We need a 2 seat gain in the House to win back the majority. With the stakes so high, you hate to see us Democrats failing to contest various districts, thus giving a free pass to the election of a Republican. Why do we hate to see that? Because it allows the GOP to save all their money and volunteers and campaign staff and pour them into the competitive House races, and thus effectively defend their bare majority. If we contest them everywhere, they have less resources to fight us off.
As of this writing, it appears we will not challenge 11! Republicans this year. This is up from 8 Republicans that we failed to challenge in 2006. The unopposed so far are:
Gregory Lavelle (11th)
Deborah Hudson (12th)
Nick Manolakos (20th)
Pamela Maier (21st)
Joe Miro (22nd)
William Oberle, Jr. (24th)
William Outten (30th)
Don Blakely (34th)
George Carey (36th)
Gerald W. Hocker (38th)
Clifford G. Lee (40th)
There is still time to get candidates to run them. The filing deadline is July 25, 2008. But the truth of the matter is this: if we don’t candidates ready and waiting to run against these incumbents, then it is unlikely an unknown and un-financed late filer is going to be able to knock off an well known well financed incumbent in a high turnout Presidential year. Thus, even if we do get challengers to these 11, we have to consider all of them safe at this point.
The good news is that we have more unopposed, and thus, Democrats this year. They are:
Dennis Williams (1st)
Hazel Plant (2nd)
Helene Keeley (3rd)
Melanie George Marshall (5th)
Diana McWilliams (6th)
Quinn Johnson (8th )
John Mitchell (13th)
Peter Schwartzkopf (14th)
Valerie Longhurst (15th)
James Johnson (16th)
Michael Mulrooney (17th)
Robert F. Gilligan (19th)
Terry Schooley (23rd)
John Viola (26th)
So in terms of competitive advantage, the Republicans have none this cycle, as more of their seats are competitive and possible turnovers:
Competitive Races
The 4th. Gerry Brady defeated Gary Linarducci in an open race in 2006 by 10 points. This year, Gerald Brady is being challenged by my favorite Republican, Tyler Nixon. Indeed, I once attended a fundraiser for Tyler, and even donated money to his campaign for Lt. Governor years ago. Too bad that this district is too Democratic and Brady too liked for this race to really become competitive. But I promise you, Tyler, you will be the only Republican I profile this year.
The 7th. Bryon Short won this seat in a special election to replace Wayne Smith, 53% to 47%. This is a Republican seat that the GOP will want back, and Jim Bowers is back for a rematch. But Brandywine has been trending blue.
The 9th. Majority Leader Cathcart got a real challenge from lawyer/nurse Rebecca Walker in 2006, escaping with the victory 53% to 47%. Walker is back for the rematch, looking to make up 600 votes to oust the Majority Leader.
The 10th. Bob Valihura usually has easy elections. He beat Fran Murphy in 2006, 56% to 43%. But, as with the 7th, Democrats’ registration numbers are increasing, and former Congressional candidate Dennis E. Williams (not the Dennis Williams of the 1st District) is challenging him.
The 18th. Speaker Spence won reelection in 2006 over Michael Barbieri 56% to 44%. That is a close margin when you consider Spence’s lengthy tenure and his position as the state leader of the Republican Party. Barbieri is back, and with this district’s demographics, this will be competitive.
The 25th. In 2006, this was the surprise upset, with John Kowalko defeating Stephanie Ulbrich 52% to 48%. Will the Republicans fight to retake it? So far, no. Nobody has filed yet. I expect that to change.
The 27th. Vince LoFink barely held on in 2006, scraping by Earl Jaques 51% to 49%. So this race was going to be competitive again if the name LoFink did not appear in the news at all in any negative way for the last two years. Unfortunately, it does not help matters when your son tries to defraud your constituents of millions of dollars. The interesting thing is that, Earl Jacques has refilled for the rematch, and so has independent candidate James Spencer. No filings from the senior LoFink though.
The 28th. Bill Carson won the special election over Christine Malec back in December. Carson won handily. Will Malec want a rematch?
The 29th. We did not challenge Pam Thornburg in 2006. But with the demographics trending our way, and with the party enthusiastic, we have Trey Paradee stepping into the fire.
The 31st. Nancy Wagner had a surprisingly close reelection in 2006. And with the district becoming even more Democratic, and with the Wagner family enriching themselves at the public’s expense, this race will be competitive. [Daryl Scott http://www.darrylscott.org/] will be our standard bearer.
The 32nd. Commenter El Somnambulo has it on good authority that Ms. Stone will not be running for reelection. The speculation is that after her tenure as the President of the National Conference of State Legislature this past term, she may want to parlay that into a nice lobbying job payoff. Our challenger is Brad Bennett, the son of the former Representative. This is a Democratic leaning district, and would be a good pickup opportunity.
The 33rd. I say, the Republicans really scored a surprise last election, what with running a long dead Civil War hero and former President as their candidate. It was truly amazing that Robert Walls defeated the long dead Grant, albeit by 1%, 50.6% to 49.4%. This year, the Republicans have former Levy Court member Jack Peterman as their candidate, who lost in the 2006 GOP primary to President Grant.
The 35th. Ben Ewing is retiring, for he has been diagnosed with lung and kidney cancer. Out thoughts are with Mr. Ewing and his family as he fights this disease. Former state police Superintendent Col. L. Aaron Chaffinch, who resigned three years ago amid a flurry of lawsuits against the agency, is running as the Democrat. Republican Sussex County Register of Wills David L. Wilson has been endorsed by Ewing to be his successor. Since some are not happy that yet another former police officer could be headed to Dover, be happy to know that Chaffinch may receive a primary contest, with Sussex County Council President Finley B. Jones considering a run.
The 37th. We didn’t challenge Booth in 2006. But Helen Truitt of Lewes has decided to contest this even split district.
The 39th. Jerry Semper is running against Daniel Short. Short received nearly 69% of the vote in 2006. Will Semper do any better.
The 41st. Ugh. The one seat where I hope a Republican wins. Drunken liar John Atkins, once a Republican, has decided to run as a Democrat. No word if the 41st Committee has found anyone else to run. Maybe I should have my father run. At least he has run for office as a Democrat before, and he lives in the district.
So in terms of the 62 District Strategy in 2008, we failed. But in so failing, we did not screw ourselves, because 1) the Republicans failed more; and 2) more of their seats, including the Speaker’s and the Majority Leader’s, are competitive.