Republicans Are Stupid And Nobody Likes Them
So says the Cook Political Report.
(T)he gap between the numbers of Americans who identify themselves as Democrats and Republicans has widened considerably, and the Republicans are facing an increasingly large deficit. Each year, the Gallup Organization aggregates all their national political polling, resulting in massive sample sizes: in 2006 alone, they surveyed 30,655 voters. When voters were asked whether they consider themselves Democrats, Republicans or independents (with the sequence rotated), Democrats had a 34.3 percent to 30.4 percent advantage, the widest lead for either party since 1999.
But when those who initially chose independent were asked which party they leaned toward–a statistic called ‘leaned party identification’–the Democratic advantage ballooned out to 10.2 points, 50.4 percent to 40.2 percent. This advantage is the widest recorded since Gallup began tracking leaned party identification and the first time that a party has reached 50 percent on leaned identification.
I have an idea for the DE GOP, Ronald Reagan Day! That should fix everything. But seriously folks…read on to see how Mr. Cook thinks this is going to effect our favorite Bush lover, Mike Castle
Voting in the 2004 presidential election showed just how important party identification can be. Democratic Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts won the vote of 89 percent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents, and Bush carried 93 percent of the Republicans and GOP leaners. Even among white voters, the GOP edge was just 2 points among party members, 3 points with leaners pushed.
Then there is enthusiasm.
In a presidential election year, it’s a decent bet that Republicans, no matter how demoralized, will turn out in numbers in line with past election years. When the GOP presidential race was still actively contested, Republican turnout was solid and in some cases reached record highs. The danger for the GOP is if there is an extraordinarily high Democratic turnout in the general.
It’s not hard to imagine that Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., could match the national and state-by-state vote totals Bush received in 2004, or that the Democratic nominee, either Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois or Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, might pick up a substantially higher vote count than Kerry did four years ago.
Might? Is it any wonder the GOP is praying for Clinton?
The turnout figures in Democratic primaries and enthusiasm levels in national polls certainly suggest that could be the case, and it would obviously have a detrimental effect on GOP candidates downballot.
Tee hee…
Even if there isn’t a disproportionate Democratic turnout, Republicans would need to win over virtually all of the pure independents, quite a chore considering they broke Democratic in 2006. If the turnout trends seen in the primaries continue, that wouldn’t even be enough.
[Cue Announcer with scary voice & creeking door sound effect] Mike Castle….I see you Mike Castle….I’m looking at you right now Mike Castle…..That’s right….As you read this I am standing right behind you….
BOO!
Made ya FLINCH.
Strangely, Jason, you didn’t quote the part of the post that shows McCain currently winning the independent vote against either Obama or Clinton:
“Don’t miss our latest Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll, conducted March 6-9, among 802 registered voters. In the poll, presumptive Republican nominee John McCain led Sen. Barack Obama by 2 percentage points, 45 percent to 43 percent and McCain led Sen. Hilary Clinton by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent. In a head-to-head match-up with McCain, the poll showed Clinton winning 80 percent of the Democratic vote but losing independents by 7 points. Obama pulled 78 percent of the Democratic support and lost independents by 8 points. McCain won 91 percent of the Republican vote against Clinton and 86 percent against Obama. ”
Wonder why not?
You also seemed to ignore that the Dems only have a 4 point lead in the generic ballot for Congress.
McCain’s lead now will evaporate. Americans have strong & intractable feelings about voting for someone in his 70s.
Americans are just as unlikely to vote for someone who is a Muslim for Prez as they are someone in his 70s.
48% won’t vote for an old fart when they enter the polling booth in November:
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/24/in-november-will-age-matter/index.html
That’s a negative rating that even exceeds Hillary’s.
Wait until the debates and then we will see how America feels. But I have to agree with Dana. That the perception of most Americans and their desire for something new will make this a D year all around.
McCain’s getting a free ride while the Dems fight over the nomination. He better rest up, all that energy is about to turn his way.
And for every one cook report, I can show you 10 polls showing this:
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0565259320080306
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-obama-280-mccain-258/
In the words of that great 13-year-old philosopher girl – Whatever!?!
I got this in my e-mail and thought I should share it…I wish I could post the corresponding pictures you guys would get a kick out of it:
When der Fuehrer says, “We ist der master race”
We HEIL! (phhht!) HEIL! (phhht!) Right in der Fuehrer’s face
Not to love Der Fuehrer is a great disgrace
So we HEIL! (phhht!) HEIL! (phhht!) Right in der Fuehrer’s face
When Herr Cheney says, “We own der world und we own der outerspace”
We HEIL! (phhht!) HEIL! (phhht!) Right in Herr Cheney’s face
When Herr Rumsfeld says they’ll never bomb this place
We HEIL! (phhht!) HEIL! (phhht!) Right in Herr Rumsfeld’s face
Are we not the supermen
American pure supermen
Ja we ist der supermen
Super-duper supermen.
Ist this Nutzi land not good?
Would you leave it if you could?
Ja this Nutzi land is good!
Vee would leave it if we could
We bring the world to order
Heil Bush’s new world order
Everyone of foreign race will love der Fuehrer’s face
When we bring to der world disorder
When der Fuehrer says, “We ist der master race”
We HEIL! (phhht!) HEIL! (phhht!) Right in der Fuehrer’s face
When Der Fuehrer says, “We ist der master race”
We HEIL! (phhht!) HEIL! (phhht!) Right in der Fuhrer’s face
When der Fuehrer says, we never will be slaves
We heil! Heil! But still we work like slaves.
While der Fuehrer brags and lies and rants and raves
We heil! Heil! And work into our graves.
A song of thanks to the GOP by the world’s greatest philosopher Donald Duck in 1943 from all your friends in the democratic party.
The loss of Denny Hastert’s seat in IL ought to be calling card for the November elections. In this WaPo article we find this nugget:
“It’s no mystery,” said Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.). “You have a very unhappy electorate, which is no surprise, with oil at $108 a barrel, stocks down a few thousand points, a war in Iraq with no end in sight and a president who is still very, very unpopular. He’s just killed the Republican brand.”
The killing (or maybe the pretty serious damaging) of the brand is likely true, but BushCo has alot of help to do that. As a result, the repubs are not only having recruitment problems, but also money problems (notwithstanding their own auditor stealing from them).
Cassandra- Not to mention the fact that they reject new ideas faster then McDonalds serves hamburgers.
I seem to remember rather a few Americans voting for another 70 year old in the early 80’s. In fact I think he was elected twice and the second time was a landslide.
Was it the second or first election when the Alzheimer’s had kicked in full force?
Nothing wrong with honoring a former president with a meaningless day, but the language of the Reagan Day bill is patently offensive. It says something about Reagan restoring accountability and common sense to government.
Accountability from Mr. “I-can’t-recall” if I approved weapons for Iran. Common sense from the guy who promised to cut taxes, increase defense spending, and balance the budget.
The nation is still damaged by Reagan’s lack of accountability and common sense. We are in the midst of a financial meltdown caused by Reaganesque de-regulatory principles. It would be insulting to pass the Reagan bill with the current language.
McCain isn’t doing himself any favors. McCain just went to Iraq arm-in-arm with Cheney and promised to stay “until al-Qaida is defeated.”
Or until Treasury checks to Halliburton start bouncing, whichever comes first.
Oh, and tagging along were weasels Lieberman and Lindsey Graham.
Grab those AP photos of that bunch while they’re hot; they will come in useful during the campaign.