Weekend Elections Update

Here are the big election/campaign stories of the weekend:

• LA-02: Corrupt douchebag incumbent William Jefferson (D-New Orleans) lost in a surprise upset to Joseph Cao (R), an immigration lawyer who will become the first Vietnamese-American to serve in congress. Cao’s website is very short on details – he’s for clean ethics, hurricane recovery, good education, and public safety. He wants to reform healthcare and cut wasteful spending. In other words, he wants everything that every politician from every party claims to support. More interesting is his action item to “Preserve our wetlands and expand coastal restoration for hurricane protection”, which is a phenomenally good idea, but it remains to be seen whether or not he’d really stand up to oil companies and developers to make this happen. As an immigration lawyer, I imagine he’ll be sympathetic to the idea of expanding legal immigration, and given his history (his father was tortured by the Viet Cong), I imagine he’d be sympathetic to the plight of refugees in third world countries. No one really knows what kind of politician he will be (he’s never held elected office), but this seat is certain to be a top priority for the DCCC, as it is by far the most Democratic-leaning seat held by a Republican (PVI D+28 – compare to Mike Castle, PVI D+5. or Walt Minnick, the Democrat in ID-01 which is R+19).
• LA-04: With all regular votes counted, Republican John Fleming leads Democrat Paul Carmouche by 356 votes in this Republican open seat, and Carmouche is not conceding as there are still many provisional ballots outstanding. If you don’t think provisional ballots could end up giving Carmouche a win, you need to read the next bullet point. (h/t SSP)
• OH-15: Now that the provisional ballots have been counted, Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy has beaten Republican Steve Stivers for this Republican Open Seat by a 2,311 vote margin, which is over threshold needed to avert an automatic recount. Before provisional ballots were counted, Stivers lef by 146 votes. In 2006, Kilroy lost to incumbent Deborah Pryce by 1,062 votes. Democrats have so far gained a total of 21 seats this cycle, for a 79 seat margin of 257 to 178, or 59% of the House.
• MN-Sen: Speaking of 59%, the Franken (D) campaign claims that they are ahead by 4 votes, if the opinions of local election officials on challenged ballots hold. That would give Democrats 59 seats in the Senate, one shy of a filibuster-proof majority – meaning it would only take one Republican to come down with a case of principles (plus Democratic and Lieberman unity) in order to stop any procedural shenanigans by the GOP. In any case, the counting continues, and no one’s quite sure who’ll win this one.
• PA-Sen: Chris Matthews just signed a long-term contract with MSNBC, so he’s unlikely to run against Arlen Specter (R) for Senate in Pennsylvania in 2010. This is good news – Matthews (AKA Tweety) is a pompous blowhard and would almost certainly have been an embarassment to us even if he won. Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA-07) is out as well. Speculation runs high around the possibilty that Reps. Patrick Murphy (D-PA-08) or Allyson Schwartz (D-PA-13) may run, or State House Deputy Speaker Josh Shapiro. Wingnut Pat Toomey, president of the Club for Growth (and also a client), may seek to challenge Specter in the primary, as he did in 2004. A Toomey win in the primary would likely put this seat in Democratic hands, as long as our candidate ran a good, scandal-free race. (h/t SSP)
• KS-Sen: Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) has taken herself out of consideration for cabinet posts in the Obama administration so that she can concentrate her efforts on solving Kansas current fiscal woes. Sebelius, twice voted one of America’s best governors, had been considered a shoo-in for a cabinet job if she had wanted one. Sebelius is term-limited, which would make her the ideal candidate to run for Senate in 2010, with Republican incumbent Sam Brownback having said he will be retiring. Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson would likely be the Democratic candidate for Governor in 2010. (h/t TPM)

And one final note, Obama has named retired General Eric Shinseki for Secretary of Veterans Affairs. Shinseki is noted for having predicted in 2003 that the number of troops sent into Iraq would be inadequate to establish security. Shinseki, the first Japanese-American four-star general, is the first Asian named to Obama’s cabinet, and the first Asian to hold this post. Veteran’s groups greeted the selection with considerable enthusiasm.