Check out Politics by the numbers (mostly delaware) by John Tobin, a very smart guy who has forgotten more about Delaware politics than I’ll ever know. His blog takes a “just the facts” approach and will be leaving the rumor mongery to people like me.
The purpose of this blog is took look at numbers that have an impact on politics. Some of these items are election results, campaign finance information, polling data and whatever numbers seem relevant.
The focus will mostly be Delaware, but numbers from other areas and national numbers may also be the focus.
Numbers in politics represent behavior, so the numbers may tells us something about how some people may be behaving. Of course the numbers will always be open to interpretation.
He is off to a flying start…
In his first post he crunches the numbers and concludes that the hated Harris McDowell probably would have retained his seat even if Potter had a clean head to head match-up in the last 1st SD primary.
If the same 2984 people voted and all the people who voted for someone other than McDowell voted for Potter, Potter would have won 1507-1477. To do this Potter would need to win all 255 nonMcDowell voters in the 4th & 6th Rep districts, voters in an area where McDowell beat Potter 971-359. If McDowell wins only 31 of those 255 voters (12% or 1 out of 8 voters) and turnout stays the same, McDowell wins. (snip)
It is possible that without Carroll and Hendrix the 18% gap between McDowell and Potter may have been larger.
It is possible that in a two way race Potter might have won,but he would need to have either massively energized turnout in the 1st or made massive inroads in the 4th & 6th Districts.
Read the whole thing. Bookmark the site and visit frequently.