So says the Cook Political Report.
(T)he gap between the numbers of Americans who identify themselves as Democrats and Republicans has widened considerably, and the Republicans are facing an increasingly large deficit. Each year, the Gallup Organization aggregates all their national political polling, resulting in massive sample sizes: in 2006 alone, they surveyed 30,655 voters. When voters were asked whether they consider themselves Democrats, Republicans or independents (with the sequence rotated), Democrats had a 34.3 percent to 30.4 percent advantage, the widest lead for either party since 1999.
But when those who initially chose independent were asked which party they leaned toward–a statistic called ‘leaned party identification’–the Democratic advantage ballooned out to 10.2 points, 50.4 percent to 40.2 percent. This advantage is the widest recorded since Gallup began tracking leaned party identification and the first time that a party has reached 50 percent on leaned identification.
I have an idea for the DE GOP, Ronald Reagan Day! That should fix everything. But seriously folks…read on to see how Mr. Cook thinks this is going to effect our favorite Bush lover, Mike Castle
Voting in the 2004 presidential election showed just how important party identification can be. Democratic Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts won the vote of 89 percent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents, and Bush carried 93 percent of the Republicans and GOP leaners. Even among white voters, the GOP edge was just 2 points among party members, 3 points with leaners pushed.
Then there is enthusiasm.
In a presidential election year, it’s a decent bet that Republicans, no matter how demoralized, will turn out in numbers in line with past election years. When the GOP presidential race was still actively contested, Republican turnout was solid and in some cases reached record highs. The danger for the GOP is if there is an extraordinarily high Democratic turnout in the general.
It’s not hard to imagine that Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., could match the national and state-by-state vote totals Bush received in 2004, or that the Democratic nominee, either Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois or Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, might pick up a substantially higher vote count than Kerry did four years ago.
Might? Is it any wonder the GOP is praying for Clinton?
The turnout figures in Democratic primaries and enthusiasm levels in national polls certainly suggest that could be the case, and it would obviously have a detrimental effect on GOP candidates downballot.
Tee hee…
Even if there isn’t a disproportionate Democratic turnout, Republicans would need to win over virtually all of the pure independents, quite a chore considering they broke Democratic in 2006. If the turnout trends seen in the primaries continue, that wouldn’t even be enough.
[Cue Announcer with scary voice & creeking door sound effect] Mike Castle….I see you Mike Castle….I’m looking at you right now Mike Castle…..That’s right….As you read this I am standing right behind you….
BOO!
Made ya FLINCH.