Early Primary Over/Under Betting Lines
Here is what the bookies are taking bets on right now. Please note that the totals for any given race don’t equal 100% because each outcome is an independent bet. [E.g. I’d bet $1.00 that Karen Hartley-Nagle gets more than 58% in the primary.]
As with any betting line, if there is too much money flowing to one outcome the lines will be adjusted accordingly so that the bookies make money regardless of the outcome.
US Senate (Republicans)
Christine O’Donnell the over/under is 63%
Tim Smith the over/under is 30%
US Congress (Democrats)
Karen Hartley-Nagle the over/under is 58%
Mike Miller the over/under is 33%
Jerry Northington the over/under is 15%
Governor (Democrats)
John Carney the over/under is 51%
Jack Markell the over/under is 51%
Governor (Republicans)
Bill Lee the over/under is 52%
Mike Protack the over/under is 45%
Lieutenant Governor (Democrats)
Matt Denn the over/under is 55%
Ted Blunt the over/under is 45%
Lieutenant Governor (Republicans)
Charles LaMont DuPont VonCopeland the over/under is 90%
Eric Buckson the over/under is 9%
Insurance commissioner (Democrats)
Gene Reed Jr. the over/under is 45%
Karen W. Stewart the over/under is 25%
Tom Savage the over/under is 25%
Insurance Commissioner (Republicans)
John Brady the over/under is 97%
Only wager what you can afford to lose.
I’ll take the under on both the listed LG candidates for my immortal soul.
http://delawareliberal.net//2008/04/25/copeland-files-to-run-for-lieutenant-governor/
Oops my bad. I guess Copeland entering the race didn;t make a big impression on me.
Fixed.
Can I bet that both John Carney and Jack Markell get 51%?
Can I bet my entire life savings on the over for Bill Lee?
Most of the Dem calls are pretty close. I think I’ll go out on a limb for the GOP State Primaries with, “I don’t care and neither does anyone else.”
FSP –
That would be a hedge bet and it is perfectly fine. The “expected value” of that bet would be $0.00
As for you 401k, I guess project “underestimate Protack” is on.
Editor:
Is there really a ‘von’ in Senator Copeland’s name? I thought he might have a numeral after his name (i.e. III).
I would bet a dollar that Hartley-Nagle gets in excess of 65%,
Protack will be the GOP nominee to face either Carney or Markell in November.
Christine O’Donnell will beat Tim Smith to face Biden.
Charlie Copeland will beat Eric Buckson to face Ted Blunt or Matt Denn.
Nitpicker you git me. There is no “von.” Also, I think it is Lammot – not Lamont.
I’m not sure about the III , but as I’ve done some research it is clear that part of Copeland’s problem is that he is the product of 5 generations of 1st cousin inbreeding.
Be careful about inbreeding criticisms. We are in Delaware you know.
I take Tim Smith on the spread. He is making all of the right moves.