SD10 Special Election Predictions
If the last election taught us anything, it is to be wary of predictions. But what kind of political blog would this be if Saturday rolled around and we didn’t post our best guesses on the outcome of Saturday’s MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION SINCE THE LAST ONE (c), special election in SD10?
I’ll get the ball rolling with…
Hansen 52%
Marino 46%
The Other Guy 2%
This is a very timid prediction. Even so, I’m probably giving the other guy too much credit here.
Not knocking your prediction, but is this based on anything?
It looks to me like an above-the-canal vs. a below-the-canal election. One of the criticisms I’ve heard of Hansen’s campaign is that there are next to no locals south of the Canal endorsing her or appearing on campaign lit. It’s all D ‘celebs’, so to speak. Just look at that Newark rally. The good news is that there are more than enough D voters north of the Canal to swing the election Hansen’s way.
The weaknesses for both parties are the candidates themselves. Hansen might as well be Delaware’s version of Hillary Clinton. And even R’s don’t express kind words towards Marino, which is why key campaign officials jumped off his ship.
This will be a proxy on the parties and, I think, the degree of the Trump Revulsion factor.
Since, in a two-way race, Clinton bested Trump 57-43 in SD 10, and since it now looks like the D’s will at least come close to matching R turnout, I have Hansen winning 55%-45%.
As always, it’s all about turnout. By the time the campaigns get their first figures from the polling places, they’ll have a pretty good idea as to who’s going to win.
I was thinking that I should flesh it out. So here it goes:
Dems are fired up, but Republican have always been able to match (or exceed) Dem energy. Particularly GOTV energy during a special. So this is closer than it looks to the naked eye.
While Dems are voting (to some degree) to return the earth to its axis and bring balance to the force, Republicans don’t need such motivations. they only know that it is election day and that a Republican is facing off against a hated liberal. It all tribal with them, 24/7/365 and that makes all elections close.
As for The Other Guy..? Who knows what a third person on the ballot portends? Probably nothing, but I would expect him to get a couple hundred people out.
“Hansen might as well be Delaware’s version of Hillary Clinton. ”
That seems a bit unfair. Other than the fact they are both women, blondes and Hansen isnt as far left as Warren, I really dont see similarities. I have not met HRC, but have met Ms Hansen and she struck me as kind and genuine.
Has anyone heard a full-throated defense of the Coastal Zone from her? Or is it the usual weasel-wording of the centrist Dem crowd?
Well, here she is the week before the election stating that she opposes any gas tax increase. Taking positions that are designed not to ruffle any feathers…or inspire genuine enthusiasm. Both made a lot of money off of their time in political office–once they left political office. And both are successful attorneys whose public statements sound carefully litigated rather than spontaneous. Hopefully, the result in this race will be different than the presidential.
I’m glad you find her inspiring. I see yet another Delaware Way type. Not looking for Elizabeth Warren–but a little more Karen Peterson wouldn’t hurt.
I guess that’s fair. From my pov, i see an equation to HRC as almost a smear. Yeah, she basically won, yes she would have been a better president. But she will forever be remember as the highly qualified, if not very inspiration woman who lost to a walking nutsack. Marino is a walking nutsack, let’s hope Hansen can prevail.
Hansen will win, but shes a lot more John Carney than Karen Peterson…
John Carney sure talks a lot about private-sector jobs for a guy who’s never held one.
I think Hansen wins. I was phone-banking yesterday, and people are ready to get out there on Saturday. I won’t put any numbers on it, but I think that the turnout will be strong.
Considering, based on the News Journal story, they are spending upwards of a million bucks for a Delaware State Senate seat, I suppose she should do quite well.
Want to wager on the dollars spent per vote? Over/under $60. I’ll take the over. (BHL had 16,000 votes when she ran unopposed in a Presidential year.)
That disgusting fact aside. Go vote for Hansen if you live in the 10th.
For all the $$ the media is claiming Hansen’ campaign has spent, Marino’s seemed to me to be more visible. Note to any future campaigns, Yahoo pop-up ads are annoying.
As far as Hansen’s position on the Coastal Zone Act, I see it as irrelevant. Marino basically said during the debate that it would be sacrificed at the altar of Jobs. For anyone that matters to, no matter how lukewarm Hansen is she has to be the better choice.
Can’t believe it, but great editorial in News Journal today about politicians in Delaware leaning on the’ crutch of Task Forces’ and basically doing nothing to address issues like prison issue and budget deficit.
Hansen is no Hillary – Hansen is a mousy Lawyer type. Has she ever been out if state?
Hansen loses 51-49. The tide’s not gone back out yet, even though it is receding. The Libertarian candidate does not cover the spread.
Not necessarily what I’d like it to be, but definitely what I’m seeing.
Ben wins the internet.
I Must have missed ElSoms early comments. I sure hope Dems aren’t ceding southern EDs. Shade of Michigan.
One difference is that Clinton had a phony grassroots campaign. Turned out there weren’t boots on the ground in the Rust Belt, contrary to what we’d been led to believe. There’s a lot of grassroots volunteerism in the Hansen campaign.
But I do worry that the campaign may not have done as much in those southern ED’s as they should have. Stephanie’s still a bit of a cipher to some of those people. And, of course, it wouldn’t be a Rethug campaign w/o a phony ‘whisper down the lane’ meme that ‘Stephanie killed Chris.’ I kid you not. These people are slime.
A large reason for the lack support below the canal is due to the old guard that heads the 9th committee. They are mostly made up of conservative dems who scare away any new blood that challenges them in any way to be more progressive. Hopefully she does well enough above the canal to overcome that
I have no idea how it’s going to go. I’ve been canvassing more or less everyday for the past two weeks and most of the people of talked to seemed pretty fired up, but I’m also worried that I’m just living in my own little liberal bubble. If you were to put a gun to my head, I’d say Stephanie takes it with mid-to-low fifties for the percentage.
gee Guys, I am not sure who is going to win in my town. But I could be wrong didn’t Hillary out spend Trump by huge numbers? So, I would not put to much credence on money alone. The only thing Hansen has going for her is The News Journal never went into her back round. Her stormy record on the County Council ,her connection to corruption and the fact that any voters in the area weren’t living in the state when she last held office. Why Morino hasn’t gone Fter her on this is beyond me. The other thing that will be in play is 75 degree weather on a Saturday will hold down turnout. Remember this Republicans and independents don’t rant and rave, we just vote rain or shine.
“Republicans and independents don’t rant and rave”
No, not at all. It’s not as if entire media empires were created by conservatives ranting and raving.
What’s your bubble made of? Does the Defense Department have anything as hard to penetrate?
And as uninspiring as Hansen might be, why would anyone ever vote for a shitstain like John Marino?
Gerald maynes needs to simply check out the Delawareonline comment section to get a lifetime fill of Republican ranting and ravings. On the topic of this race alone, there seems to have been a troll army unleashed.
I certainly pity anyone who reads that mess, let alone anyone who can be influenced by those nut cases.
For 8 years screaming- He’s a Muslim, He’s a Kenyan, He’s coming for our guns, He hate’s America and worse. You people lack any objectivity, moral compass or any sense of decency. You are truly a basket of deplorables
@mouse: I hear many conservatives claim they didn’t object to the election of Barack Obama or disrespect him — they mean themselves personally, I suppose. They seem to have forgotten all about the nonstop campaign to delegitimatize Obama, who won by more convincing margins than any Republican has since the ’80s.
Somewhere around the end of the Reagan’s second term, Republicans abandoned the strategy of winning a majority of voters to their policy views — that government is the enemy, the best government does the least for people, taxation is theft, etc. They know those positions won’t win, so they sought –and gained — power without getting majority support for their policies.
Now that they have gained that power, they are finding out that the consent of the governed actually means something. What is now being put to the test is the idea that public appeals — the true grassroots kind, not the highly organized lobbying efforts but real people with real health problems confronting conservative ideologues at these town halls — carry power in a republic supposedly devoted to democratic ideals.
The Kansas state legislature, with supermajorities of Republicans, this week overrode Sam Brownback’s veto and reversed some of Brownback’s tax cuts, which failed to live up to any of the promises or projections made by conservative economists.
Their policies are both unpopular and ruinous. That’s why I would prefer to run campaigns based on debunking the popular lies on which conservative policy is built.
Gee Guys, You just proved my point.The press and those in the extreme left have acted like they have had a late inife case if the terrible twos. As to who owns the media in this country, if you look it’s retirement funds. Most of the press is like liberal. If you go back far enough the first anti administration paper, was owned by Tomas Jefferson. Who while a member of the Cabinet, financed a newspaper who was critical of President Washington. Hamilton then established The New York Post in response. Republicans never acted like your party has acted. Then again even after Herbert Hoover defeat was this party in such bad shape as yours is today.Heck the majority of the states,cou ties,Governorships are in Republican hands. You guys only control five states, all of the functions of government. your protesters seem to only happen in the places you already control. proof of that is the ton of money raised from California on a Senate seat in Delaware. you are the Federalist of today. Interestingly enough the last stSte in the country to be controlled by the Federalist Party was Delaware,sending both Senators and a Congressman to Washington, ten years after any other state did. See what you have to look forward to.
We aren’t the “extreme left,” sport. We’re the majority. And we will piss on your grave.
Gerald Maynes’ poor English and inability to put a space after his punctuation make me think he’s a Russian troll.
I think I’m interested in the point Gerald is trying to make, but not interested enough to piece together the meaning inside that tortured history lessons there. Paying attention in fifth-grade English class matters, kids.
He’s probably on his phone. The problem isn’t typing or syntax, it’s his delusion that because he’s read a little history he’s offering us great wisdom. Or that it has any bearing on the crisis before us today.
@Alby “And we will piss on your grave.” You’re REAL classless!
Ah yes,like all liberals, When you can’t deal with facts or logic,or the truth of anything, attack the a person writes. for your information, I am dyslexic. That said I am successful in life,highly educated and have a homelibrary of about 800 books of which I have read. Also, I can debate all of you with out using a single four letter word. judging by the stuff I just read I can’t say that about some of you. I also know that you seem to be bitter people. You may use the kings English better then I do, but I am guessing, I am better read the you are. Also, do you suffer from eye strain looking down your collective noses ,at people you have different views then you do? What a shame I do feel sorry for you. You are missing out on life’s greatest gifts, other people.
I didn’t attack you. In fact, you are the one who took pains to attack liberals. Don’t come in, piss on the rug and then act like we’re the ones who are inhospitable.
You have offered not a single word about Marino, the apparent recipient of your vote. It takes a lot of something — I’m going to guess confusion — to spout slogans and disjointed history lessons and then complain that people aren’t taking you seriously enough to debate.
Liberals don’t owe you anything — consistency, decent treatment, civility, respect. Nothing. You can earn it, but it’s not something you’re owed.
You have made clear that your party is more important than our country. You’re a traitor until you can prove otherwise.
yes, U am opting for Morino. why in the world would I vote for Ms. Hanson? I remember her term as Council President, she was just awful. I am not about to vote for someone who married Chris Roberts,who sold his office to the highest bidder. Her Farther In Law did federal time for selling his office. The county charter was actually changed because if him. So not being a fan of incompetency and corruption and knowing the third party candidate.who is running with the hope to get enough votes from Morino. I have only one choice that’s Morino. Don’t ever question my motives or my honesty. Finally I own 600 books on history and government. Yes I can teach a course on it. If I had my life to live again I believe I would have become a history teacher. It’s funny how liberals always think the other guy just votes for his party and not for the good of the nation. Perhaps it’s the other way around. Did you ever consider it?
sorry fat fingers again.Should betaking enough votes from motion to elect Hanson in a tight race.
Traitor, I don’t have to prove anything to a hysterical nasty little person like you. I know you would never say that to me in person because you wouldn’t have the balls to do it. It is to tough to be a web site Audi Murphy.
You all better hope Hansen loses because were out of ideas to fix this mess.
You voted for a traitor. That makes you a traitor. Deal with it.
Name the time and place you’d like me to say it to your face.
If you check the archives, you’ll find that I said all that stuff about Hansen weeks ago. Her being a poor choice doesn’t make Marino a good one. You know as well as I do that nobody leaves the NYC police force 10 years in of his own volition.
you sir are rediculous. Mr Trump is not a traitor in any way or form. That is a leberal illusion. However a strong case could make a case against Hillary Clinton who sold 15percent of our uranium stock pile to a dummy Company owned by Putin, in return for million 750 thousan.dollar speech made by Bill Clinton to the very same company. The FBI is still investigating her now that the case has been moved from the Brookland federal jurisdiction to the Manhattan Jurisdiction header up by assistant AG Bahada the only Obama appointment held over by Trump. He has put both Democratic and Republican leaders in the NY legislature away for twenty years or more.The Mayor if NY has an appointment with him next week for pay to play. So if you voted for her you must be a traitor so you live with it. Actually, if you need the definition of Treason see the trial of Vice President Aaron Burr one of your boys, the founder of Tamany Hall. He was acquited. By the way The Russians only hacked Hillary’s And The Dems EMails because of their utter lack of common sense and security. You accusations are the reason why your party is in the trouble it is in.
Anytime anybody calls someone a traitor I reflect on the words of a man cleverer than all of us.
“”Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.”
—Dr Johnson, April 1775
Actually you are incorrect on that. I come from a long line of NYPD Policemen on both sides of the family My Uncle was a first grade Detective with Thirty Years on the job. He had over thirty compensations for bravery and died on what was to be the day he was to retire
He died when he walked into a bank to csah his last paycheck. He walked in on a bank robbery. He identified himself as a police officer and died in a shoot out. He received a inspectors funeral. My grand farthers Cousin was Ralph Solano, who ran the organized crime squad and later worked for Robert Kennedy as an Investigator and was a respected expert on the Mafia. He wrote several books on the subject. I have several cousins still on the force and yes their are people who have retired for various medical reasons with ten years of service. Although that has changed some time during the last mayor’s term ,you only needed twenty years to retire.I believe a full pension was changed back to thirty. At ten years he would have only have received a partial pension or half pension. So my friend a little research goes a long way. You may verry well owe him an apology. As for Ms Hanson sorry she will prove to be a complete lemon if she is elected. I know what we will be getting from her and ITIS not good.I don’t know what I will be getting from Mr Morino, but it’s got to be better then Hansen. By the way all pensions in New York are a matter of public record.
Trump’s ties to Russia are easily researched, as far as he will allow without releasing his financial records.
I’m no patriot. But I wouldn’t sell us out to Russia to keep my shabby business “empire” afloat, either.
And your continuous assertion that “my party” is the Democrats shows your confusion. You used to make more sense before your operation. I think the anesthesia never wore off.
With the carpet bombing of mailers I’ve received, it would be difficult for me to imagine any voter in this district who was not aware of the election. It’s a Saturday, not many people will have excuses for not voting. I suspect voter turnout will be higher across the board than people think.
I must say, if the Hansen campaign is outspending Marino by as much as they say she is, she is not getting a lot of bang for the buck. Those Joe Biden commercials on WDEL are a medium rare nothing burger, and I like Joe.
The district went solidly for Clinton in the general. I think it goes solidly for Hansen tomorrow with similar turnout numbers.
I agree about the Biden Ads. Very weak. I think Hansen may be in “don’t make an unforced error” mode.
It’s a pretty solid effort on Hansen’s part. Hopefully, by this time next week, those of us in the 10th will be pressuring her to buck the GOPwannabe governor who hates poor kids.
Even weaker than the Biden radio ads are those TV ads. John Fucking Carney and BHL all over them. At this point, I think they may do more harm than good.
BTW, those TV ads? Proof that they’re just throwing money at anything right now. Probably only 2 to 3% of those viewing the ads could even vote in the Special Election.
Richard Pryor once said, “Cocaine is God’s way of telling you you’re making too much money.” TV ads viewed by non-voters is yet another example of Pryor’s Theory.
Gee, Every time you open your mouth I am more convinced that you can’t handle logic and facts. I told you how you could check if Mr Marino does have a police pension. Your response was to try to insult me. This is why liberals are held with such disdain by most of the country.
Liberals are not distained in most of the country. Where most people live those people are liberal. A fucking terrible presidential candidate received 2 and half million more votes than the President. We are in this situation because of an arcane constitutional scheme that’s nearly 250 years old whereby land/territory count as much as people. Don’t be obtuse.
Speaking of the Constitution, if Obama ran for a third term it would have very likely been a landslide victory. So gloat about Trump. That’s fair enough. But don’t get too cocky, right. Because we’re onto you.
The Electorial college is in place to make sure that large states like California do not run roughshod over the small states. TRenember your party is only dominant in five states and four hundred counties. Do you think that the other 45 would tolerate that? These are the same rules that every President fromWashington to Trump. So stop crying. The founding fathers knew what they were doing , we live in a republic not a democracy.
You really are a glutton for punishment, aren’t you?
Where most universities, good jobs, cultural amenities and educated people reside, people are liberal
That’s not crying. And I know what the Electoral College is and why it is. I have a nice library too.
The reason the other states need to tolerate that is because we pay 2/3 the federal tax and they take 2/3 the benefits. Plus, a much lower percentage of people live there (as noted).
So, one person one vote. I’m not disputing the election result, you understand. I’m arguing that we need to look past the founding fathers fetish. The EC was a negotiated truce to appease slave-holding interests in the south. Big Ag, if you will.
If you think this is soup grapes, that’s good. It’s means you’re shockingly confused.
gee, in five years New York , California and , Illinois, the home if advanced liberalism and education will be sibrike that they will be begging the other 45 States to bail them out We will never find out if Obama would have won a third term. The destruction if the Democratic party took place on his watch.The same broken foreign policy, the same broken health system, the same awful economy that got Trump elected still would have existed. But who knows I am not much for playing in the make believe ball room.
Actually that iis not true. New York city, L.A ., Chicago, Detroit, and Philadelphia take more Federal Money In then they pay out. If California was able to leave the Union, they could not hope to pay all those on Federal assistance and survive.
My thoughts (for what they’re worth) on tomorrow’s election and the respective candidates as posted on my facebook page:
Dear voters in the Senate District 10,
There is a very important special election this Saturday, February 25, at your regular polling locations. I cannot overestimate the importance of this election and your vote to preserve and improve you and your family’s standard of living and quality of life.
I am asking you to vote for Stephanie Hansen tomorrow for the 10th District Senate seat. I’m not asking you to support Stephanie because she’s a Democrat or to preserve a party majority in that chamber. I’m supporting Stephanie and asking for your vote because she has considered the predicaments and challenges that face your families and all of the working people in Delaware and she will work to address those problems.
Stephanie Hansen has personally shown me the willingness and attitude to face the adversities and challenges that we all face today with the ability to address these challenges without any hesitation. Stephanie is not someone who only offers vague promises and empty slogans. I am confident she will work to plan and address the future needs of our state’s economy and the working class in Delaware.
Stephanie’s opponent has almost word for word reiterated the empty and vacuous vagaries that we have heard (and continue to hear) over the last year from political ideologues. There is no place in public service for personalities that only seek power to enable prosperity for themselves and the special interests to which they are beholden. I’m asking you to reject the shallow and callous attitude of the professional ideologue and vote for Stephanie Hansen for your sake and the sake of all Delaware families and businesses.
Polling places will be open from 7:00 am until 8:00 pm.
Representative John Kowalko
Dude, you can go fuck yourself for all I care. I’m not here to debate with assholes who want to divide the world into themselves and Democrats, then debate with the imaginary Democrats they set up.
I’m not interested in a discussion with you. I don’t care what you have to say. I don’t care what you think that says about me or Democrats. I don’t care what you think about me or Democrats or Aaron Burr or anything else.
You can go away or not, your choice, but I’m not interested in a discussion. Life’s too short, and you’re too stupid.