NBC 10 is out with its own poll on Delaware’s gubernatorial race this morning, and its findings confirm the SurveyUSA and FDU/PM polls also released this week.
Markell 64%, Lee 29% (703 LV)
The above linked News Journal article makes the point that Lee has come back from being down in the polls before. In 2004, Lee was behind Minner by 18 points and he closed the gap to make it a relatively close race in the end. To that I say, Jack Markell is no Ruth Ann Minner. Challenging an incumbent is much easier than winning an election on your own merits in an open race. Bill Lee’s reaction to the numbers:
“I did not expect the numbers to show that wide a gap,” Lee said. “They’re inconsistent with the less sophisticated polling we’ve done. But it is what it is. I don’t see it as discouraging. I see it as challenging.”
[…] “I don’t know what effect it will have on fundraising,” he said. “I’ve been very focused on Republicans who I think feel some obligation for the way I got into the race and some sense that this is a climactic election and it’s one we have to win. Those kind of numbers can encourage people. But it’s certainly not a positive for fundraising.”
This response raises two issues. First, Lee thinks his fundraising may increase now, at least among Republicans. Ha! Being down more than 30 points does not increase fundraising. Being down 30 points means the Republican Governors Association and the RNC are at this very moment packing their bags and fleeing Delaware for more contested races, if they were ever here in the first place. Being down 30 points means that the GOP more wealthy contributors will not contribute to Lee, for that is a bad bet on a sure loser. What they will do now is attempt to help Copeland, or they will concentrate on helping McCain-Palin in Pennsylvania.
Don’t believe me? Then listen to Don Mell, a political strategist and consultant who worked on Lee’s gubernatorial campaigns in 2000 and 2004.
“It will effectively shut down Bill’s fundraising capabilities,” he said. “In this economy, I think people are going to be like they are on Wall Street — the herd is going to go where they think they’re going to win. There is that sort of mentality in politics.”
The second issue is the support Bill Lee is garnering among Republicans. Bill Lee, in his quote above, is laying a guilt trip on Republicans. He is basically saying that Republicans should feel an obligation to support him because it was they who drafted him. I wonder if he said that because he saw the breakdowns in the polls on party support. Markell was supposedly going to suffer from a divided party due to the close primary election. Wrong. More than 80% of Democrats are supporting Markell. Meanwhile, only 61% of Republicans are supporting Lee. Indeed, 25% of the remaining GOP vote is supporting Markell. I am sure that rubs Lee the wrong way, hence the guilt trip.