Who Wants to Be a Republican?
This article in today’s NJ documents the increasing weakness of the DE Republican party, noting the serious shift in voter registration from R to D this year. It seems that much of the reasons for the shift are a perception of more excitement on the D side (both for President and Governor) and certainly some R fatigue.
On a national level, Rs are facing having to recruit for, fund and execute congressional campaigns for close to 30 Representatives this year. There is an intriguing new Pew Poll that analyzes the current trends in party ID. From this, Ds are showing real advantages in swing states and while D identification in red states is fairly stable, there is a small decrease in the number of people who identify as Rs. Overall though, the D base is not increasing, but the R base is decreasing — indicative of the increasing structural challenge for Rs this cycle.
It is certainly true that some of the shift to Ds can be attributed to the fact that they simply aren’t Rs, I would expect that some of that change is due to Howard Dean’s 50 state strategy, which tried to ensure that there are D candidates everywhere, providing voters with more exposure to a D message. Bill Foster picking up Denny Hastert’s old seat definitely shows that in an R-leaning district, taking advantage of the structural changes in both the R base and in Is can result in not just a run for the money, but a spectacular pickup.
There are those who think that there is something dishonest or unjust about the an electorate that is willing to vote for someone for just not being George Bush (or one of his familiars). We do need to remember, though, that the Rs worked up their now receding majorities based on national messages (Contract with America) and almost lockstep support of and reiteration of the messages generated to ensure that Rs everyplace put on their happy face re: current national government policies. This strategy almost fatally damaged the Governor of CA until he endured a sweeping loss on a number of state initiatives based on Bush-era conservative ideology. His decision to jettison absolute adherence to his current party’s ideological positions in favor of a more moderate approach that may actually get some governing done is Exhibit A here. If you are asking folks to identify with you with a narrative that depends on national issues, then you should not be too surprised when that connection becomes a liability.
And given that there’s a concerted effort by a group of official Rs to detach the Bush Legacy from the history of conservatives (probably the same folks who were talking up as the next Truman sometime back), it seems Rs know that all too well.