The 62 District Strategy, Part I
Back in November of last year on Daily Delaware, I wrote about the 62 District Strategy. Like our presidential nominee, I completely stole that phrase from Howard Dean and modified it. As someone famous once said, half of life is just showing up. And in politics, it is three-fourths. Thus, it is maddening whenever we fail as Democrats to contest a district seat. Why would we ever want to allow a Republican to run unopposed anywhere? For it is essentially giving them a free pass.
Well, the obvious answers are 1) campaigns cost money and require a significant committment from the candidate; and 2) some districts are drawn so hopelessly Republican that it is hard to even find viable candidates in the district to run. Valid reasons, yes, but it still angers me when I see a district devoid of a Democratic challenger, for I feel as if democracy is denied the citizens of that district, and our better Democratic ideas will go unheard.
So, how are we doing in regards to the 62 District Strategy? Well, first, let’s look at the job in front of us in the Senate. There are 10 Senate races this year. We Democrats control the Senate by 5 votes, 13 to 8.
Senate (Republican-held seats in Red, Democratic seats in Blue)
Open Seat (4th-Greenville, Fairfax, Hockessin) (Copeland is running for Lt. Gov.)
Liane M. Sorenson (6th-Newark)
Open Seat (10th-Glasgow) (Amick is retiring)
Colin R. J. Bonini (16th-Dover South)
Open Seat (17th-Dover North) (Still is retiring)
F. Gary Simpson (18th-Milford, Lewes)
Anthony DeLuca (11th-Christina)
Margaret Rose Henry (2nd-Wilmington East)
Robert Marshall (3rd-Wilmington West)
Robert Venables (21st-Laurel)
None of our seats are competitive. Indeed, some may be unopposed, for the Republicans did not oppose Sens. Henry, Marshall or DeLuca in 2004, while Sen. Venables defeated Republican Rep. Daniel Short, 60% to 40%.
Therefore, in the Senate, we are playing offense in protecting our majority. The Republicans have no hope of picking up seats. However, it would appear that we are not challenging for Charlie Copeland’s seat once again, like we did in 2004. This year, we have three Republicans vying for the seat in the primary: Rich Abbott, John Clatworthy, and Michael Fleming. I am not sure why we are ceding this district, for the registration numbers are not as ominous as you might think for Greenville and Hockessin. As of June 1, there are 30,989 voters in the 4th Senatorial District, 34% of whom are registered Democrats, 42% Republicans, and 24% other. Sure, the GOP has the advantage, but it is not insurmountable. Hell, if I still lived there, I would run.
The good news is that we are challenging Liane Sorenson, whose 6th Senatorial District is definitely trending Democratic (D 38; R 35; O 27). The problem is that we have two Democratic candidates in the primary: John Mackenzie and Mike Terranova.
In the 10th Senatorial District, with Amick retiring, we have Rep. Bethany Hall-Long running while the Republicans have yet to find a candidate. Thus, at this moment, we are guaranteed a pickup. It was a close election in 2004, with Amick being reeelected with only 55% of the vote. WIth registration numbers in the Democrats’ favor, if the Republicans do contest this race, I would still say the district now leans Democratic.
In the 16th, we have former Secretary of Labor Harold Stafford challenging Sen. Bonini. The registration numbers in this district are nearly equal, and Bonini was reelected in 2004 with 69% of the vote. We got a good challenger, and hopefully this race will be competitive.
In the 17th, we have Sen. Still retiring. In 2004, he was barely reelected with 51% of the vote. This district is the most Democratic of all the Republican held seats up this year. Forty-five percent of the registered voters in the 17th are Democrats. We have in our corner former Public Safety Secretary Brian Bushweller, and the GOP has former Dover Mayor Jim “Hutch” Hutchinson.
I have not heard if we have a candidate in the 18th to challenge Senator Simpson. So, with respect to the 62nd District Strategy, out of 6 GOP seats up for election, it appears we will fail to field a candidate in one district, maybe 2. Good, not great.
Tomorrow, I will talk about the House.
That’s what I’m talkin’ ’bout. Welcome, DD.
That 4th SD is vexing. Hockessin would seem to have a decent population of well off liberals.
Welcome DD.
As you are pointing out, Delaware politics is basically devoid of the tooth and claw partisan struggles that mark Federal contests. Most of our candiates on both sides run with no party identification on their literature.
I don’t know why those seats are unopposed:
Lack of qualified candidates?
Lack of campaign money?
Unwilling to give up their day jobs?
Secret agreements to maintain safe seats?
All of the above?
Welcome to the Delaware Way and the Incumbency Party.
It seems that if the Senate is largely safe, then perhaps this is a decent (if not too late) time to go for a More and Better Democrats strategy. Upgrade some seats and shake up the Delaware Way while we’re at it…..
If you prefer, let us work together and take the groups that have abolished the free system of english law in our republic down. So that Delaware is not only the first state, but the first state of liberty.
Let us work to repeal Real ID and its offspring. For when enacted in this state I will hold them in words not worth saying in public discourse. We ought to be and are of right free and independent!
We are fit to be free people!
The question should be not are you a democrat or republican, but will you protect the liberty of our people? Will you protect the equal rights of the people? Will you declare our independence again?
A leetle toucan told the Somnambulant One that it is likely that Los Democratos will have a candidate in the 4th SD and that it will be a credible candidate.
With all due respect, I don’t consider any of the 4 Democrats up for re-election worth voting for. Venables is a crooked old dinosaur, Marshall is one of the stupidest people in the General Assembly (and his seat should probably be held by an African-American instead of a half-wit political legacy), DeLuca is a union thug and Henry is a barely-engaged tool.
None is even close to what anyone here would call “progressive.”
Sorry if I don’t celebrate with you.
I really wish Al would speak his mind. It’s so hard to read between the lines. 🙂
I would agree Al. And we need to either retire them and replace them with progressives. We can’t do it this cycle, but we can in 2012.
More Democrats, and Better Democrats.
“The problem is that we have two Democratic candidates in the primary: John Mackenzie and Mike Terranova. ”
Why is that a problem and not an opportunity to draw more attention to the winning Dem in the district?
I’m hearing rumors that the GOPers are recruting someone to run against Kowlako. The GOPers HATE Kowalko w/ a virulent passion. He has the nasty habit of advocacy for the middle & lower classes. Look at what the GOPers did to Kowalko’s bills, how they stole his ideas, how he gave them ideas for legislation and they never credited him for it. They don’t merely want his seat; they want to be rid of him.
I still haven’t learned the person’s name.
OK, DD, I can get behind that slogan. The party has a long way to go on progressive issues, IMO, but the trends are undeniable, and this year a tsunami will roar through, with Republicans as the hapless hut-dwellers.
Not to jump the gun on tomorrow’s post, but I just saw that Aaron Chaffinch is running as a Dem for Ben Ewing’s seat. Because, I suppose, we never have enough ex-state police brass — a real hotbed of progressive thought — in the General Assembly.
I will personally campaign for John Kowalko if he asks me to.
“Look at what the GOPers did to Kowalko’s bills, how they stole his ideas, how he gave them ideas for legislation and they never credited him for it. They don’t merely want his seat; they want to be rid of him.”
Then where would they get their ideas?
True enough. Primaries are good, as we saw with Clinton v. Obama and are seeing with Markell v. Carney.
But, there can be a point when primaries are bad. As I stated, in these down ballot races, it is tough enough to raise money and gain traction when running against an incumbent like Sorenson without having to raise more money to fight a primary. And with Delaware’s insanely close primary date to the general election, there is even less time to concentrate on the general election.
“They don’t merely want his seat; they want to be rid of him.”
They want to murder him?
I will personally campaign for Kowalko even if he doesn’t ask me to.
DD: You might have to give me some pointers. In my years at TNJ, I wasn’t allowed so much as a bumper sticker on my car.
Question: I know Hutch is very popular in Dover; hell, they made up the mayor’s job for him because he was such a swell guy. How much of the district’s population includes the city?
Kowalko is a breath of fresh air! Count me in! I will willingly campaign for him.
Al, bumper stickers are great for name recognition, but getting your hands in at the campaign headquarters is great. This hard-core group can direct your talents where needed.
When I volunteer for Obama I always begin at the headquarters. Where I end up… is where I’m needed.
Pointers on campaigning for Kowalko?
Well, I would start by emailing him or calling him.
I can get you that information.
I know Still’s district includes Wyoming and Camden too, and parts of Dover. Let me find a map….
Don’t worry, DD, I talk to him several times a week. It was more of a flippant comment than a serious request.
Pandora, I have no interest in getting involved to that extent; it would compromise my job too much, and conversely I would never be trusted by any party (my point about the bumper sticker was that most newspapers will not allow you to express political leanings even through bumper stickers and yard signs; I had to get express permission to serve on a church committee).
Dana’s point might not go far enough: Kowalko is hated by not just members of the GOP, but some colleagues in his own party as well. He will need all the help we can give him.
So then, Al, what are you able to do? How involved can you get?
Whatever Kowalko needs me to do, I’ll do — endorsement, speeches, whatever. It’s not about the party, it’s about the man. He has been extraordinarily effective for a freshman legislator, especially considering the treatment he got from the majority party in the House. He has made mistakes, and had enough integrity to acknowledge some of them. I don’t agree with him on every issue, but I admire that he set his agenda himself rather than acting as a water-carrier for the party or other interests.
Compare this with the way Diana McWilliams, in her first year in office in 2005, instantly knuckled under to a DuPont delaying tactic on its dioxin-tainted waste pile in her district. That’s the usual freshman bullcrap — carry water for the party and its special interest backers (in general, DuPont gets what it wants from both parties) to prove you’ll be a “team player.” Or, worse, someone like Melanie George having a district carved out just for her as a reward for serving the party and having a public-teat-sucking ex-pol father. That’s what we usually get.
And, not to put too fine a point on this, I think it has something to do with Kowalko’s previous work with ACORN, which gave him the insight to know what he would be up against as a legislator. The difference between him and McWilliams is an example of what I mean when I say someone without such experience will be slaughtered like a babe in the woods.
Million $ Question:
After this past discussion with Bluewater Wind, is it worth putting up someone against DeLuca?
His next term is good for 6 more years, most of which he will be the President Pro Tempore.
Actually, his term is good for 4 years, until 2012. Those Senators who are up for reelection in 2010 will only serve 2 year terms so that all 21 Senators are up for reelection or election in 2012 to allow for redistricting after the decennial census.
But yes, DeLuca has earned some good will. We will see if he keeps it up through to 2012.
When did Mckenzie enter the race for the 6th SD? I knew that Sorenson had an opponent, but did not know she had two. I knew about Terra nova–who is Mckenzie?
Hell, I should run against Bobby Marshall. I have no interest in running for politics, but I do despise Marshall.
I got a lit drop from McKenzie this week with a personal note attached. I really, really like his platform and his resume. (google his name to get his web site). I don’t know anything about Terranova.
I will be doing profiles on all our candidates this summer.
Mike Terranova knocked on my door today and as a life long residence of Newark, DE. he explained to me his views on education (Red Clay/Christiana), land development, and traffic congestion. He was right on target! Finally, we have somebody who understands our communities concerns (Terranova08.com).