Three of the Four National Tracking Polls show Obama back in the lead today, after trending that way since Friday. The Fourth poll is Rasmussen, and it shows only a one point McCain lead, so Obama will most likely overtake him in that poll tomorrow as well.
Research 2000: Obama 48%, McCain 44%
Gallup: Obama 47%, McCain 45%
Hotline: Obama 45%, McCain 42%
Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 47%
Polls are polls, I can take them or leave them, and some are better than others as far as methodology goes. But all they are is a brief window into the opinion of the US. A quick snapshot. And national tracking polls are precisely that. They are more immediately reactive to events. Thus I consider tracking polls to be leading indicators of the state of the race. Where the real action is is in the state polls, for that is where the election is won. Right now, as you can see in the Electoral-Vote.com widget off to the right here, the state polls are still showing the McCain bounce. And we will have to watch them over the next two weeks to see if they come back to reflect the national tracking poll.
Or you can just ignore polls altogether and get out the vote!
