It is a given that this is John McCain’s last chance for the Presidency. He will be 76 in 2012 (if he lives that long), and there is no way he would be up to the rigors of a 18 month 24/7 campaign, much less the rigors of the Presidency.
On the other hand, it is assumed, by many here on both sides of the aisle, and elsewhere in the blogosphere, that Sarah Palin will be the new national opposition leader for the Republicans, and that she will run for the Presidency herself in 2012. Half of this is premised on the fact that the Republicans really have no one else to run. What, are they going to run Mitt, Rudy, Fred, Mike, and Ron again?
I beg to differ.
First, while the Republican Party is kinder to its losers than the Democratic Party (i.e. naming institutions like the Hoover Institution after horribly failed Presidential losers), that doesn’t mean they will nominate a failed VP candidate. In 1964, was Henrey Cabot Lodge nominated? In 1968, was Bill Miller nominated? In 1980, was Bob Dole nominated? In 1996, was Dan Quayle nominated? In 2000, was Jack Kemp nominated?
No. The GOP establishment moves on and consolidates quickly behind their next choice. For example, by 1998, it was quite clear that the GOP Establishment was for George W. Bush, just as it was clear in 1995 that Bob Dole would be given his turn. And considering that many in the GOP establishment are horrified by the pick of Sarah Palin, it is highley unlikely that they will back her before the 2012 elections. They will most likely back Mitt Romney.
Second, has Sarah Palin, on her own, given you any confidence that she perform well on the national stage by herself? Take away the Rove handlers and the talking points index cards, and what do you have? An annoying Fargo accent. A person who cannot answer the question about what newspaper she reads. There is simply no way she has a national career after this. She can’t be a talking head on Fox News. One requires a head to do that. One requires the ability to think on her feet to do that. And if one thing that Palin has proven, she can’t do that.
No, if Palin loses, she returns home to a hostile Alaska that may feel embarrassed by her performance on the national stage. The fact that she unlawfully abused her power as Alaska Governor may complicate her future there. It might be a question as to whether she survives reelection in 2010. In order to perserve her image as a mavericilious mavericky maverick on a team of mavericks, she has to win in 2008.