More Delaware Polling Goodness
Alright, now we are getting spoiled. First, SurveyUSA. Now Fairleigh Dickinson/Public Mind. As you see below, Survey USA has Markell destroying Lee 64% to 29%. And now FDU/PM confirms the landslide blowout and offers, for the first time ever, results on the other down ballot races.
Markell 61%, Lee 27%
Biden 69%, O’Donnell 26%.
Castle 62%, Hartley-Nagle 28%
Weldin-Stewart 41%, Brady 33% (24% are undecided)
The problem Karen Hartley Nagle encounters is that she is not winning Democrats or women. And that is pretty much the ballgame, for she is not going to win men and Republicans. Shockingly, Democrats favor Castle 47% to 44% over Karen. 59% of women support Castle as well. That is because Karen is unknown to the at-large population Democratic population. Yeah, we political junkies may know her, but your rank and file Democrat really does not, even if they voted for her in the primary. Indeed, I speculate now that Karen won the primary because she had nominal name recognition from 2006. And among the three unknowns, she was the most known.
As I have argued before, the only way to get known, and the only way to disabuse Democrats of the notion that Castle is a moderate who agrees with them on some or most issues, you have to have a lot of money for a sustained media campaign. Karen doesn’t have that, and it is getting to be too late to get it.
Finally, why did they not poll the Denn-Copeland race??!!?? I have a feeling that race will be a mystery up until the election.
How is Weldin-Stewart out polling John Brady? Geez louise, the only thing she has out there are her road signs, which look like business cards.
I think it is name recognition. Look at how she underperforms compared to Markell and Biden. Brady can win this race easily if he gets more visibility, given the high number of undecideds.
Biden and Archmere:
http://think.mtv.com/044FDFFFF0098A0830017009936B1/
I think Denn wins in a walk.
Just a sidebar:
Karen Hartley-Nagle
Bethany Hall-Long
Karen Weldin-Stewart
Hillary Rodham-Clinton
Seriously, what is it with Democrat women?
Christine Todd Whitman (R-NJ)
Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.)
Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.)
Seriously, what is it with Republic women?
G Rex, you just proved how stupid and sexist you are. Some women, no matter their political leanings or whether they are in politics or not, choose to keep their maiden name or use both names. It is their choice, and they do it for a variety of reasons. To honor their family. To protect their independence as a woman.
You decide to make a joke about it, ignorant of the fact that just as many Republican women do the same thing.
And that is typical of Republicans.
“And that is typical of Republicans.”
Ignorance and bad jokes are typical of Republicans? In what world are those things partisan?
Hell, just look at what DV / DTB posts on this site.
I find DV to be funny, knowledgeable and relevant. His humor is a tight rope, and he really threads the needle.
DelDem, you’re a humorless moron. The point was that ALL THREE female Democrat candidates in THIS state hyphenate, and it was funny because I tied them to Hillary.
(And three GOP women in three different states doesn’t make it “just as many Republicans” who do it. And FYI, Whitman doesn’t hyphenate, she changed her maiden name to her middle name when she married, same as my wife.)
I didn’t change my name when I married. No hyphenation, no new middle name. I didn’t because I don’t think I should have to – why is the man’s name more important than the woman’s?
Actually, G Rex….Hillary Rodham Clinton doesn’t hypenate. So what is your point? Are you against hypenated names? Who the fuck cares.
It is not surprising to find Castle up 47-44 among Dems in this state; if I recall correctly that would be a drop in his support over the last election.
KHN has the problem that Al Mascitti once attributed to Protack–he said (sorry, Al, I’m paraphrasing from memory so if I get it wrong correct me) [candidate] wants to run for office, but not to do the things that are necessary to win the office.
Running against Mike Castle is, first and foremost, an exercise in fundraising, which KHN couldn’t do if you dropped her into a meeting of people waving money.
Second, running against Mike Castle involves at least a 2-year orchestrated campaign that gets other key Dems like Markell, Carney, Denn etc. to join you in saying bad things about his choices and votes, and to publicly praise you for taking him on.
Since neither of these things has or is about to happen, KHN might as well call it a day right now and get a head start on 2012.
Let’s face it, the powers that be in your Delaware Democratic Party (specifically including Tom Carper and probably even Joe Biden) have consistently stepped in to keep any A-List Dems from running against Castle. He’s their bud, and they like having a split Congressional delegation.
Speaking as an outsider, we’ll know that you progressives actually have control of the Delaware Democratic Party when we actually see the party risk a Matt Denn or a John Carney against Castle.
Until then….
I agree with you Steve. Fortunately for Carper, the problem will solve itself. Biden is going to be elected Vice President. Castle will run for the Senate against 2010. A free for all will take place for Castle’s seat, probably resulting in a Carney-Copeland race. I predict a B.Biden-Castle race for the Senate.
Weldin Stewart and Rodham Clinton aren’t hyphenated.
“That is because Karen is unknown to the at-large population Democratic population. ”
And, to those of us who do know her, she’s still a loser. She’s as weak a candidate as I’ve seen come along in Delaware. She makes Mike Protack look like a good candidate. I would definitely poll with democrats for Castle if I got the call. As liberal as I am, I have a desire to be represented by someone with more than 2 brain cells to rub together. Credibility is important to me. I can also understand why people show less interest in a Congressional seat. Those 2 year seats are a bear to deal with. People with young families would have to spend half their time traveling to DC and the other half running for re-election. Unless you’ve been in office for decades, re-election is not a given. I’ll settle for 2 democratic senators in DC.
As far as the KWS race against Brady, I’ll poll on the Brady side. He is respected by both D’s and R’s in Dover and he’s got the ability to continue the work started by Denn. KWH could not give a single sensible response at the last candidate forum I attended and she’s not doing a damn thing to earn any votes.
One of the best things about living in a democratic society is that we have the right to vote for persons based on their qualifications and ability to get things done. Neither party has a lock on that talent. There are certainly people who say I’m not a liberal and I couldn’t possibly be a progressive if I would vote for a republican, but I would respond by saying that I believe I am more progressive because I can separate politics from substance and vote for an individual who will give me the most bang for my tax dollar.
Emily Post once whispered this to me:
Once married you are to place your maiden name between your given and ‘married’ name.
Those who agree to join surnames should hyphenate. I see a lot of womem place a hyphen between their maiden surname and husband’s surname. I do no know that men have embraced it and changed their names to their wive’s surname.
Hence, Hillary Rodham Clinton is perfect form.
In my case, Regis is my given middle name. Although I have been married (x2) I have kept my maiden name as my last name since my first divorce. 🙂
Karen Hartley Nagle has it completely backward: she put her ex’s name in the middle and Nagle as a surname.
As to Karen Weldin Steward I don’t have a clue if she’s married or ever been married.
So be it say Emily and, her friend, Amy Vanderbilt.
Biden is going to be elected Vice President. Castle will run for the Senate against 2010. A free for all will take place for Castle’s seat, probably resulting in a Carney-Copeland race. I predict a B.Biden-Castle race for the Senate.
Assuming Biden becomes VP, here’s where I think you might be wrong: Castle runs for Senate, but I suspect it’s against Carney, and you get a Copeland-B. Biden race for the House. My reasoning: Joe will not allow Beau to run a race he might actually lose this early in his career, and I don’t think that Castle will do Beau all the favors that Roth did for Carper, passing out and stuff. Moreover, I suspect that Carney will demand rights to run for the higher office; his ego is boundless enough to believe he could beat Castle even after he lost to Markell.
My other thought, from some rumblings I’ve heard, is that Castle may not run for Senate, that his health problems are going to be too severe and he’s just going to retire. I think that would mean a Copeland run for the Senate on the R side, and then Beau would go for it, but Carney might actually try to primary him.
What interests me in that scenario is that there is no obvious strong R candidate for the House then.
These quite biased posts against some pretty solid and strongly-endorsed female Delaware Democrats tells me a lot about P.I. and it stinks. Badly. Hatred goes a long way in some circles I guess in some kind of awful “Lord of the Flies” type of bonding process.
The obvious hatred against KHN tells me that the anonymous P.I. is one of the nasty Progressive Democrat Sub-division gals in the little clatch that tangled with the CC’ers last year. (that and specifically, her fawning over Rebecca) I’d guess it is Karen Peterson’s lady love, Miss Vick.
Diatribes against strong and successful women is often the strongest from ‘perceived’ challengers. It is widely suggested that KP is playing the game to get enough support from the HIGH DEMs to make a run for Congress in the next round (the kind that Steve Newton discusses). Her early support of Carney until the wind started to blow towards Markell, and her suprising and out of “character” support of the well-documented and stinkingly conflicted Reed is all one needs to see to know that she has fallen afoul of her ‘ independent ‘roots’.
KWS represents the best possible choice for IC IMHO. Savage helped edge her rpimary victory and will also spoil any advantage Mr. Brady might bring to the general election.
I am certainly looking forward to the upcoming IC debate on WDEL.
Steve….
I highly doubt John Carney would primary Beau Biden for the Senate. If Castle retires, and assuming Denn is elected Lt. Governor, then you are right, the Senate race will be between Copeland and Biden. That leaves the House race wide open for Carney, with no prominent Democrat other than Carney running, and no prominent Republican remaining in the state.
Also, Steve…I think you may be right about Beau Biden running for the House if Castle runs. Had not thought about that angle before.