BIDEN DAY: Announcement (Not) Imminent
Within the last few hours I’ve spoken with two of the finalists for the role of Barack Obama’s running-mate, and to two other sources who are close to the process.
My bottom line is this: Barring a big surprise or last-minute change of heart, the choice is likely to be Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee.
He is a lively and feisty if unpredictable campaigner with working-class roots and a street-level feel for the hot spots of the globe — which he can use to go toe-to-toe with Sen. John McCain.
“If I had to bet my life on it, I’d bet it is Joe,” said one of the other contenders.
Said another, “Barack is moving toward a seasoned Beltway type, and that probably means Biden.”
Today has been excurciating. We have known that Biden is the pick for over 24 hours now, and the only suspense left is when the announcement will come. I am waiting for that text message. I am going to need a beer after work today, so if the announcement comes between 5 and 7, someone else will have to break the news here.
UPDATE: CNN IS REPORTING THAT THE ANNOUNCEMENT WILL COME IN A FEW HOURS.
UPDATE 2: Mark Halperin has updated his own teaser story this morning, which originally read that “Bo knows…the pick.” NOW IT SAYS “BEAU knows ….the pick.” HA!
UPDATE 3: Al Mascitti is reporting that the announcement will be made Friday evening (???). He says this news just came over the wires. This news goes against everything heard in the last few days, and it goes against conventional wisdom. Why would you announce a VP on a Friday or a weekend? It makes sense to do a joint appearance in Springfield, Illinois on a Saturday, but it is better sense to announce it before hand so that it actually gets covered in the news. So that you own a few news cycles more than you would otherwise. So a Friday night announcement makes no sense, and may indeed be yet another head fake to get us all off the scent for a few hours, since the buzz was building very loudly today everywhere.
My bet is tomorrow still.
Sorry … but … do you really think the Obama campaign would let the media cover Biden as if he has already been chosen all the while staying silent if he was the VP ?
Think about it ? Every blog and newsmedia are covering this as if it was a done deal. We know how the Obama campaign works … Why would they lessen the impact of the pick by letting it hang if it turns out the media is right ?
Why wait ?
I am telling you the pick will be someone surprising or fairly surprising. I am rooting for a certainy Governor of KS and her being picked would certainly fit the pattern with which the Obama campaign is handling this.
I am not saying she is. But I am quite convinced it is not Biden.
“He is a lively and feisty if unpredictable campaigner with working-class roots ” – wasnt he elected at like age 26? what working class roots does he have? and does this mean beau will be out of the ag in january?
Someone close to Biden said the same thing to me yesterday.
arthur,
The entire Delaware political chess board will be flung into the air the second Biden is picked (if he is pickewd).
Art–
He was elected at the age of 29, inaugurated at 30.
His roots are growing up in a working class family from Scranton. That is the definition of roots. Roots is not defined as doing things yourself when you are an adult.
Ben..
A part of me agrees with you. But then I hear from very reliable sources that it is simply not the case.
If it is not Biden, I will be fooled, and so will all the country.
I have come to conclude that Obama is not going for surprise with his VP, he is going for reassurance. McCain will try to surprise, but he will fail miserably.
DD — Stop talking about it or you’ll ruin the surprise: McCain-HRC ’08.
hahaha, if that happens I will buy you a beer.
Let me be clear. There is NO WAY anybody you talk to know what is going on.
Period.
I know there are lots of people willing to talk and lots of people who THINK it makes the more sense.
But it is quite obvious the people who know have never hinted or leaked anything.
So if you are relying on “sources” for your confidence, I would advice you to step back a bit because if there is something I know, it is that these rumors do not come from the Obama people and nobody else knows.
Read Fineman’s piece. His sources are “other contenders”. How do these contenders know ? They don’t. They only surmise he is the one that makes more sense.
Remember … remember … Those who know don’t speak. It is all people being “logical” and assuming
I pray to God Joe Biden gets the nod!
Oh and Dem, my point is not that Obama would pick a surprising pick per se.
But that if you want the maximum effect, you don’t let the unsurprising pick be discussed in advance.
Even a logical pick should not be spoiled.
And remember that no VP pick for the past twenty years had been rumored to be the one in the days before the reveal. I doubt the most disciplined of the campaigns in those twenty years would be the one that would break that rule.
By the way, this was in today’s Philly Daily News. It looks like the Messiah is at it again.
“We’re not going to pay for votes or pay for turnout,” Obama said before the Pennsylvania primary.
But Brady said that the campaign has promised street money to pump up turnout in November. And now that Obama is the official nominee, his campaign will team up with the city’s Democratic ward leaders, who traditionally help get out votes.
Paying money to ward leaders and other supporters represents exactly the kind of transactional politics Obama has run against. His primary campaigns were fueled on Internet-based fundraising and on grassroots organizing rather than on traditional political relationships.”
He is a flip-flopping, hypocrite douche bag just like the bottom-feeders of this website. No wonder you love him so much.
http://www.philly.com/dailynews/local/20080819_Obama_to_pony_up_street_money_in_November.html
Hey Bundy, fuck you.
One more clue.
Apparently he will declare the VP saturday in Springfield IL and then go on a tour of Iowa and Wisconsin.
That would mean the VP pick is probably a MidWesternern.
Which leans towards Bayh (but I would be surprised and tremendously upset) or my own favorite/half-hearted prediction Kathleen Sebelius
BUNDY
Grow up street money is a part of America’s voting system. However it appears that from past experience that the Repuks take theirs after they are elected. If this wasn’t so why are so many of them indited or in jail????
No, Ben.
Springfield is a stop on the Obama roots tour that will take him from Virginia and North Carolina to Denver.
Springfield is important because it is where Obama launched his presidential campaign back in 2007, and it is where he spent most of his political career.
Bundy – It’s just another flip-flop for Obama. Nothing new.
no, DelawareDem.
Obama goes to NC and VA tomorrow and Thursday.
He reserved Springfield for Saturday.
You are assuming he is picking tomorrow.
I am predicting he is picking Saturday because, as you say, it is such a symbolic place for him I don’t see why he would plan an event there unless it was important.
And Ben Smith reports he then goes to Iowa and Wisconsin.
Don’t feed the trolls. Bundy qualifies.
Well, it ought to be interesting since Biden and McCain go back a LONG way and have had a very personal friendship. They both have dirt on each other that would frizz both their heads of hair…Watch out for the fireworks. McCain now can’t pick a dud like Ridge or Pawlenty. He’s gotta go with someone who can out LOUD MOUTH/BLOWHARD Biden…
McCain/Gingrich
Please make it so…
HA!
I want to see Lieberman picked just so I can watch the GOP destroy itself before my very eyes.
Did you hear Rush tlaking about the potential for mcCain/Ridge ?
I cant wait !
No, but I read the transcript. LOL.
It just came across the wire that the choice will be announced Friday evening.
I rest my case.
God, I hope Jason survives the next few days. I swear the boy is going to pop at any moment.
I asked this before, but the thread died: Once you get outside of Delaware, just how well would selecting Senator Biden be received?
My guess is that he’d be regarded as a “safe” pick, appropriately liberal, though not regarded as a wild-eyed kook. But he’d also be regarded as a vanilla pick — pun not intended — who has run two unsuccessful presidential campaigns and really adds nothing to the ticket. (I’m guessing that Mr Obama isn’t worried about Delaware’s three electoral votes.)
Biden would be the assuring “safe” pick. He is widely respected everywhere I have been. He is seen as a foreign policy and judiciary expert.
I think Obama will surprise everyone! He was talking with Colin Powell! Powell who now realizes the Bush/Cheney regime gave him bad intell and made him a scapegoat is supporting Obama and don’t be surprised if that surprise is not Powell, he can then tell all he knows about the fake intell, the fake war, and the fake Georgia/Russian debacle “blown out” on distortions. Who doesn’t know that one billion given to Georgia would be spent on US arms manufacturers. We have to turn our backs on neo con repukes and neo con blue dogs like Biden, and Bayh. No progressives in the lot. Ray McGovern just wrote a letter to Powell to “come clean and cleanse his soul”. Obama is not going to pick “corporate media’s pick”. We gotta hope for a great surprise that will bring moderates, liberals, progressives and Reagun dems to the democrat ticket. Powell could do that. If not Powell, I’m sticking with Caine (VA).
McGovern, Paul Craig Roberts, Palast and many more are stating the opposite on Russia/Georgia….Georgia invaded first. Russia is holding hearings that Georgia’s president has committed war crimes.
From reading attentively every blog, the trial balloons of Kaine and Bayh have made Biden look much better in comparison and most people would be appropriately satisfied with the pic, if not enthused.
Even generally outposkenly liberal bloggers such as Atrios expressed mild satisfaction.
That said, Kos said this morning that while he was better than Kaine and Bayh, he was still really not what he would have wanted for a VP and is REALLY mad at the credit card bill thing.
But that’s of course assuming Obama does not surprise you and goes with the liberal pick – Sebelius
Liz.
Two black men on a single ticket ? Yeah RIGHT
Ben–
Markos is a friend of mine. I know him personally. And Markos does not get to choose Obama’s VP. Sometime he gets full of himself, like when he said he wasn’t donating money to the Obama’s after the FISA compromise.
I just cannot imagine, after this huge trial balloon this week, after the possible pick of Biden is met warmly in the “beltway” and in the heartland, and even the netroots are satisfied; after all the talk is about how Obama needs this foreign policy heavyweight on the ticket……that he will go with Sebelius.
Remember, the Obama campaign is feeding the buzz behind the scenes. Yes, they don’t leak info, but they do feed info to get the stories they want written written. Obama has been feeding Biden’s name to a lot of people.
And, as I said above, a Friday night announcement is political suicide, where you cost yourself several days of free media. But hey, what do I know?
And, as I said above, a Friday night announcement is political suicide, where you cost yourself several days of free media. But hey, what do I know?
All the hoopla over the next few days is great publicity. Meanwhile Mermaid Man will certainly pick Barnicle Boy to be his running mate. Whoop-de-do.
Oh yeah, another reason it may be Biden (a small one at that) is that Obama’s Communication Director is from Delaware.
[Yeah, I know it won’t be the reason, but it is a nice piece of trivia.]
Obama’s communications director is Robert Gibbs, and I think he’s from Alabama.
Obama’s campaign manager is from Delaware, and his lead media buyer is from Delaware, too.
Can’t…comment….about…to…pop…
Just saw across the wires that Obama’s VP pick is indeed:
HITLER!
😉
No, Dan Pfieffer . . . graduated from Friends.
http://www.observer.com/2008/politics/obamas-revamped-communications-team
DelaDem
I am not predicting it is Sebelius. I am saying I dont think it is Biden.
But I dont know either.
And if you think the Obama people are feeding the curretn buzz, then I think this is a bigger disagreement between the two of us.
And if it is the case, it reinforces my idea it is a distraction.
We shall see. But may I point out that I was apparently right about him declaring this weekend ?
“Sometime he gets full of himself, like when he said he wasn’t donating money to the Obama’s after the FISA compromise.”
Some people followed through on that threat, which is one reason McCain is neck-and-neck in the money race.
The caveat I would put to both my instinct and your sources is NOONE FUCKING KNOWS.
Not Biden, not journalists, NOBODY. The VP has not been told yet.
Only Obama and a very narrow group of advisors. all rumors to the contrary are just rumors.
McCain is only neck and neck in the money race because of the large donations to the RNC from CEOs.
Individually, Obama is killing McCain 2 to 1 (51 million to 25 million).
McCain neck and neck in the money race ? Obama has outraised him 2 to 1 two months in a row.
The RNC outraises the DNC in general (although again not the last two months) so they have more money in hand that they can help McCain with. But that’s a historical feature of their higher contribution limit and richer pool.
DD: News is going out Friday night by text message. The pick will appear with Obama Saturday in Springfield. Goal is apparently to dominate headlines Saturday night, analysis Sunday morning, fallout/chatter all over cable through the start of the convention.
They must hope people will leave the channel on MSNBC, because cable is the only place you’ll see any of the convention. The networks are each devoting only one hour per night to coverage — a good deal less that they just gave some kid in a pool.
“The VP has not been told yet.”
Actually, you don’t know that, either.
Yeah, we knew the VP had not been told as of last night. We know nothing about what has happened today.
Al….
What you are reporting has not been seen anywhere else. Not CNN, Not Drudge, AP, Reuters, The Page with Mark Halperin.
Hmmmmm
Someone make me a Joebama bumper sticker.
Because I have a soft spot for lame-ass jokes.
Sorry, might have misunderstood the chatter in the newsroom, but that’s what somebody in there was saying when we stood down from code red.
Someone make me a Joebama bumper sticker.
I can see Mike W running with this. Thanks Joe. 🙂
According to MSNBC, Biden said “I’m not the guy”.
My bet is still on Clark.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/08/19/1276323.aspx
Here:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/08/19/1276323.aspx
Biden said “I’m not the guy”, according to MSNBC.
Biden said “I’m not the guy”, according to MSNBC.
Maybe Biden can keep a secret.