Why The Long Primary is Good for Obama
Take a look at this article over at HuffPost about the benefits of this long primary for Obama. It does warm my heart.
This new engagement in the Democratic contest is a bonanza for our prospects this fall. In Indiana, the combined Democratic primary turnout was 129% of the total voter that John Kerry got in the general election in 2004. That is unheard of.
I feel better already.
Tags: 2008 Presidential
Again it comes back to the math.
I think is still comes down to whether or not Clinton and he numbskull followers decide to destroy the Democratic party to satisfy Clinton’s vanity.
When it is all said and done, most Clinton supporters will support Obama. The ones that don’t are like the die-hard Deaniacs who swore they’d vote Green Party in 2004. Shortly after June 3 we’ll largely be OK. The only way everything is at risk is if she decides to go on to the convention.
yes it is the math just like golf it’s about the numbers
you Yell Four score Six and record Five
The best explanation of the Clinton Math I’ve ever seen, TT.
If you believe it all comes down to the math, you’ll want to bookmark http://www.fivethirtyeight.com and visit it frequently.
Jason, if you want to feel even better, read this story, which I was talking about on-air today:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/black-youth-and-latino-turnout-and.html
This is why Hillary supporters are wrong about the math — they’re using old numbers. If Obama keeps bringing new people into the process as well as he has during the primary season, the Republicans are in big trouble. Though this article doesn’t go into the implications beyond the presidency, Republicans should be worried (and administration officials should be looking for estates in Paraguay).
I been thinking things over and I believe the best thing for the party is to take it to the convention for a floor fight you know like the old days with many roll call votes and maybe a deadlock and then a surprise out of shear desperation they take a final vote and declare The person with the most experience the winner and that is none other than Senator Joseph Biden.
Very interesting article Al. I do feel better.
BTW – Did you notice that WV and KY are dark red under every single scenerio?
And yet Clinton supporters think those states are the key to a Democratic victory in the fall.
As encouraging as those numbers are, and I DO think that there will be a significant increase in African American voters and youth voters, I would also be interested to see how any depression in white voters, particularly white evangelical voters, would impact the election as well.
I think, and this is w/o the benefit of statistical analysis, that the white evangelical voters who were the hallmark of both Bush victories, are not going to turn out in the same numbers as they did in 2000 and ’04.
I believe this b/c (a)McCain does not attract them as Bush did, (b) Bush policies have hurt them, particularly those in the lower-income brackets, and (c) many in the evangelical movement are looking to move away from the political arena as their principal engine for change.
So, as promising as those 538 numbers appear, I would also like to see if my idea could be tested, and how would that impact the elections. I certainly think it could well push Ohio to the D’s and, since that’s the state that determined the ’04 race, it would be game/set/match.
I think Cassandra had a link on evangelical voters, especially younger evangelicals, turning towards Obama. Cass, do you remember where you found that article?
Hillary staying in no matter what.
This adds up.
She is out to destroy that Democratic party. Why? Who knows.
This is the article, I think, Pandora: Young evangelicals leaving GOP over Iraq and economy
Evidently Randi Rhodes is saying that Clinton is going to follow suit a la Lieberman and make an Independent bid if she can’t get her way.
What should we do it that happens?
I don’t know, Jason. She has to have money to stay in until August. Throwing good money after bad is BushCo behavior, and I wonder how many of the small donors will keep contributing. Certainly the larger donors will get the clue.
Superdelegates declaring now en masse ends it and does not let her end it which I guess is that they are waiting for. If anyone knows the dangers of letting this wait til the convention it is the Superdelegates — some of them will be campaigning this summer and will need to be declared to move on.
Look the party hacks will deside this race isn’t that a shame they have to let it go at least until june 3rd if not all hell would break loose remember the party hacks and the pledge delegates votes are not counted until the convention so she could take it to the floor for a fight and also some one could put her name forward for the second spot and that would really upset the apple cart. Even though they are party hacks they are not stupid they will allow this thing to play out and that is the course that will help unite the party all this other talk of fourcing her out will do is increase the divison
Party hacks were always going to decide and NO ONE is forcing her out.
And please tell me how taking this to the convention will help unite the party?
Because when folks get a chance to vent their differences in a mature way they will come to the conclusion that the real enemy here is the Repub party. So all those who have this country’s interest will understand that we don’t need 8 more years of Bush.
We should all remember weather we are Obama or Hillary supporters that there is no Victory in November for either of us saying I told you so after the election, the only way to avoid this is to Unite
and remember Boos and Jeers from either side does not advance our cause
Because when folks get a chance to vent their differences in a mature way they will come to the conclusion that the real enemy here is the Repub party.
Nonsense.
The real enemy is Hillary Clinton. She has lost, and is out to damage Barack Obama as much as possible at this point.
Isn’t Ralph Nader running on the Independent ticket? Hillary wants something better….Supreme Court, Gov of NY, a plum! Thats how it really works.
But, she will have to campaign her little heart out for Obama and get those older women and those white males, the West Virginians, Kentuckians to support Obama. I wouldnt count on that working, so every state better do a bunch of voter registration to overcome the loss.
Jason now it’s my turn get your head out of your ASS
Also obama is showing just how wet behind the ears he is letting a senile old man suck him into a debate on Iran rather than obama sucking The Senile old man on a debate on vets rights the price of gas and all the other things Bush has fucked up
It was interesting the Obama got the WH to start backtracking on that Iran business so I think he won that conversation.
Yes Cassandra they have backed track a bit but forgin Policy is McCain’s strong suit and you know the Repub’s always accuse the Dem’s on being soft on the subject of National defence so why play on their field get McCain to play on ours Question are you better off today then you were 8 years ago. The price of a barrel of oil today hit $132 the day we invaded Iraq it was $24 have McCain defend this and other facts that effect the people who work for a living and convince them not to vote against their own interest like they have in the past
TT: What’s the matter, you don’t trust the American people enough to know what to do on Iran. There is no “their field” in this election, unless Obama gets sucked into debating Rev. Wright. Iran, just like any legitimate issue you care to name, is a loser for the GOP.
Whereas the approach you suggest — “are you better off” — is a glossy but shallow economic question that truly has very little to do with presidential choices.
It was interesting the Obama got the WH to start backtracking on that Iran business so I think he won that conversation.
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yup~! And Irsrael is now in negotiations with Syria. And on and on.
The politics of engagement may yet settle the middle east down a bit.
If we extract ourselves from Iraq sooner than later, even though there won’t be an excuse for oil futures to keep rising, (heh), Obama’s vision can realize a more peaceful world.
Note: this is not a hallucinatory personality cultist speaking here. I like Obama’s vision. This is not some version of idol worshiping bull. It is a matter of the ecomony.
How can we get back on track with the ‘great sucking sound’ of 1) cash outlay for this war and 2) the continued unrest in the mideast is a part of why the price of oil is skyrocketing.
Your disclaimer made me giggle.
Note: this is not a hallucinatory personality cultist speaking here.
Everyone is a bit on edge these days.