New Intrade Contract Predicts VP Debate Will Boost Obama
Here is the name of the new contract:
Barack Obama’s Intrade value will increase more than John McCain’s following the VP debate
It is trading at 70.0 as I write this, which means traders are willing to take $0.30 on every dollar bet (total payout $1.30) that the outcome will happen.
As a point of comparison, “McCain to Win” contracts are trading at 34.0 so traders need to see total of $1.66 payout for every dollar bet to bit on that contract.
Doesn’t that add up to 104%?
God, I love political economics.
I don’t know – Palin’s expectations are so low that I think it will be a win for her if she speaks coherently. I think the debate format really favors talking point regurgitation.
I’m having trouble seeing a win. I think America’s opinion of Palin has been set. In fact, that might raise the bar for her. Wouldn’t she have to do more than “survive”? Wouldn’t she have to show she “knows” something? Will sound bites really change her image?
And won’t everyone be comparing her answers to Biden’s?
Pandora
She doesn’t have to “win” in any conventional sense; she merely has to look minimally qualified to be VP in the eyes of the GOP social conservative base and not completely whacko to potential swing voters.
The number of VP candidates over the past three decades whom people have credibly accepted, including Ferraro and Quayle, suggests that the American voter doesn’t place that high a premium on the number two person being competent.
I still think changing a reputation requires more effort. The Gibson and Couric interviews combined with SNL will be tough for her to overcome. She will have to change her image, which is why I think she has to do more than survive.
But I guess we won’t know for sure until Friday.
Betting on the future value of another traded commodity? Does that make this a derivative? This sounds like we have the makings of a massive failure of the system. I smell bailout!
Well, given how the scheduled moderator of this little debate is obviously and heavily biased in one particular direction, it would be honestly amazing to me if Palin came out of the situation ahead, regardless of her own inherent debate skills.
Should be interesting to hear about afterwards in either case, I am certain.
OK,,, how about we replace Ifill with Katie Couric?
Ah, wondered when this right wing talking point would rear its ugly head. Next up: Palin refuses to debate due to bias.
Was wondering how you guys were going to try and get her out of tomorrow night.
Pandora – So the fact that the debate moderator is HEAVILY BIASED towards Obama is merely a “talking point?”
BTW this blows up the whole “the media is conservative” nuttery I hear from DL folks.
Hell, if the moderator was heavily biased towards McCain you folks would be screaming bloody murder (and so would the MSM) about how it’s all some Bush/Rovian conspiracy to steal the election from a black man.
Spin, spin, spin.
First, it has been NO secret that Ifill was writing this book.
Second, good luck using this to get Palin out of debating – and even if you did, her numbers would only crash more (hard to believe).
Third, there is no evidence that Ifill isn’t balanced. In fact, a lot of liberals think she’s too easy on republican candidates.
Nice try.
Yeah, what’s fun about watching the wingnuts working the refs today is that Ifill has been working on this book for quite sometime AND its broad subject matter has been known for quite sometime.
But the McCain people OKed her as the moderator anyway.
So make the case that McCain fucked up, again, not that the moderator is biased based on an upcoming book that no one has read besides her editor.
How do we know that the book is biased in Obama’s favor? Isn’t it about the changing role of race in politics? Ifill is pretty Republican friendly, after all, she’s a great friend of Condi Rice.
This is a big deal over nothing. Nate’s advice, over at 538, is to call the republicans’ bluff and pull Ifill off the debate. You know both Biden and Palin have been studying Ifill’s techniques and the sort of questions she’d ask.
So if Ifill goes and someone else steps in which candidate would it benefit. Hint: Not cramming Sarah!
Doesn’t that add up to 104%?
God, I love political economics.
Intrade ain’t a non-profit… the margin between bid and ask are where they make a buck…
That is why when I hear rumors of people trading to bid up McCain, if true, they are either stupid or very willing to lose cash… short term trading would kill you… trying to manipulate and outcome would just provide extra profit to the people on the other side of the trade…