Polling Roundup
Today produced a motherload of polling, all showing good news for Barack Obama and Democrats in general.
TRACKING POLLS
Battleground: Obama 50, McCain 43
Research 2000: Obama 52, McCain 40
Gallup: Obama 50, McCain 42
Rasmussen: Obama 52, McCain 44
Hotline: Obama 47, McCain 41
NATIONAL POLLS
CBS: Obama 48, McCain 45
NBC/Wall Street Journal: Obama 49, McCain 43
CNN: Obama 53, McCain 45
STATE POLLS
COLORADO–Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45% (Obama)
FLORIDA–Rasmussenn: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, Others 1% (Obama)
GEORGIA–Research 2000: McCain 50%, Obama 43%, Others 3% (Obama)
MAINE–Mellman Group (D): Obama 52%, McCain 35% (Obama)
MISSOURI–Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 47%, Others 2% (Obama)
NEW HAMPSHIRE–SurveyUSA: Obama 53%, McCain 40%, Others 5% (Obama)
NEW MEXICO–Albuquerque Journal: Obama 45%, McCain 40% (McCain)
NORTH CAROLINA–PPP: Obama 50%, McCain 44% (Obama)
OHIO #1–ABC: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, Others 2% (Obama)
OHIO #2–Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 47%, Others 2%
PENNSYLVANIA–Muhlenberg College: Obama 49%, McCain 38%, Others 3% (Obama)
VIRGINIA #1–Suffolk University: Obama 51%, McCain 39% (Obama)
VIRGINIA #2–SurveyUSA: Obama 53%, McCain 43%, Others 3%
VIRGINIA #3–Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 48%, Others 1%
NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLING
GA-SEN–Research 2000: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 45%, Jim Martin (D) 44%
ME-SEN #1–Rasmussen: Sen. Susan Collins (R) 53%, Tom Allen (D) 43%
ME-SEN #2–Mellman Group (D): Sen. Susan Collins (R) 49%, Tom Allen (D) 41%
MN-03–Bennett Pitts (D): Ashwin Madia (D) 44%, Erik Paulsen (R) 39%
NH-SEN–SurveyUSA: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 48%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 40%
NM-SEN–Albuquerque Journal: Tom Udall (D) 51%, Steve Pearce (R) 36%
NY-29–Benenson (D): Eric Massa (D) 47%, Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) 42%
NC-SEN–PPP: Kay Hagan (D) 49%, Sen. Liddy Dole (R) 40%
VA-SEN #1–Suffolk University: Mark Warner (D) 57%, Jim Gilmore (R) 25%
VA-SEN #2–SurveyUSA: Mark Warner (D) 61%, Jim Gilmore (R) 31%
Good news. Can we have the election tomorrow, please? I have the feeling that I’m going to be popping a lot of pepcid between now and November 4.
GA-Sen and NY-29 are really interesting. I’ve met Eric Massa. He’s a really great guy and will make a great representative (crossing fingers).
These polls are impressive. I’ll sleep well tonight! 😉
I’ve met him too (probably at the same place you met him, at the evil gathering in Chicago).
DD
In the non-presidential polls, just for me, please note these details
In the GA senate race that 3% “other” (showing up as 5% in some polls) is Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley, who appears to be drawing his support directly out of Saxhole Chambliss….
In the NC senate race this is the widest margin I’ve seen anywhere between Dole and Hagan (usually even with the latest surge it has been Hagan by only 5), but Libertarian Chris Cole is pulling down 6-7% in most polls. Interestingly enough, he’s actually pulling slightly more from Dems than GOPers (according to the crosstabs at PPP)….
So if not in the Presidential race, Libertarian candidates in some key Senate and Gubernatorial races are having an interesting effect….
Steve,
Will Barr have an effect, especially in Georgia?
It’s so cute how the polls either don’t matter or aren’t accurate when Obama is behind, but they’re proof-positive of his awesomeness when he’s ahead.
Who said they don’t matter when Obama was behind? I certainly didn’t believe that!
No one believed they didn’t matter, we simply hoped they’d change. I’ve been nervous – still am! – since the beginning.
I distinctly remember a post on this very site where everyone was asked to say why they didn’t care about the polls or weren’t discouraged by the polls or something to that effect.
I also remember quite a bit of rumbling about how the polls that showed McCain ahead were clearly skewed because Obama supporters are primarily cell phone users who didn’t have land lines so they weren’t included in polling.
There’s always something to explain it all away in Obamaland. It’s so convenient. Reality is simply a bitter pill to be swallowed by others.
UI
Barr will have no effect in Georgia; in both NC and GA (where the strongest Libertarian Senatorial or Gubernatorial candidates are running), the State/local libertarians are going up in the polls [at around the 4-7% range] and Barr has been steadily sliding downward. In June some polls had him as high as 8% in GA; now most have him around 2%.
There is a school of thought that says McCain tanking will lead to a bigger Barr vote, but in traditional red states I don’t see that happening. Ironically, it was Barr who got his balls cut off with the Palin pick, but that lured away the social conservatives he was trying to get.
By the way [for those of you who don’t read DE Libertarian], Barr’s about as much a Libertarian as jason is a GOPer, which is why at least half of the actual Libertarian Party [including me] is NOT supporting him.
There’s a difference between rooting for your candidate and not believing the polls. To say that Obama supporters weren’t worried about the polls after the republican convention is nonsense.
Luckily, for us, McCain picked Palin and imploded. Having said that, I still take nothing for granted.
Dom,
It is going to get worse for you before it gets better.
Thanks, Steve.
I felt that Barr had kind of fell off the map.
pandora
The reason not to take anything for granted: on many of these polls you have to get deeply into the crosstabs to discover that the overall numbers they are reporting include Leaners rather than being all hard votes for a candidate. In a number of these polls, the new Obama move upward is coming from responses from leaners who favor Obama but haven’t yet committed to vote for him.
I’m not at all denying that this is a positive movement for the Democrats, but think about this: if significant numbers of Independents are still just leaning after everything we’ve seen in the past three weeks, then there is still some indication that Obama hasn’t closed the sale.
Also, if you look back particularly at SurveyUSA and Research2000 polls over the past three months you will see a much higher variability in their results week by week than seems credible–often wild 7-14% shifts one way or the other in the span of a couple days–often days in which nothing dramatic happened.
All I’m saying is that maybe Dems looking at these numbers should follow (ironically) the old Reagan Doctrine: Trust but Verify.
True, Steve. Which is why I’m taking nothing for granted. Although breathing has become a little easier! 🙂
P – McCain didn’t implode when he picked Palin. He imploded with the economy.
J – It’s going to get worse for all of us before it gets better. There is nothing worse for our country than a government that is run by one party (see 2000-2006).
The idea of McCain losing the election doesn’t break my heart in the least. I think we all know he was never my first pick – he was simply the least unappealing of the two choices.
There’s a part of me that wants Obama to win because I’m pretty confident that he will never be able to follow through with anything he’s promised. It will be fun to pick him apart for another four years. It’ll also be interesting to see how long it takes his most ardent supporters to finally admit that they may have been had. I promise I’ll be gentle when that happens. OK…maybe ‘gentle’ is too strong a word.
I’ll take the risk that Obama is not as good as I think over the risk that McCain is better than I think 1,000 times out of 1,000.
In the end we are all Americans and we all want this country to be prosperous and free. We want a country that lives up to the lofty ideals of our founding fathers, not one that forces everyone to cower in fear of losing the little bit that we have.
Steve N, you, Hube, me. We are all the same deep down. We want our kids to be safe and happy but we disagree about how to get there.
Largely, because the GOP has paid shills on TV and the radio feeding weak minded people an endless line of BS because they know that they lose on the facts. They lose every argument that gets settled on reason instead of passion.
Somehow you, like so many people, have been taken in by all that bitterness, but I have hope that your hard-heartedness will be cured at some point. I have hope that out whole country can be cured of the meanness and pettiness that we are in the grip of thanks to Bush and Rove. If I didn’t have that hope i would not be a Democrat.
Guess what gang? I think either way, we lose nationally-which I state again is why it is so important to address our local front—passionately!!
It’s all inter-connected, Joanne. This Presidential election is the “biggest” in my lifetime. Who wins at the top of the ticket will directly impact local politics. Good luck separating them… I know I can’t.
For example: I believe the Obama candidacy and message helped Jack Markell beat John Carney.
“There’s a part of me that wants Obama to win because I’m pretty confident that he will never be able to follow through with anything he’s promised. It will be fun to pick him apart for another four years.”
Fun watching the country tank so you can get your revenge, your satisfaction?? How sick….
Oh, Jason. You had me until this paragraph:
“Largely, because the GOP has paid shills on TV and the radio feeding weak minded people an endless line of BS because they know that they lose on the facts. They lose every argument that gets settled on reason instead of passion.”
Apart from the fact that it’s kind of got that whole pot/kettle thing going on – hello, MSNBC – it’s a bit condescending to infer that people who don’t agree with you are simply ‘weak minded’.
I know it’s fun to call me bitter and it’s the easiest way for you guys to explain away the fact that there are real, live, thinking people who think that Obama is a joke of a candidate, but this is so beyond bitter for me. I am genuinely afraid of what will happen to our economy if Barack Obama’s tax plan goes into effect. I’m sorry, but I just don’t see how raising business taxes (small and big) will do anything but make an already bad situation worse.
Stella – Sorry, but I don’t buy for one minute that the Obama camp was elated to see the most recent jobless figures. I’m guessing you were, too. In fact, I’ll bet every bit of bad news that comes out of the economy and Iraq gives the Dems a little thrill up their leg.
I may be bitter, but at least I’m honest. You might want to try it sometime. It’s kind of liberating.
FTR, I don’t think the country will tank if we don’t get universal healthcare or if we don’t get tax cuts. I’m on record as saying that I think universal healthcare would be a complete nightmare.
Watching Obama break every promise will not damage anything but the spirits of those who are hanging their hopes on his promise of change. He will simply be one more politician exposed for the fraud he is and that’s good enough for me.
Dom, I’m not an idiot. Given the economy I’ve already come to terms with the fact that all promises won’t be kept. We have a big mess we have to clean up, and – yes! – it is our patriotic duty to clean it up!
If Barack wins, I predict it will be by 2% at most. Polls are useless except for getting you liberals to hump each other.
“In fact, I’ll bet every bit of bad news that comes out of the economy and Iraq gives the Dems a little thrill up their leg.”
You know what Dom, screw you.
My 24 y/o son is in the Army, he has served in Iraq, he could go back anyday…..I am NEVER happy about bad news coming from Iraq or Afghanistan!!!! I am NEVER happy about bad news coming from the economy given I am a single parent of 3 & barely making it!!! I am NEVER happy about handing a gazillion dollar debt to my kids & future grandkids!!!
I don’t know what world you live in, but this shit is for real. Some of us are paying close attention because IT ACTUALLY MATTERS.
….Not because it’s fun to argue on some blog.
Umm… Pinhead (love the name, btw),
2% of what? The popular vote? Oh my. Haven’t you heard? Obama supporters are playing by the electoral college map… and right now it’s turning a lovely shade of blue.
You need to change your panties, Pandora. You’re dreaming about some of those states. I predict 273 for the winner, whomever that might be.
“it is our patriotic duty to clean it up!”
Since when is it my duty to fit shit caused by the irresponsibility of others? Shouldn’t folks like Obama who talk about wonderful socialist ideals like “shared prosperity” and “shared sacrifice” be the 1st to actually sacrifice rather than telling the rest of America we need to give up something so someone else can have a little more?