This is Palin’s Last Chance too.
It is a given that this is John McCain’s last chance for the Presidency. He will be 76 in 2012 (if he lives that long), and there is no way he would be up to the rigors of a 18 month 24/7 campaign, much less the rigors of the Presidency.
On the other hand, it is assumed, by many here on both sides of the aisle, and elsewhere in the blogosphere, that Sarah Palin will be the new national opposition leader for the Republicans, and that she will run for the Presidency herself in 2012. Half of this is premised on the fact that the Republicans really have no one else to run. What, are they going to run Mitt, Rudy, Fred, Mike, and Ron again?
I beg to differ.
First, while the Republican Party is kinder to its losers than the Democratic Party (i.e. naming institutions like the Hoover Institution after horribly failed Presidential losers), that doesn’t mean they will nominate a failed VP candidate. In 1964, was Henrey Cabot Lodge nominated? In 1968, was Bill Miller nominated? In 1980, was Bob Dole nominated? In 1996, was Dan Quayle nominated? In 2000, was Jack Kemp nominated?
No. The GOP establishment moves on and consolidates quickly behind their next choice. For example, by 1998, it was quite clear that the GOP Establishment was for George W. Bush, just as it was clear in 1995 that Bob Dole would be given his turn. And considering that many in the GOP establishment are horrified by the pick of Sarah Palin, it is highley unlikely that they will back her before the 2012 elections. They will most likely back Mitt Romney.
Second, has Sarah Palin, on her own, given you any confidence that she perform well on the national stage by herself? Take away the Rove handlers and the talking points index cards, and what do you have? An annoying Fargo accent. A person who cannot answer the question about what newspaper she reads. There is simply no way she has a national career after this. She can’t be a talking head on Fox News. One requires a head to do that. One requires the ability to think on her feet to do that. And if one thing that Palin has proven, she can’t do that.
No, if Palin loses, she returns home to a hostile Alaska that may feel embarrassed by her performance on the national stage. The fact that she unlawfully abused her power as Alaska Governor may complicate her future there. It might be a question as to whether she survives reelection in 2010. In order to perserve her image as a mavericilious mavericky maverick on a team of mavericks, she has to win in 2008.
Was Joe LIEberman nominated? Was John Edwards nominated?
Let’s all hope Palin is nominated in 2012. It would be the best thing that could happen for the Democrats and SNL.
The repubs will probably run a repub gov like Jindal from LA.
If she is in the running it will mean a full scale GOP civil war is on.
Palin 2012! Where do I sign up?
Anonone…I was just talking about Republicans, but yes, Democrats also don’t nominate their VP losers. John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, Lloyd Bentsen, Geraldine Ferraro, Ed Muskie, Sargent Shriver. But we did nominate Walt Mondale.
Palin/Jindal ’12, oh boy they’ll be speaking in tongues, handling snakes… “praise Jesus!”
Jindal another religious crackpot, but he has something Palin doesn’t… intelligence. I am fairly certain he was a Rhodes Scholar.
I’ll admit I’m conflicted when it comes to Palin’s future. If the Republicans were smart they’d ditch her… Oh, sorry. I just read what I typed!
Okay, seriously. The question is: Has the Republican Party hit bottom – in their own eyes? Do they look at this election and blame McCain, or do they question what has become the heart and soul of their platform. One equals the end of Palin. The other signals her rise. Ultimately this isn’t about Palin. She’s just a symbol. Where she ends up after this election will tell us which road Republicans decided to take.
Jindal/Linda Blair ’12!!!
Get Behind Me Satan!!!!
DD,
Yes, exactly – losing the VP in the general is pretty much a presidential career ender in either party.
Mondale (and Gore) did win the VP in the general. So did Bush I.
Maybe Palin will get a call from Jeff Foxworthy to do his game show “Are you smarter than a 5th grader?”
Gov Palin will be fine.
I think it will be a battle for the soul of the Republican party. Will they go the Know Nothing route?
“Gov. Palin will be fine.”
Dumbest comment of the thread. Her approval ratings in Alaska have plummeted as it’s become apparent that she’s more sizzle than steak, her personal ethics are appalling, and her “expertise” amounts to nothing much. In short, they, too, are realizing she’s a joke. If you read the the Alaska newspapers you’ll see this. Alaska has a better newspaper situation than Delaware, but it’s pretty clear she won election because the far more famous names were getting ink for their ethical lapses. She’s now going through the vetting she never got while running for governor. And remember, she has members of BOTH parties gunning for her — and her far-right rhetoric is going to destroy the across-the-aisle help she got in ousting her superiors in the Alaska GOP.
In short, I don’t think she’ll be able to charm her way out of this one. And even if she does, she appeals mainly to a group that’s coming in for a huge backlash, the far-right wing of the party.
Mike P.
She is already fine – a fine example of a republican ignorance, corruption and theocracy.
Assuming McCain loses to Obama, I’d look for Palin to take Ted “build my deck” Stevens’ seat in the Senate after her second term as governor. Of course, she just might have to take it from Mark Begich, the Democrat mayor of Anchorage, who’s polling neck and neck with old Ted.
G Rex.
You do realize that Ted Stevens is running for reelection this year, correct? He is running against Mark Begich (D), the Mayor of Anchorage. Begich is favored to win. Lisa Murkowski (R) is up for reelection in 2010. Perhaps you mean you want Sarah Palin to primary Lisa. That is possible, but it would mean that she would have to give up the Governor’s race, for Sarah is up for reelection in 2010 as well. Her Lt. Governor, Sean Parnell, is expected to challenge Ethan Berkowitz (D) in 2010 for the House. Berkowitz is currently challenging Don Young (R), and is also expected to win.
And I just reread your comment, G Rex, and realize that you did realize that. LOL. Thus, you see no national future for Palin, and instead expect her to run for reelection in 2010, win, and then challenge Begich in 2014. That is possible, and most likely probable, if she wins reelection in 2010.
“I’d look for Palin to take Ted “build my deck” Stevens’ seat in the Senate after her second term as governor.”
So you think she’ll suffer no further backlash from this campaign? I question that. Here’s a tidbit from the Anchorage Daily News web site, Oct. 7:
–Anchorage pollster Ivan Moore says Palin’s
positive-to-negative numbers dropped 3 percentage points in the past two weeks, to 65-30, compared to 68-27 in late September and 82-13 just after McCain chose her as his running mate. That’s based on an Oct. 3-6 poll of 500 likely Alaska voters.
Since late 2005, Moore says, “While her positive rating was lower early in her statewide career, her negative has never been measured at a higher point than it is today.”
Correct DD, I don’t see Palin as a national figure on her own; that is, not unless she gets to spend 4 years as VP. I’ll go on record here as predicting that neither Obama or McCain will serve more than one term. Obama’s policy ideas simply won’t work, and McCain won’t be able to get anything through a Reid/Pelosi Congress without compromising any meaningful reform out of it.
Geezer, an article in the same paper (today) outlines how Dems in the Alaska legislature are less likely to work with Palin than they had before, but adds,
“But Palin would also return as a national figure who excited huge crowds across the nation and is already being described as a potential presidential candidate four years from now. She continues to enjoy high approval ratings among Alaskans, and she would come back a seasoned campaigner with new political chops.”
Yeah, I’m not as impressed by articles as I am by numbers. What “chops,” pray tell, has she developed? Quite the contrary, most of her utterances have been revealed to be gibberish, and she pointedly has NOT gone through the usual media wringer, unless you count a couple of patty-cake interviews as “tough.”
You don’t develop chops by speaking to your supporters. You develop them in the heat of battle. She’s a fraud, and it’s going to be hard to get people, even the ones who still like her, to forget that.
The very fact that such an article is being written illustrates my point. And that point is furthered by the fact that the quote you pulled, which is pretty much the only one like it in the article, came from Dave Dittman, Palin’s pollster. Hardly an unbiased source.
Here’s a little balance from the same article:
Gregg Erickson, former publisher of a publication on state government who has watched Alaska politics for decades, predicted a rougher road for Palin than in the past.
“I think things will be very, very different for her if she comes back,” Erickson said. “She’s done some things as vice-presidential candidate that are not favorable for her role as governor, her ability to govern.”
Dittman agreed that a returning Palin would face a more aggressive Legislature than before her turn on the national stage, one that probably wouldn’t be as intimidated by her as before. —
And so on. I’ll say this — winning back allies in Alaska will test her political skills a lot more than the presidential campaign has.
I’m gonna go out on a limb and say I think they’re gonna nominate Huckabee in 2012. I predicate this on the idea that I think the GOP has been defeated on the economic issue, and that this won’t change over the next four years. A debateable assertion, perhaps, but if it holds, Huckabee stands to be the winner. He is charming and socially conservative at the same time, and as a Southerner should have a better shot at winning Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina than McCain does this year. He could put someone from Ohio or Colorado on the ticket (the options don’t look very good right now, but who knows) and then see how well his folksy charm will play in the midwest (while giving up on New Hampshire).
Hey, Iowa picked him once. That’s a pretty good start. I was saying all season long that Huckabee was the guy I was most worried about (followed by Palin on the VP front, but I didn’t know what a dopey loon she was then).
I agree X, Huckabee is the best thing that the GOP has right now. He is a gentleman. We will never catch him in a macaca moment, because he doesn’t think that way.
I don’t think he has a shot at winning, unless Obama (skydad willing) totally tanks. Ironically, if Obama tanks, I think they will need a hard-ass to run against him. That ain’t Huck. My pick for 2012 is Newt. Huck in 2016.
But Huckabee believes cavemen hunted dinosaurs, right? besides, he’s been bought out by Fox News the way they did with Kasich – who I always thought should have been the nominee instead of Dole. Heck I’d say Michael Steele would be the GOP’s go-to guy in 2012; shame he couldn’t have won MD in the meantime.
Oh, and any response to my prediction in #17?