Huh. Maybe that ABC/Washington Post Poll is accurate and not an outlier.
From the Marist Poll, among likely voters:
Iowa: Obama 51, McCain 41
Sept. 18-21; Error margin 4.5 points
New Hampshire: Obama 51, McCain 45
Sept 17-21; error margin 4 points
Michigan: Obama 52, McCain 43
Sept. 16-17; error margin 4 points
Ohio: Obama 47, McCain 45
Sept. 11-15; error margin 4.5 points
Pennsylvania: Obama 49, McCain 44
Sept. 11-15; error margin 4.5 points