Nomination Hostage Crisis
Pineview Farm linked here and to Balloon Juice which lays out the case that Clinton’s modus operandi is now, “If I don’t get the nomination I am going to blow shit up!”
So it occurred to me that the way Obama is handling this hostage crisis is a window into how he is going to react to whatever terrorists act or hostage crisis arise when he is President.
And so, based on his performance dealing with wild-eyed power-mad terrorists Hillary Clinton, how will Obama react?
Here, I’ll drive you guys crazy again.
Clinton just picked up North Carolina (yep, one of those SOUTHERN states) and now leads McCain in a head to head matchup 310 to 211 with MO, MS, OK, Colo, SC also now in play (but not counted in her total)
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May22.html
Poor Obama. The liberals LOVE him. But in the state by state matchup, well, hmmmm, he’s getting his butt kicked. Against McCain in a head to head….he still loses, 285 to 242. Anyone noticed that big red blob in the south if Obama runs?
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May22.html
Huh? Is someone talking?
I thought I heard the desperate whine of a bunny with his foot caught in a snare.
This fight over Florida and Michigan can be settled real fast . That is if Howard Dean shows some leadership which he hasn’t so far.On May 31st just seat both states delegates nothing changes Obama still leads in the pledged ones and Hillary gets a Victory for being their champion.No matter what happens the process is tainted because THE PARTY HACKS get to pick the winner.
ANNO2 where did you pick up that info????
A new round of Quinnipiac polls shows Clinton to perform better against McCain in the battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In Florida, it’s Clinton 48%, McCain 41%; McCain 45%, Obama 41%. In Ohio, it’s Clinton 48%, McCain 41%; McCain 44%, Obama 40%. And in Pennsylvania, it’s Clinton 50%, McCain 37%; Obama 46%, McCain 40%.
TT asks: ANNO2 where did you pick up that info????
I would GUESS that the links anon2 posted might be a hint. 🙂
Hillary a champion? Sorta like… I was for disenfranchising FL and MI before I was against it?
Another perspective: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/election2008/story/38057.html
To me, it’s all about getting a dem in the WH. I just don’t see how the electoral college math is going to add up for Obama to beat McCain. It’s almost impossible to make it work for him.
Here’s your challenge for the day. Be realistic. Be cautious. Get Obama to 270. Show me the states. Leave FLA and OH out. He’s not going to win them. You can have PA, but it’s not a lock. But I’m generous today. Want to REALLY prove he can win? Leave PA out and show me the states he’s GOING to win!
For the nth time, those head to head polls that you use to masterbate with are not valid becuase they are currently tracking a three way race.
Call me the moment Clinton quits and we’ll look at the map.
When Obama loses, what’s the liberals excuse going to be? Hillary or racism? Let’s see, elitism, mocking Hillary’s supporters then having the gall to think they’re going to vote for you. LOL.
When McCain loses, what’s the conservative excuse going to be?
George Bush.
When McCain loses, what’s the conservative excuse going to be?
That’s too easy Al – “He wasn’t conservative enough.”
That map ain’t gonna change much after Hillary leaves the race. The electoral college map is a tough sell. If you’re so certain he can win, why not show the states he’s going to win?
According to Al Giordano, the current Clinton play is for the VP slot, even with a possible convention floor fight over the VP nomination.
That seems to be why Obama’s team is leaking this stuff re: VP selection — to be pretty clear that he will be making his own choice and will evidently try to get it done early. And good for him — Clintonian politics needs to die a definitive death.
Annon2 It always gets me how willing some folks are able to believe the polls when they show their man in the lead and to dismiss them when he’s behind. I checked out your site and found it very knowledgeable I believe that the strongest ticket to win with would be a Clinton Obama, not only does this one make sence but would more than likely result in Dem’s control of the White House for 16 years.It would also remove the question of Obama’s lack of experience since he would have served as VP for 8 years.
As I have stated before it does neither of us any good to say I TOLD YOU SO after November
Obama to win VA
Suck it losers!
Damn, Jason! I just found that article! I defer to your swiftness.
The problem with TT and anon2 is that they’re still relying on the old model. Just like warning Obama not to engage McCain on Iraq and Iran. By doing that they are buying into the meme that McCain is stronger on these issues.
And wasn’t this Obama supporter’s point from the beginning… that Hillary’s greatest weakness was her Iraq vote? that she wouldn’t be able to argue effectively against a war that she voted for?
No way should Obama back away from one of the top issues in this election. Do not cede any point to McCain.
Question Can Obama carry all thoses States he won in the primaries??????
With all the new voters Obama is bringing in this could be a landslide year for Demcorats.
The GOP brand is in the gutter and aside from the slim hope that Clitnon will blow shit up, they have nothing. That is why the GOP concern trolls like anon2 are working like mad to support Clinton – their party is looking at 40 years in the wilderness if Obama wins.
Oh wait, do those voters not count?
Geesh, he doesn’t have to carry all those states. It’s a primary. Each state has delegates at stake, hence the delegate race. But, maybe, we can say that red state dem primaries/caucuses shouldn’t count toward the nomination. Did you even look at Jason’s link? Please do.
Hillary relies on the old map, and maybe she has a point since it’s served Dems so well in the last two presidential election. How’d that turn out for ya?
One more thing — Chris Bowers is keeping his own Electoral Math.
And do be sure to review it ALL — he provides links to his state by state poll data (where it exists) and provides a good summary of his methodology here. It will be a month or two before individual state polls start getting updated or even occur with a better frequency (the Delaware one was last done in late Feb). This map and this data provides plenty of opportunity to suss out the pathways to the winning electoral math for Obama and this map looks pretty good to me.
For the nth time, those head to head polls that you use to masterbate with are not valid becuase they are currently tracking a three way race.
Why does Clinton crush McCain in this polling and Obama get crushed? It would seem under your “theory” that both Dems would lose.
That is why the GOP concern trolls like anon2 are working like mad to support Clinton.
I’m no republican and no troll. I’ll leave it at that. I believe she would win and I believe that obama will lose.
The problem with TT and anon2 is that they’re still relying on the old model.
Here’s the deal. Clinton wins FLA, PA and Ohio. That’s 68 electoral college votes and puts here well over 300. Obama loses them and is stuck around 240. (you can add WVA into this group too)
That forces Obama into the South. I’m not saying he can’t win, but it will be tough. Frankly, I like his chances in VA. There are good dems in the state. BUT, it’s gone 14 straight elections for Republicans in presidential elections.
LIKE I’VE BEEN SAYING ON YOUR BLOG. If this doesn’t concern you, well, in the words of Joe Biden, you’re delusional.
From CNN Ticker: A new series of Quinnipiac polls out of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania appear to bolster Hillary Clinton’s argument that she is better positioned than Barack Obama to beat John McCain in the crucial swing states.
According to the polls released Thursday, Hillary Clinton would beat John McCain in all three states by wide margins while Barack Obama would lose to the Arizona senator in Ohio and Florida and narrowly beat McCain in Pennsylvania.
CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said the poll could be a “early-warning sign” for Democrats, though cautioned early polls often are not predictive.
Specifically, the poll found Clinton tops McCain in Florida by 7 points (48 percent to 41 percent), in Ohio by 7 points (48 percent to 41 percent) and in Pennsylvania by 13 percent (50 percent to 37 percent).
Meanwhile the poll finds McCain would beat Obama by 4 points in Florida (45-41 percent) and by 4 points in Ohio (44 percent to 40 percent). Obama beats McCain in Pennsylvania, but by a narrower margin than Clinton does — he beats McCain by 6 points there, 46 percent to 40 percent.
According to Quinnipiac, the difference between Clinton and Obama’s performances in the state can be traced to the fact that several Clinton supporters and white working class voters there say they will support McCain over Obama if the Illinois senator is the party’s nominee. (Related: Can Obama win over the working class)
“This could be an early-warning sign for the Democrats, particularly since Obama did not do well in the Pennsylvania and Ohio primaries,” Holland said. “On the other hand, any poll conducted in May — particularly when the primaries have not finished — may have little predictive value.”
The last presidential candidate to win the White House without winning two of the three largest swing states was John F. Kennedy in 1960. (Kennedy won Pennsylvania that year, but lost Ohio and Florida.)
But the 2008 electoral map could look different than most recent elections, both the McCain and Obama campaigns have said. Each candidate has shown to strongly appeal to independent and moderate voters — meaning more states could be up for grabs this year than has been the case in past elections.
So.
Quinnipiac polls (with a MOE ranging from 2.4 to 2.6) showing Obama trailing McCain by 4 points in 2 states is somehow bad news? This guy has closed that kind of gap in the space of 24 hours in the past. Once he is the nominee, you can certainly expect a bump up for Obama in all of these states and probably enuf to wipe out the MOE.
What is wrong with you people today?
Cass, does Quinnipiac ‘s MOE factor in all those people who tell pollsters they’d vote for Obama, but secretly wouldn’t because they’re uncomfortable voting for a black guy? I’m not talking about the good ol’ boys with the rebel flag stickers on their pickup trucks, but rather the “typical white people” like Obama’s grandmother. That’s been floated by a lot of analysts as the reason why Obama consistently polls higher than the eventual vote count.
Oh, and if I were one of these Clinton Democrats, I think I’d be more likely to support Obama in the general election if he picked Edwards as a veep.
G Rex, I think that all of the polling outfits try to accommodate social desirability bias as best as they can, but that is a very difficult thing to do. In the end, the “Bradley Effect” (which is what you are describing) is very difficult — statistically speaking — to really assign since no one has really looked at this except in an ancedotal manner. There are occasions of the Bradley effect and the reverse Bradley effect that pollsters have found plenty of reasons why they were wrong and they don’t have anything to do with racial bias (and there is some idea that the race of the interviewer can also influence polling results).
ANNON2 the follow up of your comments just goes to the heart of my early posting that when the polls support your man they are hailed as great and when they show your guy behind you either dismiss them or you talk about margin of error. However, the fact remains that at this moment she is the person that can assure the White House for the Dem’s. So if the party Hacks fulfill their roll then at this point in time they should be supporting her
Cassandra I noticed that with the margin of error you subtracted them from the point spread that the OLD MAN has over Obama couldn’t it also be added to the Old Man’s number ?????????????????
Whatever. And, for the record, I don’t quote polls. Anon2 asked to see the Obama map, we merely supplied The Map.
And what is up with all the question marks on your posts??????????????????????????
to get the question anwered a highlite
I think what you’re seeing here is a hint of the Clinton strategy: Play for a Democratic loss in November, then offer themselves yet again as the saviors of the party.
Just might work Al
No way. She’s done.