The thing I like about Return Day is that it is the first engagement of the next election. To much of the nonpolitical world, the election is over. To political junkies, there is always another election, and the time to prepare for it is right after you put down your glass of celebration or despair following the past election’s results.
In Delaware, Return Day is a time for wild speculation. I believe I saw the first Matt Denn for Lt. Governor sticker at a Return Day in 2004. The first Markell for Governor sticker was seen in 2002. Some candidates indeed openly yet indirectly encourage the speculation.
Just as John Carney did here:
Signs were painted and stickers distributed pleading, “Send JC to DC.”
Offered a sticker to wear himself, though, Carney demurred.
Such stickers are eagerly awaited on Return Day. Often, they hint at the next big ambition or the next big campaign. And sometimes they reflect only fantasy.
Carney said somebody told him ahead of time about the stickers — just having some fun, they said.
“And I told them to go ahead and have their fun,” Carney said. “I’m lieutenant governor right now.”
The sticker talked about is here:
No denials, there Mr. Carney. No Shermanesque statements. Carney was content to let the fun, or speculation, continue. Of course, he could not directly encourage the speculation by saying “That is a great sticker, I hope I do get a chance to go to DC.” That may work in Illinois, where several potential replacements for Sen. Barack Obama have openly declared their willingness to be appointed by Gov. Blagojevich. But here, given the prior conventional wisdom that Vice President-elect Biden will be the final arbiter of who gets appointed to the seat, and that his inclination is to save the seat for his son, it would be risky to be so bold.
And that has been the conventional wisdom for years around here: that Beau Biden will replace Joe Biden at some point in the Senate.
I think that CW is wrong on several counts, and indeed, has been replaced by a new CW.
Joe Biden has given no indication that he wants to so overtly help his son. Sure, Beau has the last name, his father’s good will with the people, huge name recognition, and the money that comes from his father’s fundraisers, but I think Joe thinks that is enough of an advantage. Indeed, when the Attorney General spot came open in 2005 when Jane Brady resigned to take the Judgeship offered by Governor Minner, Minner, on the senior Biden’s insistence, could have appointed Beau at that moment, and then run for reelection in 2006 with the advantage of incumbency. While I am not privy to the thoughts of Joe and Beau Biden, I think it is telling that they did not choose that path, but instead ran on his own for the office.
I think the same modus operadi is at work here. Of course, Beau Biden cannot be appointed to fill his father’s Senate seat at this moment because he is currently serving with his National Guard unit, awaiting deployment to Iraq. And he will be in Iraq for a year. Thus, it would be illegal for him to be appointed. But, if Joe and Beau wanted Beau to take that seat in the 2010 special election, Governor Minner would be instructed to appoint a place holder like Harriet Windsor Smith or Carl Danberg.
Now, some will say that this remains the most likely scenario for the upcoming appointment, because it still coincedes with the notion the Bidens held regarding the AG office: that Beau should earn the office “on his own merits” by running for it directly without the advantage of an appointment incumbency. That’s true, and it may still play out that way.
But I think something else has happened. Democrats are now split. For the placeholder appointment to work, allowing Beau to run in 2010, Carney and his supporters would have to be on board. Return Day showed that they are not, and are instead openly speculating about sending “JC to DC.” Carney would have to disavow publicly any interest in the Senate for a placeholder appointment to work, and he did not. Yes, he said he is only Lt. Governor right now. But the operative phrase is “right now.”
I think the new CW at work is that John Carney is owed this appointment by Minner, and that Carney is more than capable in serving as Senator.
A placeholder appointment for the benefit of Biden now would threaten to divide the party. A placeholder appointment requires almost unanimity that Biden should be Senator in 2010. That unanimity is not there now.
Now, Beau Biden himself is not without options. I believe the House seat will be open in 2010, whether by Castle retiring or by his running for the Senate himself. And if Castle does decide to run for reelection in 2010 to the House, Beau can run for reelection to the AG office, and wait for Carper to retire in 2012 (a possibility, although remote) or for Castle to retire in 2012 or 2014.
Your thoughts?