The Coming Irrelevancy of the Republican Party

From Andrew Sullivan:

[The Republican’s] clear and open intent is to do all they can, however they can, to sabotage the new administration (and the economy to boot). They want failure. Even now. Even after the last eight years. Even in a recession as steeply dangerous as this one. There are legitimate debates to be had; and then there is the cynicism and surrealism of total political war. We now should have even less doubt about what kind of people they are. And the mountain of partisan vitriol Obama will have to climb every day of the next four or eight years.

As I said before, the Republicans thrive at being an opposition party. There is no tactic too shameful that they will not employ. There will be no peace or bipartisanship between the GOP and Obama. Sure, a few Senators here and there may defy the groupthink that is the GOP opposition once and a while, but they will be a pretty united block of “NO” going forward. Thus, in two years the key will be to make the Party of NO irrelevant in governance. When Al Franken is finally seated as Minnesota’ s Senator in the coming weeks, we will have 59 Senators. One shy of a Filibuster proof majority. Once we get that last Senator, there will be no need to pander to Republicans. There will be no need for water down legislation so that it garners the support of Republicans. Some Blue Dog Democrats like Carper and Nelson will still be a problem, but at least they are Democrats.

In 2010, shockingly, the initial battlefield again favors the Democrats for the third election cycle in a row. As you will see, it is possible for the Democrats to pick up yet another 7 to 8 seats. Which is good, since in 2012 we have to start defending all the seats we won in 2006 to take the majority. Indeed, the Senate battlefields from 2012 on will favor Republicans simply because the Democrats will have more seats to defend.

So let’s review the seats up for grabs:

Strong Dem
INDIANA (Evan Bayh)
CALIFORNIA (Barbara Boxer)
NORTH DAKOTA (Byron Dorgan)
VERMONT (Patrick Leahy)
WISCONSIN (Russ Feingold)
HAWAII (Dan Inouye)
ARKANSAS (Blanche Lincoln)
MARYLAND (Barbara Mikulski)
WASHINGTON (Patty Murray)
NEW YORK (Chuck Schumer)
OREGON (Ron Wyden)

Leans Dem
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Open)
The only reason it is not an strong Dem race is because it is an open seat, so there is at least the possibility that the GOP will be competitive. But NH has become solid blue, with a small GOP bench. Either Reps. Carol Shea-Porter or Paul Hodes will be the next Senator of New Hampshire. So this is a pickup. Hey! We are already to 60. We can stop now. But let’s continue anyway.

NEVADA (Harry Reid)
He was supposed to get a serious Republican challenge, but they have no contender that is not ethically challenged.

DELAWARE (Open)
This seat becomes competitive if the traitor Castle runs. Otherwise it is Beau Biden v. Charlie Copeland or Christine O’Donnell, and a Dem win.

NEW YORK (Kirsten Gilliband?)
While Gilliband may get a primary, and indeed she may lose to Cuomo or someone else, the Democratic nominee will be favored to win the election. The GOP only has Giuliani, and he is going to run for Governor against Paterson.

ILLINOIS (Roland Burris?)
Like in NY above, Burris will get a primary, and I am pretty sure he will lose it. Still, the Democratic nominee will be favored in this heavily Democratic state.

Strong GOP
UTAH (Robert Bennett)
IDAHO (Mike Crapo)
SOUTH CAROLINA (Jim DeMint)
IOWA (Chuck Grassley)
GEORGIA (John Isakson)
ARIZONA (John McCain)
ALASKA (Lisa Murkowski)
ALABAMA (Richard Shelby)
SOUTH DAKOTA (John Thune)
OKLAHOMA (Tom Coburn)

Competitive
COLORADO (Michael Bennet)
This seat is competitive simply because the appointed Bennet is untested. He was appointed to serve out Salazar’s seat, yet as the Superintendent of Denver’s schools, is largely unknown throughout the state. If he is challenged in the primary, or if he garners a strong GOP opponent, this seat will be competitive.

MISSOURI (Open)
Kit Bond is retiring and we have a stellar recruit in Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. This is a top pick up opportunity. So, assuming we defend Colorado successfully, we have already picked up two seats. 61!

KANSAS (Open)
Sam Brownback is retiring to run for governor. If current, popular yet term limited Governor Kathleen Sebelius runs, she wins and we pick up another seat. But she could be the next HHS Secretary. I hope not, since she is the only Democrat who can win this race. So, assuming Sebelius runs, we have picked up three seats! 62!

KENTUCKY (Jim Bunning)
Crazy senile Jim Bunning is insisting on running again, even though the national GOP is trying to push him out. If he runs for reelection, the Democrats win. If he doesn’t, I say this race favors the Republicans. Our potential Democratic nominees are all strong: Lt. Dan Mongiardo, who almost beat Bunning six years ago, Rep. Ben Chandler and State Auditer Crit Luallen. So if Bunning runs, we have now picked up our fourth seat! 63!

FLORIDA (Open)
Mel Martinez is retiring and there will be a competitive primary on both sides, and hence a competitive election. The only candidate that who could make this race noncompetitive is current Governor Charlie Crist. But I don’t think he will run. So let’s say we win this seat. 64!

PENNSYLVANIA (Arlen Specter)
Specter will be primaried like he was in 2004. He may survive, he may not. A host of Democrats are waiting to take him on, including Rep. Patrick Murphy. I am not counting this among the seats we can pick up, because I have seen Specter escape time and again.

LOUISIANA (David Vitter)
You have to consider a race competitive where the incumbent was caught with a prostitute wearing diapers. Vitter will be challenged from the right, and by the Democrats. Rep. Don Cazayouz could knock off Vitter. So say we pick up Louisiana. 65!

OHIO (Open)
Voinovich is retiring, and all they have is recently defeated Mike DeWine. We have a huge bench of popular congressmen and women, with Rep. Tim Ryan being the strongest recruit. So we pick up another seat. 66!

Potentially Competitive
NORTH CAROLINA (Richard Burr)
Depending on the national climate, he could be vulnerable. Like in 2007, no one thought Liddy Dole was going to lose, but she did. Given that the state is trending Democratic, what with it voting to oust Dole and for Obama, it is a potential pickup opportunity. Our candidates could be either Reps. Brad Miller or Heath Shuler. If we win, we have 64 seats!

CONNECTICUT (Chris Dodd)
Dodd may retire, but if he does run again, recent polls showed him to be in a weak position. Still, besides Joe Lieberman and popular Governor Jodi Rell (who is running for reelection and not for the Senate), who do the Republicans have? I suppose they could run recently defeated Congressman Chris Shays. Maybe he could make it competitive, but I will believe it when I see it.

So, leaving Pennsylvania to the GOP, and assuming we win NY(2), CO, CT, DE, and IL (the only potentially competitive Dem seats), that is a pickup of 7 seats.

That is one short of a super majority. With 67 seats, we could start passing Constitutional Amendments. Muwhahahahaha.