PPP Polling to Post Pleasing Percentages? UPDATED: No.
Jason has made an absolute guarantee that Mike Castle will not run for the Senate seat. But what happens if the PPP polling shows Castle close to or beating Biden?
Last week Raleigh, North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling announced they would poll several races in Delaware for 2010.
On the company’s blog this morning they announced they would be releasing the findings in pieces over the next week.
It seems the results from the Mike Castle versus Beau Biden question created confusion for the pollers, who were less confused when they saw the younger Biden only won his 2006 AG race by 5 points. This confusion could mean he didn’t poll so well.
I guess PPP expected a blowout simply because he last name was Biden, no matter if he was going up against the only Republican in the State that can win the race. I imagine that there would be considerable and almost unbearable pressure from the NRSC and the RNC to run. It is very rare to have a potential Republican pickup. So whatever Jason promised he would do if Castle did in fact run, he better prepare himself to do it.
In other news, it would appear that all statewide politicians have good job approval numbers.
In the first tease of the poll’s results, PPP reported that “Delaware loves its politicians,” and that people were eager to be polled.
UPDATE: And just as I post this, PPP updated their blog with the results:
Castle 44
Biden 36
Castle has a 54% approval rating, and a 33% disapproval rating. 45% of Democrats approve of him, which is a significant drop of support from previous polls of Democrats. 39% of Democrats disapprove.
Interestingly, 24% of Republicans disapprove of Castle, probably because of the misguided belief that he is a RINO. Hey wingnuts, he is one of you, a lemming, a follower. Embrace him.
Biden has a 49% approval rating and a 27% disapproval ratings.
The key to the race? Independents. They favor Castle right now, 53 to 20, with 22% of Democrats voting for Castle.
Tags: Beau Biden, Delaware, Delaware, Mike Castle
Direct Link to PPP
Boo.
No surprise here. The position of Governor is a ticket to the hearts of our populace, no matter the party. Traditional ‘Delaware Way’ says that Castle would rather retire than go up against Beau Biden.
He is going to run for it.
He might even switch parties. 🙂
If Castle runs for the Senate I will march down Main Street in Smyrna nude. It ain’t happening.
Here is why:
There is no way he pulls 22% of the Dems after a campaign against Biden or Carney. No way in hell.
AMEN.
His mucho crappy voting record will out.
I updated the post with the results and my commentary.
Jason,
You should save that for Return Day if he wins.
“Jason has made an absolute guarantee that Mike Castle will not run for the Senate seat”
I agree with you, don’t see it happening! Castle is coming to the end of his political journey and it’s time for him to settle down and have some kids!
jason330
“If Castle runs for the Senate I will march down Main Street in Smyrna nude. It ain’t happening.”
Shit! I give you my promise I’ll vote against Castle just to save Smyrna.
Does it strike anyone that Jason has gender issues? Sexually-themed taunting comprises much of his verbal holster. Now this bizarre promise.
Belinsky,
You are a sissy pants girlieman freakshow.
I don’t think I would call that great news for Castle. If I read your post correctly, Beau Biden’s name recognition is a bit low if people thought they were polling Joe Biden. It sounds like PPP had remind people that they didn’t like Beau Biden so much. I just don’t see Castle doing all that well against a much younger, more energetic candidate.
I think the timing is going to suck for Beau. Pretty much half of his term as AG will have been filled by someone else, as he serves in Iraq. My recommendation to Beau is to stay on as AG for another term (if he wins re-election) and build something of his own.
There are plenty of races in his future.
Then it will be Carney, and PPP was supposed to poll Carney v. Castle numbers for a possible House race. Hopefully those numbers will be released this week.
I can see why Biden would want to run now, it’s not like Senate seats are available all that often. If it’s filled by someone younger like Carney it will be a while before it’s available. Biden will have plenty of other opportunities though, like governor in 8 years or Senate when Carper retires.
I’d actually like to see the race flip-flopped: Carney for Senate and Biden for Representative.
When talking about Carney or Biden for the Senate seat, the only poll respondent that matters is Tom Carper.
“His mucho crappy voting record will out.”
You will lose a lot of elections trying to appeal to voters to make judgments based on voting records. If people haven’t yet decided they dislike Castle, why, 30 years into his career, would they start now?
“I just don’t see Castle doing all that well against a much younger, more energetic candidate.”
And I don’t see Biden succeeding against a candidate who actually knows what he’s doing.
If Carney runs for the House, and it looks like he will, Castle won’t take him on. Instead, he’ll run against the weaker candidate, Biden, for the Senate. Sorry Jason.
Castle gets to finish the remaining two years of Joe’s term in the Senate. Thing is, once he gets there I don’t see him retiring any time soon unless the D’s manage to take a 60-seat majority and that’s pretty iffy. Especially if this seat flips R.
What happens to Beau? A loss would take the pressure from his Dad off him and he could go practice law and live a peaceful life out of the limelight.
There’s alot of Not Sures and Undecideds in the questions’ crosstabs, so it looks to me that there is real room to convince folks, so I wouldn’t say that Castle is unassailable if he runs. It also argues (to me at any rate) for starting earlier rather than later.
I think 44% is pretty weak for someone who has been an elected official in Delaware for such a long time. A lot of people are not reflexively jumping on his bandwagon.
Anyway you spin it, these are terrible numbers for Castle. Simply having ANY numbers on the table right now is bad for Castle. The fact that he is in a horse race with a guy who has been out of the country for 8 months is terrible.
Carney, Biden…it does not matter. The Dems are not going to give away a senate seat and Castle is not going to fight for it. (Remember crazy O’Donnell already announced, so he’ll have a primary as well.)
O’Donnell can be bought off with a bagel and a Diet Coke.
I hope you are wrong, but think you are probably right.
Good point, Jason. Castle would have to face a primary with O’Donnell. How many pro-choice Republicans are left in the Republican Party these days?
“The fact that he is in a horse race with a guy who has been out of the country for 8 months is terrible.”
Out of the country for eight months?
Dude, he hasn’t even been on duty for six. And a lot of that was training and prep time time. I’m not even sure if he’s out of the country YET.
He probably isn’t even in the Guard, right anon? I have not seen his enlistment papers. What is Biden hiding?
You’ve totally got the wrong guy.
I’m on the side of truth, justice, beauty, and so forth. No wingnuts here.
One thing that might make a race against Carney more attractive than a race against Biden would be money. I think John tapped out his base in last year’s primary. Plus, with GE stock nosediving I wouldn’t expect John’s old Dartmouth buddy to be coming to the rescue this time.
The Bidens will, once again, suck all the oxygen out of the room for this race.
On the other hand, a chance to flip this seat will strongly motivate Republicans all over the nation. Castle should be able to keep up with the Bidens if it looks like he’s got a chance.
You may be right Pragmatist but the Republicans have a whole lot of seats to defend in this next cycle. They may decide that the Delaware seat is not worth the investment.
you guys have way too much time on your hands…why dont you go out and volunteer at your local animal shelter
What do you mean a horse race with a guy who has been out of the country? AG Biden has gotten a lot of well deserved publicity serving this fine nation and national press recently during the campaign. He is at his peak.
The Delaware Way says its Mike’s chance to retire on top. He’ll get it if he wants it. Biden will run for reelection if Castle goes for it. Then Biden will get his turn in 6. It’s just our way.
If Castle goes for it, Christine gets promises of fundraising and heavy hitters for the house seat. That would be my bet knowing the Delaware way.
“Christine gets promises of fundraising and heavy hitters for the house seat.”
No, she won’t. She a lunatic, and the handful of people with money who actually run the state party wouldn’t touch her with a 10-foot dildo.
But you keep on predicting stuff, David. It’s nice to have a backup Republican who’s always wrong for those times when Mike Protack is up in the air.
What about this Sussex AWPB (Angry White Persons Brigade) that is forming up?
Those 20 people could form a base for Ms. O.
They ARE her base.
I don’t know what he plans to run for, But I think Castle would benefit politically from a primary with O’Donnell. He gets to be seen as the more moderate Republican. He gets some free publicity from the primary as well. If the nomination is settled too soon the nominee gets no free press.
Castle doesn’t need any publicity. Jason’s protestations aside, he’s got whatever job he wants for as long as he wants it. People here like him, and that’s just a fact. They may not like him now as much as they once did, but he’s still almost a Democrat in many peoples’ books.