Good Obama News Abounds
Today’s ABCNews/WaPo poll shows that Obama has opened up a 9 point lead over McCain. Why is he up?
Just 9 percent of those surveyed rated the economy as good or excellent, the first time that number has been in single digits since the days just before the 1992 election. Just 14 percent said the country is heading in the right direction, equaling the record low on that question in polls dating back to 1973.
Perhaps more importantly, Obama has now exceeded the 50% threshold in support with 52%. By comparison, neither Al Gore or John Kerry ever exceeded 50% in pre-election polling. Another feature of the poll is Obama’s increased strength with white women, where he is now tied with McCain.
If that weren’t enough, Von Cracker points us to an article that shows that McCain has been caught astroturfing letters to the editor by hiring a ghostwriter.
I’ll tell you this, though, I ain’t calling this yet. But McCain is ripe for the picking at this Friday’s debate.
Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain
It’s an exciting poll, but I feel it is probably an outlier. I’m looking forward to the debate Friday. Is there going to be live chat or is everyone going downtown to watch?
I agree U.I. Most national polls show a 3-5 point lead for Obama. Since that is also the margin of error for most polls, the media calls the race as “tied, or close, or tight.” This would be the first poll where it is undeniable that Obama has a wide lead. I will wait until other national polls confirm it.
But I do like seeing it.
The pollster.com Poll of Polls tells a more coherent narrative.
And for fun, here is the Poll of Polls with Third Parties included.
Things are looking good. I say this cautiously.
The debates should be interesting. I hope Obama is ready for McCain to just flat out lie. Don’t believe he’ll lie? Just ask Mitt Romney about timelines.
Unfortunately, that particular ABC poll is already skewed in favor of Obama – 38% of those polled claimed Democratic Party affiliation, 28% claimed Republican, and 29% claimed Independent. When the Independents were pushed a little harder and asked which party they leaned more towards, the numbers came out to be 54% Democratic and 38% Republican.
If all Obama can manage is a 9 point lead when he should own the polls by 10-16 points, you all should be very, very concerned.
What nonsense, Linoge. Obama was never going to own the polls. Keep spinning.
The best thing about a poll like this, outlier or not, is the possibility of steering the media narrative in a positive direction. The fact that Obama is not leading by far more shows that a huge number of voters are either ill-informed (likely) or too stupid to vote in their own self-interests (sadly, also likely). Oh well.
Good news is good news.
Also, outlier or not, he is doing better than either of our previous candidates. Give it another week.
Oh and I remember when McCain got a bounce after Palin/Convention week and it was all champagne for all. Tick, tick, tick…
In a fair 50/50 poll, you would be absolutely right. In a poll skewed 10-16 points in his favor, he should have come out at least 10 points ahead, otherwise he actually came out negative. Funny how the math works.
Linogue….that is the breakdown of the electorate now. Sorry if reality has an Obama-bias.
“38% of those polled claimed Democratic Party affiliation, 28% claimed Republican, and 29% claimed Independent.”
Hey, what if there’s a “Bradley Effect” for Republicans who tell pollsters they’re Independents because they don’t want to answer uncomfortable questions about supporting George W Bush?
“In a fair 50/50 poll, you would be absolutely right. In a poll skewed 10-16 points in his favor, he should have come out at least 10 points ahead, otherwise he actually came out negative. Funny how the math works.”
Funny how what you know about math stops at about .45. Any reputable/worthwhile poll corrects responses to mirror the electorate.
Stick to shooting things. If we’re lucky, you’re competent at that.
Other bad news for McCain, Bush is addressing the nation at 9:01 PM tonight. If you are quiet enough, you can hear the anguished cries of the McCain camp, “Noooo, Noooo. Oh dear God, noooo!”
Will Bush be performing an infomercial on the 700 billion dollar bailout?
Okay, let’s play find the fear phrase! (example: smoking gun/mushroom cloud)
Delawaredem, I never said those percentages were not the makeup of the current electorate. I am simply saying (and, amusingly, you are helping me say it), that if the current electorate is weighted 10-16 points in favor of Democrats, why is Obama only leading by 9?
Honestly, that would not surprise me a great deal, G Rex.
Geezer, given that 2/3s of your post is just pointless ad hominems, it does not really merit a serious response, but I am bored and have far too much free time on my hands. First, unless you can demonstrate that figure-fiddling was implemented on this particular poll, your assumptions are showing. Second, such figure-fiddling would inherently be erroneous, since not all individuals necessarily vote party-line, especially in this coming election (which could be a/the answer to my intial observation). Third, the raw (or at least as raw as we peons are going to get) numbers are found here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_092308.html?sid=ST2008092303897&s_pos=list , so feel free to fumble about some more with those if you feel like it.
My biggest grief with this particular poll is their “net leaned vote” methodology… Basically, when people say “I do not know,” the pollsters keep pushing until they get an answer. “I do not know” is a statistically valid answer, especially this far out from the elections, and just forcing people to submit an answer skews the data already.
Now here’s a poll for Linoge!
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,427241,00.html
FOX News Poll: Obama Reclaims Lead Over McCain, 45% to 39%
You know, I am damned if I agree with this poll (since it will just fit the typical liberal’s stereotypes of a typical conservative agreeing with Fox News) and I am damned if I disagree (because it does not have the same problems as the ABC/WaPo poll I ellucidated above).
Not nice, that.
“The fact that Obama is not leading by far more shows that a huge number of voters are either ill-informed (likely) or too stupid to vote in their own self-interests (sadly, also likely). Oh well.”
Riiiiiight….. Typical liberal BS about how folks who won’t support Obama are just too stupid and unenlightened to know what’s best for them.
“Stick to shooting things. If we’re lucky, you’re competent at that.”
Why? You afraid he’s going to shoot at you from another state?….. and we’re the paranoid ones.
LOL, Linoge!
You really can’t go by any of these polls, with such low sampling numbers I don’t think any of them really tell the truth. You’ld have to sample far more than 2 or 3 thousand people to get a good feel what folks all over the nation are thinking. I’ll just wait until the election which should be an exciting one this term.
Fred Indy:
Take a statistics class so you can understand statistical sampling.