Super Tuesday Prediction Thread
1) McCain closes the door on Romney. With the “winner take all” nature of the Republican primaries it does not matter if Romney loses by a little or a lot. It is over after tomorrow for the Republicans.
2) Obama to lose by a little. And that would be a big win for him. Because of proportional distribution of the Democratic delegates means that he will have all of the rest of February to pick up steam. Those of you who think Obama can close it out tomorrow are mistaken. It would have to be a total blow out for Clinton to quit. The Dem nomination might get settled at the convention. Check this out from Matt Stoller:
I’m on a conference call with Mark Penn and Howard Wolfson of the Clinton campaign, and they are emphasizing how this contest is going to go beyond Tuesday, and may go until the convention. Wolfson is discussing party rules and proportional representation, and says that these rules have trumped the intended front-loading of the primaries to pick a nominee early on. – via Atrios
3) Obama to win big in Delaware.
If those predictions come true, I’ll be a happy camper.
Atrios made me uncomfortable today, talking about superdelegates. He says that a full 20% of the nomination process is determined by superdelegates and that the public will revolt if they pick the ‘wrong’ Senator.
I guess I’ll have to read up on the superdelegates.
My prediction is that Obama will win the media narrative battle for he will convincingly win California, Missouri, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Delaware, all of which are considered tossup states or former “Clinton-favored” states.
From what I read Romney has opened a bigger lead in CA, so I’m wondering if McCain will finish him off tomorrow.
I also think Obama will win DE.
Nancy –
I was wondering about the superdelegate thing. I wonder if Biden is still in play (ero the Biden talk-up) while I know Castle is 150% for Clinton.
If Delaware goes big for Obama I like that it slaps Carper in his stupid face.
For Democrats in Delaware Obama….will win.
If I were Howard Dean (and we do have primal scream therapy in common), on Wednesday, I’d have a ‘come to Jesus’ meeting with the Democratic leadership in Mich. and Fla. I would insist that there be a do-over real primary in each state, negotiate the dates, and determine who will pay for it.
That would eliminate any possibility of trying to steal those delegates through legal action or parliamentary skulduggery at the Convention.
It really looks like those states could matter and, rather than disenfranchise them, it would be the big d and little d democratic thing to do.
Now that is thinking “outside the box” you must have some corporate training sessions under your belt.
I like the idea. Except for the fact that rewards (rather than punishes) them for the apostasy.
Steve, sounds like a plan. One thing, if my party dues are going to pay for another election I’d prefer the “secondary” be open only to Democrats.
Actually, that is a good idea. Michigan and Florida Dems wanted to make their primaries count, and that is why they moved it up. If Hillary and Barack are close, and the FL and MI delegates can make the difference, then yes, reschedule the primaries and make all three organizations (DNC, FL Democrats and MI Democrats) pay the cost.
Expect the Clinton camp–which pretty much controls the rules organizations–to block any attempt at MI or FL “do-overs.” Hillary already has plans to challenge for seating of those delegations, and that may well be the make-break issue of the convention.
Watch the composition of the credentials committee of the convention like a hawk; it should be published in about 6-8 weeks. Whoever has the majority there (and I’m betting reluctantly on Clinton) will control those delegates.
That’s why I think Dean should act NOW. If the Clinton camp opposes real primaries in those states, it will really hurt them in the post-Super Tuesday states b/c they will have been flushed out as trying to steal the nomination, which I think will mobilize even more people to stop them. And I believe the only way the D’s can lose this presidential election is if the nomination appears to have been stolen.
It will not hurt the Clinton “brand” to be seen as stealing the nomination.
Everyone knows all about how the Clinton’s operate.