Mike Castle one of 20 “hyper-vunerable” Republicans
The swing state project’s “plf515” has crunched the numbers. Bottom line: If Castle gets a decent challenger he is in deep shit.
Finally, let’s put it all into one model. This model worked somewhat better, and identified 20 hyper-vulnerable Republicans.
AL03 AZ01 CT04 DEAL FL10 KY05 MI07 NM01 NV03 NY13 NY23 PA03 PA15 WA08 NJ02
PA06 IA04 MI04 MI06 OH06Who are the most vulnerable, according to the combined model:
Rick Renzi (AZ-01) is the most vulnerable, (snip)Michael Castle (DE-AL). Delaware gave Kerry 53% and Gore 55%. It has a reasonably large Black population (18.9%), and a moderate median income ($47,000).
That’s why, as I’ve mentioned previously, Castle will be running as an ersatz Democrat this time. He will have no Republican talking points. He will have no Republican agenda. The word Republican will never escape from his mouth and the word Republican will never appear on a Castle sign or mail piece. He will say “I am proud to be a Republican.” on the campaign trail exactly the same number of times that he will say “I am a proud to be a fucking ass-wipe.”
In other words the Republican party will be leaderless and that will make it an interesting race with a number of interesting implications for the down ticket races, which I will be blogging more about later.
This is like those studies that prove a bumblebee cannot fly.
I think what the study fails to account for is the protection and cover Castle gets from Carper and Biden. If those guys had ever halfway campaigned for Castle’s opponents, Castle would have been gone long ago.
Biden and Carper’s refusal to support the Dems is likely why quality candidates are not lining up to challenge Castle.
Excellent point. There is a level of collusion that represents a high “barrier to entry” as they say in the business world. Any of a number of big name Democrats could have easily beaten Castle last time had they received the green light from Carper and/or Bidden.
It’s probably illegal to put a “REPUBLICAN” sticker on a campaign sign. But it would be fun to see a Republican candidate filing a complaint about it.
Now that Karen Hartley-Nagle is in the race, Castle has a challenger that is much better than just ‘decent’ . She is an excellent candidate and can definitely win!
lmao
That this “project” thinks that Mike Castle is “hyper-vulnerable” says a lot about the credibility of the group which pushed it.
What is the statement above suppose to tell me? Good or bad credibility?
Or is it Dana’s projection of what he wishes/prays that it is?
Hum….
All I know is that DE is very Democratic, and our stroke-suffering-Bu$hCoTM-enabler has had waning support over the past 6 years.
I think saying Castle is vulnerable is not a stretch….
Castle is essentially “Roth – 2008”
Ditto (4), Sue.
I am laughing at this one.
Carper may support quietly behind the scene Hartley-Nagle and let Castle take a back seat with Castle on his own. It remains to be seen how this will shake out.
It appears Carper may take the true to form Democrat position and Castle will wither.
My opinion is to let Castle stand on his own two feet without the support of the Democrats in Delaware (Carper).
Tom Carper is not breaking up with Mike Castle. He simply is not.
Anyone running should know that and go into it with their eyes open.
Karen Hartley-Nagle? Of all the improbable nonsense “progressives” endorse, this is the topper. Earth to KHN supporters: The Democrats will eventually find an official sacrificial lamb in the Spivack mold, will campaign behind him or her tepidly, and Castle will win another term. KHN will be doomed in the primary, because the party will turn out tens of thousands of reliable votes in their effort to enthrone Carney. She won’t get 10% in the primary.
Bill Roth over again? Nice try, but Castle doesn’t drink himself into a stupor and is a decade younger than Roth was when he fell to Carper.