may change thinking:

    1.Navarro will win. He has support in NCC and Wilmington I did not have. KWS has lost the last vestiges of support she had in Sussex. It is a two-person race and she has never done better than 40%- 32% last time.

    2. Lt Governor- yes Bethany Hall-Long has roots in Sussex, but most Sussex Democrats do not have such roots and do not know her. The ground game in this contest in Sussex is Poppiti and Greg Fuller, with Bethany third. Sherry Dorsey-Walker had support here but she has faded.

    3. 33rd House R Primary- Gary Simpson may have endorsed one of the candidates, but his district is a majority Sussex district and only part of the Kent portion is in the 33rd. Colin Bonnini is the senator representing most of the 33rd (not sure he knows that). Whoever wins the R primary will lose in November to Dem Karen Williams, who will retake the seat held by Dem Bob Walls before Peterman.

    4. 3rd County Council- Yes IG Burton has spent the most money and is the favorite, but do not discount Pumpkin Chunkin founder (and former Dem state house candidate) Frank Shade-he could win a 4 person low turnout primary. This is a Democratic seat and environmental attorney Leslie Ledogar will win in November.

    5. Dave Wilson is favored to win his 35th RD Primary ( a right winger challenged by an even righter winger) but if Bob Mitchell wins, we have former Milford School Board President Gary Wolfe ready to challenge in this evenly divided by registration district.

    6. Pete Schwartzkopf will win handily in the 14th. Don Peterson has run a good campaign with little funding, and, yes he should look at challenging Lopez in 2018-but he will have to heal the rifts his followers have caused. Not impossible in politics.

    7. Congress- Townsend has the ground game in Sussex. Barney’s social security proposals have resonated with many seniors and he and Rochester are all over cable. Rochester will lose Sussex votes to Micheal Miller (not a typo) who has support in parts of Sussex from his previous 4 runs for office. His votes are almost all from Rochester.

  8. Mitch: Are you saying that you don’t see McGuiness as a viable candidate?

  9. Kelly says:

    I agree with Chris. I don’t think Velda will win. She has to much blurt on her that is well know and more that people don’t know about. She needs to go get a job outside of government. Or maybe that’s her problem she can’t. I see Darius winning.

  10. Cassandra: That Treasurer’s race is interesting. Based on the calculus of the voting electorate and the candidates in the race, do you think Matlusky could pull an upset victory?

  11. Jason330 says:

    If Don Peterson challenges Lopez in 2018 he’ll be challenging Pete’s guy. Let’s face it.

  12. Delaware Dem says:

    My slate:

    Congress-Townsend
    LG-Hall-Long
    IC-Navarro
    NCCExec–Meyer
    NCCCPres–Roberts

  13. I wanna get back to the IC race, and why I think Mitch is wrong. Although I will be voting for Trini.

    Yes, it’s true that KWS has never really eclipsed 40% in previous primaries. But this is the first primary that is a two-way primary, which explains why she never has. Someone will eclipse 50%. And, she HAS, after all, won two general elections. So most of the D’s have ‘come home’ in the past.

    The 2012 race is instructive, but I’m not sure the right lessons were learned. That race was a referendum on KWS’ performance and she only polled 32%. However, at least one of the candidates in that race, Gallagher, regardless of what he now says, was recruited as a spoiler and did his job well.

    Navarro has not made this race a referendum on KWS, and there are those who are concerned that he has ties to Gordon. Despite what Mitch wrote, Navarro isn’t going to do any better, in fact he’ll do worse, than Crane did in Sussex and Kent Counties. And the inability of Navarro to make KWS’ record the issue that it was in 2012 virtually guarantees that low-information voters will likely support the incumbent.

    I really hope I’m wrong.

  14. Jason330 says:

    That all checks out.

  15. DD: Your prediction, or how you’re voting? I’m voting for Roberts, but I don’t think he can win. Still not sure on LG, it’s either gonna be Ciro or BHL for me.

  16. Delaware Dem says:

    I’m sorry, should have been clear… it is how I am voting. I am going to shy away from predicting, though I will say that either Townsend or Meyer will win, but not both of them. Having both win would be miraculous. And if we hit the Progressive Trifecta of Townsend, Meyer and Young, we all must retire immediately for such success will never come again

  17. Mitch Crane says:

    El Som- Thanks for catching that. It was an oversight. Kathy has less support in Sussex than people in NCC think. She has more support in NCC than people in Sussex think. What she has going for her is her fundraising, good mailers, and very effective TV ads- she runs a 30 second piece, then follows an unrelated advertisement with another 30 second piece. People notice it. The race is between Hall-Long, Poppiti and McGuiness.

    Also, El Som, KWS had a two-person primary in 2004, when she lost to Matt Denn. i hope you are wrong, as are most consumers who are in the know, not to mention a majority of the merit employees of the Dept of Insurance. Trini has taken the race to the KWS record-on Highmark, rate increases, the majority of her contributions from out of state and her foreign travel-much of it paid for by big insurance companies. Sadly, the major media outlet has all that information and some higher up decided not to run the story.

  18. Mikey P says:

    I want Mike to win because he will gentrify Wilmington. And more, Young stole Mike’s list of supporters and put it on his Facebook page.

  19. If either Kelley/Young come in 1-2 in whichever order, I hope that #1 offers #2 the Chief of Staff position. Get away from all this divide and conquer stuff.

  20. Thanks for playing, Mikey. Someone may pat you on your head.

  21. Mitch: While McGuiness has SOME NCC support, it’s nowhere near enough to get her elected if she underperforms in Sussex. Since I don’t want her to win under any circumstances, I’ll take this as good news.

  22. Mikey P says:

    Look man, Purzycki is winning. Mayor Williams has done a goo job, but it’s MIKE TIME. I hope Mayor Williams agrees to be his COS.

  23. sussex_dem says:

    mikey p….exactly!! miller time this tuesday!!

  24. JTF says:

    If Kathy McGuinness wins – someone who has been in bed with Republicans for years – then shame on the Democratic party in this state.

  25. mouse says:

    The democratic party in DE is owned by corporate and party interests. It rarely acts in the interests of average people.

  26. mediawatch says:

    Regardless of who wins in Wilmington, the real work must begin on Wednesday.

    Putting aside Williams’ pitiful performance over the last four years, he doomed himself in the four months between the primary and taking the oath. First, he failed to assemble a workable staff. Second, and more important, he ignored the need to build bridges to the supporters of his opponents. As a result, he took office with nowhere near the support that he believed he had.
    With more candidates running this time, the outcome will likely be even more fractured. If the winner pulls 33 percent of the vote, that means that 2 out of 3 primary voters wanted someone else. Whether it’s Young, Kelley or Purzycki, whoever comes in first had better have the prudence to reach out to his rivals and find a way to bring them into the fold.
    If they neglect this necessary step, they will be spending the next four years with a bull’s eye on their back.

  27. Michelle says:

    Thank you for your prompt response!

  28. Emma says:

    In Sussex, my prediction is that the Trump people will come out en masse and every single Dem will lose in Nov.

  29. Mikey P says:

    Are you for real? The next mayor won’t want to hear what the others have to say. The winner will get the majority of the Democratic vote in the General. Most voters aren’t as tribal as we are.

  30. Paul P says:

    Aside from putting up signs (poorly designed) I don’t think Richard has done anything in the 9th. I didn’t even know there was a primary here until his signs started popping up.

    9th is conservative and a lot of I’s are really R’s. Without a candidate that can raise money And is out knocking everyday Hensely wins that easily. primary is a toss up ..

    If the GOP surge last election didnt happen and there was an incumbent dem running it would be a different story.

  31. Mitch Crane says:

    I hope the people who thought I was “Emma” now realize that mistake.

  32. mediawatch says:

    Yes, Mikey, I’m for real. It’s pretty clear from watching the current mayor is that he has a big problem accepting the validity of any opinions other than his own. That’s why six other Democrats are trying to take him down on Tuesday. Highly unlikely that the primary winner will secure more than 50 percent of the vote in the primary — and what he gets in the general is irrelevant. (Face it, if Donald Trump were a Democrat and had the party’s nomination, he would probably beat any Republican running for mayor of Wilmington.)
    The point is — it’s one thing to win an election, it’s another to actually govern the city successfully. Bluster and demagoguery don’t work — you’ve got to bring competing factions together and have them collaborate with you. If you don’t, you’ll be looking at another five-way, six-way, seven-way primary four years from now.
    BTW, I believe Young, Kelley and Purzycki are wise enough to do what I’m suggesting (and so is Norman Griffiths) … though I fear that Mike’s ego might get in the way.

  33. Emma says:

    They thought you were Heather.

  34. AQC says:

    I am just terrified of what will happen to this city if the vote is fractured enough for Williams to squeak out a victory.

  35. Ant says:

    Since Dave Roberts hasn’t stolen signs or accused someone of stealing signs, he hasn’t been in the headlines but he is campaigning! Take a look at the facebook

    https://www.facebook.com/DavidRobertsNCC/

  36. Delaware Dem says:

    Wait.. someone said Mayor Williams has been a good mayor??? The trolls are out!

  37. Mikey P says:

    Yes, Mayor Williams has been an excellent leader. Would you rather have Robert Bovell as mayor?

  38. Charles In Charge says:

    In the top two races, I think the women will clean-up. I expect wins from Lisa Blunt and BHL.

  39. Mitch Crane says:

    Sorry again..Emma and Heather look so much alike

  40. cassandra_m says:

    Mayor Williams has been an excellent leader. Would you rather have Robert Bovell as mayor?

    The trolls are out for sure. The second place finisher in that race was Kevin Kelley. Who would have been a better Mayor any day of the week from Williams. Bovell was never a factor.

  41. cassandra_m says:

    Based on the calculus of the voting electorate and the candidates in the race, do you think Matlusky could pull an upset victory?

    I don’t know. It would be very cool if it did. Velda does have a constituency in the city, and enough people are unconcerned enough about the ethics of the Foxtail thing that she could pull it off. Darius has been campaigning longer for this, but I haven’t met anyone through this season who is comfortable putting someone in charge of the city’s tenuous money issues without any background in money management. That’s anecdotal, though.

  42. SussexWatcher says:

    Here’s the challenge facing both Wilmington and NCCO if Williams and Gordon lose on Tuesday: They have four more months in power. That’s four months to hire, fire, shred, hide, “reorganize,” delete, buy, sell, write checks, sign contracts, and generally screw stuff up for the people succeeding them. There is no formal transition process in place for those jobs, no adult in the room overseeing stuff, and no one to tell Dennis or Tommy “No” when they get pissy. If I were Meyer or Kelley/Young/Mike P, I’d be very nervous about just what kind of a government I was going to inherit in January. As an example, there’s nothing keeping the incumbents from draining the discretionary accounts and leaving the incoming mayor or executive with nothing to run the government with for six months until the new fiscal year starts.

  43. AAuen says:

    This is a pretty good prediction; but I honestly believe Caitilin has a good chance in the 9th Senate District. She has been running a fantastic grassroots campaign! As a resident of the 33rd I can tell you that while Postles might be the favorite to win, Morgan has so many signs out and a considerable amount of supporters in the 33rd… I think Kathy has enough support in each county to edge out a victory for LG… other than that I agree with this list.

    PS… This blog really needs someone in Lower Slower to keep track with the political happenings down here… Believe it or not, it’s just as interesting as Wilmington

  44. the other anonymous says:

    Insurance Comm Race – Hopefully, Navarro picks up some steam and takes the race.
    New Castle County – Myers and Blake, Blake has done a great job, working in the community.
    Mayor – We need real help. Kelly takes it. Young does not have the experience, to be the Mayor of Wilmington. A city that is in dire need of leadership, direction, budget expertise and a strong voice. The city needs a strong negotiator. Kelly can do this and has the background and experience.

  45. Hmm says:

    Has Kelley done more than one piece of mail? I like Kevin but just not sure people other than the hyper aware folks will know who he is.

    Barney, Young, Bhl, Weldin Stewart, Meyer in my book.

  46. Kelly says:

    I think everyone is missing the point about Velda. It is not just the foxtail issue it is the 90,000 contract she took when she was State Treasurer and the $86,000.00 she owes for a root she had put on and never paid the construction co. I want someone I can trust that is not going to rip off the city for her own gain. Get it now.

  47. Citizen36 says:

    Sussex Watcher is right, and way back in 2004, (how soon we forget the mess he made) County Council had to step in and stop the Exec Office’s out of control spending. http://www.delaforum.com/2004/Apr-Jun/ARTICLES/Special%20Council%20Meeting%20(5-27).htm

    But never mind, he’s going to bring 100,000 new jobs to the port and we’ll all be fat and happy.

  48. anonymous says:

    “Believe it or not, it’s just as interesting as Wilmington”

    Until 1770, the public was welcome to wander the halls of Bedlam, London’s infamous hospital for the insane. It was considered entertainment. So there’s precedent.

  49. Another Mike says:

    Dave Brady is going to clean house in Claymont. We all remember his previous service. Unfortunately, you are likely right about bait-and-switch Bryon Short, who probably has enough support in the Brandywine Hundred portion of the 7th RD to win. But I’m voting for Dave, and you should, too.

  50. E. Gregious says:

    So judging by a lot of the comments here, Stewart has a real chance at a third term, although only by default and deception, as usual. I didn’t think she’d even get a first term. Her name next to “Insurance Commissioner” is still as ridiculous as it ever was. I’m probably not alone in thinking that at this point, even an R would be better than this loser. I heard she plans on retiring early next year and getting on the boards of some of her crony insurance companies so she can keep traveling the world at their expense and keep getting paid for doing nothing. It’s what she does best.

  51. The Godfather says:

    I’m at a loss as to specifically what the people who post on this site find objectionable about Mike Purzycki as a person or a candidate for mayor. It’s fair to say I know Eugene Young or Kevin Kelly and I think they’d make a great mayor. But when you attempt to promotes their interests by personally denigrating Mr Purzycki without basis. that’s trolling. They somehow suggest that because he appeals to republicans and independents, that’s a negative. While I’m clearly biased, I think Mike Purzycki is heads and shoulders above the rest of the field and has the experience, values, and accomplishment to represent all of the people in the city better than the rest of the field. His involvement in the Hope Commission and the achievement center eventually becoming Chairman demonstrates certainly a broader commitment to all of Wilmington than has been suggested on this site. Further, what is little known, he took a young black child who was in trouble into his home as raised him as if he were his son. Doesn’t sound like Mr. Republican as Mayor Williams likes to refer to Mr. Purzycki. Specifcally I ask the detractors what are the traits or flaws that would keep him from being a good mayor.In my mind he’s a person of great accomplishment in his life, has a high sense of altruism with values and concerns that are other directed, has a good plan on how to fix the city and the ability to impliment that plan, but most importantly he loves Wilmington. For these reasons as noted in todays news journal, two of the City’s most prominent citizens, Tom and Martha Carper contributed the maximum to his campaign

  52. The Godfather says:

    I’m at a loss as to specifically what the people who post on this site find objectionable about Mike Purzycki as a person or a candidate for mayor. It’s fair to say I know Eugene Young or Kevin Kelly and I think they’d make a great mayor. But when you attempt to promotes their interests by personally denigrating Mr Purzycki without basis. that’s trolling. They somehow suggest that because he appeal to republicans and independents, that’s a negative. While I’m clearly biased, I think Mike Purzycki is heads and shoulders above the rest of the field and has the experience, values, and accomplishment to represent all of the people in the city better than the rest of the field. His involvement in the Hope Commission and the achievement center eventually becoming Chairman demonstrates certainly a broader commitment to all of Wilmington than has been suggested on this site. Further, what is little known, he took a young black child who was in trouble into his home as raised him as if he were his son. Doesn’t sound like Mr. Republican as Mayor Williams likes to refer to Mr. Purzycki. Specifcally what are the traits or flaws that would keep him from being a good mayor.In my mind he’s a person of great accomplishment in his life, has a high sense of altruism with values and concerns that are other directed, has a good plan on how to fix the city and the ability to impliment that plan, but most importantly he loves Wilmington. For these reasons as noted in todays news journal, two of the City’s most prominent citizens, Tom and Martha Carper contributed the maximum to his campaign

  53. anonymous says:

    “Specifcally I ask the detractors what are the traits or flaws that would keep him from being a good mayor.”

    He doesn’t give a fuck about the city beyond the waterfront, and he’s made it clear in every candidate forum I’ve seen reported on. I have know him for 40 years, and if he wanted the job he’d be the best candidate. But he doesn’t want the job, and it’s clear from how he has behaved since entering the race — as if he’s doing us all a favor by deigning to run.

    For whatever reason, the banking community (used to be the business community, but nothing is left but the banks now) doesn’t like Kelley, and from what I can tell they’re serious about leaving the city if Williams gets re-elected. They wanted Purzycki in the office. Let’s see if they can rustle up the votes.

  54. anonymous says:

    @E Gregious: Travel records, please. Why don’t you FOIA her travel schedule and ask her where the money came from?

    It’s been eight years now and nobody yet has been willing to do the legwork on this. Why not you?

  55. The Godfather says:

    Anonymous, Other than you personal insight into his motivation, you make a good case for his election, his ability to attract and keep existing business. With regard to this important function, none of the other candidates are in the same galaxy. Truly if electing Mr Purzycki would keep the banks, lawyers and others from leaving the city, that would be reason enough to vote for him

  56. cassandra m says:

    Ability to attract and keep existing business. Hmmm. Which is why the Riverfront Outlet Shops are going like gangbusters, yes? Or how about the Exhibit Venue that had some amazing exhibits that no one saw? How hard is it to be eventually successful when you have the state, the city and developers throwing money at you?

    Wilmington is filled with neighborhoods and business areas that need some attention. Wilmington needs a Mayor that will work at supporting more of them, not just the Riverfront and Market St. It’s one thing to tear everything down and start over and quite another to create value within an already built environment. Plus I want a Mayor who will work with all of the city, not just the people who voted for him. There’s nothing new here (and he’s plagiarized some of Kevin Kelley’s and Eugene’s plans in his literature), no real vision beyond the sell that all that is needed is a competent manager and the city pretty much runs itself.

    At last night’s debate, he said he hadn’t seen the City’s budget which was astonishing to me. And I think he sais he didn’t know how big the budget was. If I can get a clip of that, I am definitely posting it. But with that is just sounds like we are turning the clock back to 2012.

  57. Mikey P says:

    Milke Purzycki for Mayor! Gentrify Wilmington! Rockford Park and the Riverfront are taking back the city! Screw the rest of you!

  58. anonymous says:

    G: If only that were the case. But that’s not at all what I said. I said he can’t see beyond the Riverfront, which had gobs of state cash thrown its way — mainly because it wasn’t the rest of the city.

    What Cassandra cites is what I mean by him campaigning like he’s doing the rest of us a favor. I started out thinking he was the guy for the time and place. He ruled himself out with me.

    And there’s a big difference between being a guy who can attract and keep businesses — the Riverfront, as Cassandra noted, is no boundless success story — and one who has been hand-picked as a tool of the corporations. You have the causation here backwards.

    They aren’t saying they’ll leave if Kelley or Young gets elected — only Williams. They just like Purzycki better because he already agrees with them about things.

    Purzycki will preserve the parts of the city that suburbanites and professionals visit. The rest of you will be on your own.

  59. The Godfather says:

    Cassandra: There are so many cheap shots in here, I don’t know where to start. Going back 20 years to the riverfront outlets and the exhibit venue!!!!! THe Riverfront under Purzycki is a rousing economic,social and cultural success. Your criticism here makes you look foolish. Your point on he millions of dollars of investment. He was the one who developed the plan and convinced those decision makers to invest those millions of dollars. Conjure up the image of the incredibly inexperienced( in almost every aspect required of the job) Eugene Young convincing those barracuda in the General Assembly to send millions to Wilmington or the guys in the thousand dollar suits not to pull the banking industry and the legal offices out of Wilmington. He’d be eaten alive. It will require protecting existing revenue sources and developing new revenue sources if we’re going to protect those neighborhood you speak of. Incidentally I have heard on at least several occasions, Purzycki speak of one of his highest priorities is to protect the good threatened neighborhoods. I assume he was speaking of neighborhoods like Cool Spring and Trinity.What basis do you have to make the judgement that if elected he’ll only work with the people they voted for him. Just because you say things doesn’t make them them true. My original posting complained about those who attack a candidate to benefit one their supporting. With what you’ve written here you’ve become the poster child for that kind of behavior. Tell us why your candidates has the skills,experience, values and program that make him the best choice for Mayor. I think your problem is that your panicked that Purzycki looks like the likely winner

  60. cassandra m says:

    Purzycki was ED of the Riverfront while it was going through its Outlet Shops and Arts Destination phases. So he gets to own the unsuccessful parts too. And how many other people could screw up like that, keep a job and continue to get money thrown at them by the government and investors? Owners of some of the Justison Landing condos have been struggling with BP to deal with defects in construction, and the old Riverfront shops are far from fully rented. There’s no doubt that there is plenty going on here, but there’s also no doubt that it took awhile and a bunch of money to get there. No one is going to throw money at him like that in the city. No one.

    Eugene Young has worked with people at the GA for a long time. He is with them advocating for fairer criminal justice policies. He certainly has a broader set of policy and good government skills than Purzycki. When the Chamber did their straw poll for Mayor, Eugene came in second. Probably because he connects with the young entrepreneurs in town that both the City and Purzycki ignore. You forget that Young did the work for Cory Booker to connect NJ groups with resources — private and public. He knows how to pull together people in suits to help support community initaitives (and frankly, I’m surprised you don’t see this from the most obvious place).

    Cool Spring and Trinity are places he thinks he can get folks to vote for him. 3 guesses as to why they are a priority for him. But there are more neighborhoods at risk than this and the sheer number of neighborhoods at risk have reduced the value of housing all over the city. The city’s value doesn’t change unless you can get a broader influx of value across the board and so far the only people even talking about that are Eugene and Kelley. So much for experience.

  61. E. Gregious says:

    @anonymous:
    Stewart’s records are in the hands of her opponents. Since they obviously haven’t been publicized yet, maybe they’ll be used if and when she becomes the D candidate for IC. A lot of good they’ll do the other D at that point. Looks like this election won’t be any different from the last two when mostly only true Delaware Way corruptocrats won.

  62. commonsense says:

    Ohhhh, Jennifer, Jennifer, Jennifer.

    I suppose we should be grateful this one’s not a rap song.