First off, do we want him? I don’t.
Markos posits that the only way that Specter wins reelection is by becoming a Democratic or an Independent caucusing with the Democrats. This declaration is based on several facts: 1) While Pennsylvania has become a pretty reliable Democratic state at the federal level, the PA Republican Party membership is tilted to the extreme far right, since many moderate PA GOPers left the party in 2008 to vote in the Obama v. Clinton primary; 2) party primaries are a closed affair, meaning only registered GOPers can vote; and 3) Specter barely beat Toomey last time by 1% in 2004. Since Toomey is running again, and since most of Arlen’s moderate Republican support is no longer Republican, if Specter runs for reelection as a Republican, he will lose.
Markos assumes a party switch is in the works.
I beg to differ. I forsee a Lieberman. He will vote with the Democrats on the budget and on Employee Free Choice Act, get attacked by Rush and the lemmings, and he will leave the party. But he will not become a Democrat. He will become an Independent, and run as such in 2010 and win. But like Lieberman, he will still caucus with his old party. Arlen Specter has simply been too prominent a Republican Senator for far too long to be trusted in the Democratic Caucus, and I don’t think he would feel comfortable there either. He may have no more friends in the Republican Caucus, but at least he knows them.