Delaware’s Game Changing Turnout
Every Presidential election year is a high turnout year, with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket it is safe to assume that this is going to be a VERY high turnout election.
What does that mean for Delaware? It could very well mean that Vince Lofink, Nancy Wagner, Terry Spence and Dick Cathcart will be looking for new jobs this December.
If you dare…
In the 27th Earl Jacques came within 128 votes of upsetting Vince Lofink in 2006 . Jacques seems more visible this year and is raising some money. I interviewed Earl last year and he seems like a nice guy. I ‘m not sure what issues he plans to raise this time, but he has a real registration edge.
DEM REP ALL OTHERS TOTAL
6,158 4,256 3,355 13,769
A 1900 voter registration disadvantage, a more aggressive campaign from Jaques, and a high presidential year turnout makes Lofink the most endangered Republican in the house.
Nancy Wagner the 31st in is also on the outs. She has been dogged big time in the media for the make work job she created for her hubby and the Dems have a registration edge of over 2000 voters.
Democrats Republicans Others Total
5,707 3,647 2,927 12,281
Pramela Kazza softened Wagner up for Darryl Scott, ( http://www.darrylscott.org/ ) but he looks pretty good. School board member, active in a lot of community stuff. After doing the spade work against Wagner, Kazza was flat out screwed by the Kent County Dems, but has shown a lot of class in letting Scott take out Wagner. This is another Dem pick-up.
Mike Barbieri is the next most likely Dem freshman. Again, this is a Democratic district with a lot of new arrivals. Although Terry Spence is as popular with organized labor as any Democrats in Dover, Barbieri is set to be this years John Kolwalko. He is been working hard on this since 2005 and the Obama turnout could put him over the top.
Rebecca Walker could pick off Dick Cathcart (9th) because of the registration edge, but with Cathcart’s leadership position he be able to raise a ton of money and carpet bomb final month mailings. A good measure of how much heat Cashcart is feeling will be whether he goes negative early. (Since I’m in the 9th I’ll let everyone know if Dick is using the picture of himself awkwardly looking into a storm drain with a constituent (his usual pic) or has updated the mailer.)
can’t we talk about more important stuff?
I don’t think much is more important than this because it affects us more directly than anything else. The sad part is the author is more correct than not. It would be sad because the Democrats in the state senate and Governor Minner have proven why we need a two party state. The Republicans in Washington blew it when they had the power and the Democrats in Delaware aren’t any better. I hope people will remember this when they vote. The good part is that these representatives appeal across party lines.
I expect them all to have to work harder than they have in a long time, but the end result will be a larger more stable coalition for them.
El Somnambulo believes that you’re overlooking another major pick-up in Kent County as door-knocking obsessivo Brad Bennett looks like a winner vs. globetrotting Donna Stone. Try to keep that one under your sombrero…
Great post, more like this please.
You threw me a bone in here, didn’t you? 🙂
Your are right about Bennett. Stone could be above Spence on the list of most endangered.
Smitty –
Is that you peering into that storm drain?
Yup…we were concerned about you, a constituent, when you broke your promise to your wife last year. It was the RD9 search party, all two of us.
Yes the post didn’t mention Donna “Strine’s Ass Tastes Like Cherries!” Stone, or Pam “McDowell’s Ass Tastes Like Daniello’s Mouth!” Thornburg.
Pam “McDowell’s Ass Tastes Like Daniello’s Mouth!” Thornburg I’ll have to research a bit.
“McDowell’s Ass Tastes Like Daniello’s Mouth!”
Wow, the way some people talk….
I met Thornnurg’s opponent Trey Paradee at a dinner last week — seems like a real solid candidate with a real stake in the community. Thornburg ain’t the brightest bulb in the box, so I’m guessing any competition is good competition.
He ought to ask her about her connections to Dover Downs. I hear they paid for a nice trip to Miami for Pammy and her mommy a couple years back.
Yes I have met Brad Bennett when he came to my house door knocking. He is very sharp and knows the issues. I just cant take Donna Stones fake smiles anymore. Bennett is definately going to beat her. The only reason Donna has stayed in office so long is because the lobbyist paid her pockets.
Hey Jason, I would place my money on Bennett if I were you..