The source of Obama’s advantage is critical: independent voters, who give the president high marks on his handling of the economy and his job overall.
Obama won these voters, who famously recoil from what they see as overly partisan and shortsighted politics, by eight points in 2008 — a dramatic improvement for the Democrats from 2004, when George Bush and John Kerry tied.
There are other groups of voters worth watching. Among those with a history of voting in presidential elections, Obama and Sen. John McCain essentially ran even. Obama won first-time voters by a convincing 39 points — owing largely to a combination of younger voters, Hispanic voters and disaffected voters.
The sentiment seems alive and well today. Seventy-three percent of all voters, The Post found, believe that the president is trying to cooperate with Republicans. Only 36 percent believe the same to be true of the GOP.
Thus far, Republican leaders have let their strategy be guided by their most conservative base, capturing perhaps a third of the nation’s voters. For Republican candidates seeking the support of right-wing activists in Iowa, who will exercise outsize influence in the presidential selection process in four years, that strategy — while not entirely defensible in the midst of an economic crisis — is understandable.
Are you listening Mike Castle?