UpDATED: 2008 Very Early Line
I bested Celia Cohen by picking the following legislative “races to watch” back in November – a full 20 months in advance of her “races to watch” feature. (IN YOUR FACE COHEN!)
Anyway – How are my picks holding up? Lets see. (Update comments are in italics)
The 2008 General Election Results:
Senator: Joe Biden (check)
Congressman: Jack Markell (D’oh) [Looks like Castle can hold if the media and the people allow him to continue to run away from his Iraq war record.]
Governor: John Carney (Will lose to Markell in Primary. Markell to win General)
Lt. Governor: Matt Denn (check)
Insurance Commissioner: Some Democrat (check – Gene Reed Jr.. Great by all accounts)
2008 Legislative Races to Watch:
4th Senate Dist: Copeland leaves his seat open in order to have his ass handed to him by Carney. Some Republican wins the open seat. (Republican hold) (Copeland punked out – still an R hold)
17th Senate Dist: Without Vaughn to beat up on – Still’s record makes him the most hated man in Delaware. He is a slimy out of touch grandstanding douche bag and the Kent county Democrats are on a roll thanks to the leadership of Abbey Betts. (Dem Pick-up) (Check – Still is finished this time – if he even makes it to the election. Brian Bushweller to Represent Dover in Leg. Hall Dem pick-up )
14th Senate Dist: Jim Vaughn is done. But the seat is wired for Bruce Ennis. (Dems Hold) (What will happen in the open seat race in the 28th RD? Expect more old school Dem machine politics. Dems Hold)
9th State Rep Dist: If Rebecca Walker decides that she wants it – it is all hers. (Dem Pick-up) Walker is in but needs to step it up. Meanwhile Cathcart has raised hi sgame. (Republican hold)
18th State Rep Dist: Someone is going to announce a surprise retirement a la Roger Roy- it might as well be Spence. (dems pick-up) (check)
19th State Rep Dist: Someone is going to announce a surprise retirement a la Joe DiPinto- it might as well be Gilligan. (dems hold) (check)
20th State Rep Dist: Manolakos is the “Chauncey Gardener” of Legislative hall. He is surprised to even be there. (dem pick-up) (check)
25th State Rep: The R’s will run hard at freshman Kowalko, but to no avail. (dems hold) (Check)
27th State Rep Dist: Jaques strong showing proves that this district is ripe for the Democrats. Lofink retires or is beaten in the general. (dems pick-up) (Check)
31st State Rep Dist: Prameela Kaza decides to go again and makes Nancy Wagner the next Stephanie Ulbrich. (dems Pick-up) (check)
33rd State Rp Dist: The R’s think they should have this one – but Walls is no dummy. He’ll cruise to re-election. (dems hold) (check)
34th State Rep Dist: In a kind of mirror image of the 33rd, the Dems think this is winnable. It is not. (Republicans hold) (check)
Pretty good predictions if I do say so myself.
My dad lived in Spence’s district – all his signage throughout the area lacked any mention of his party affiliation.
Says something, don’t it?
Must be fun to be completely oblivious to anything resembling reality. Is it?
Eat yourself, parrot.
Maybe Sam is disparaging my awesome predictions? Don’t worry Sam – I’ll post them again after the election so you can apologize.
Speaker Spence did a bang up job in 2006. In a tough GOP year, Spence won by a big margin in a 3 to 1 Dem district.
His campaign manager was a democratic Union official.
Smart guy sounds like to me.
Not bad. I think you picked most of the races which will be in play. It is too early to say how they will go.
I would add a challenge to Rep. Short in the 7th.
I don’t agree with your results. Some are leaning in the direction you suggest, but others aren’t. Nancy Wagner will hold on as it stands today. I could tell you the Democrat who could beat her, but you guys will never figure it out and I don’t want you too.
Still, Bushwellier is going to be the race to watch. It is too close to call. As much as you guys hate him some others love him.
33rd will be touch and go. 34th won’t be in play. Ennis would likely win in the 14th Senate.
My dad lived in Spence’s district – all his signage throughout the area lacked any mention of his party affiliation.
Says something, don’t it?
*
Hey VC, when I dropped something off at the good Speaker’s house a few years ago, I was mighty surprised. The dang thing looked the size of a handkerchief and was right, smack under the air transport going and coming from the county airport.
Ask you dad for me if he has ever actually seen Spence in the neighborhood. My impression of his address was that it was almost as valuable as his suit coats.
Bill McCloskey once said: Republican, Democrat, I don’t care. They do what we want, we’ll support them.
Spence, Conner have as much union support on election day, as do Biden and Coons.
To win against those two, you have to divide the union vote. You have to be a great human being and exude enough union support, that the rank and file will cross over and vote for you, all the while publicly supporting your opponent.
It can be done.