2010 Statewide Races Predictions WikiPost: 3/12/09
With the first set of polling numbers in, I’m ready to call these two election contests.
US Senate
Beau Biden vs. Christine O’Donnell
Biden will win in a walk and it will not make the front page. All the intrigue will occur prior to the ballot being set. On the Republican side there will be talk about Charlie Copeland or Gary Simpson stepping up to save the party from utter embarrassment – but they will both figured A) that if Mike Castle can beg off they can too, and B) they really would not be sparing the party much embarrasment when all is said and done.
US House of Representatives
John Carney vs. Mike Castle
Once Tom Carper endorses Carney it will be all over for Mike Castle. The race will still be close based on Castle’s long history of delivering large novelty checks to volunteer fire companies and Sr. Centers, but his record (and a well run campaign drawing national interest) will finally catch up with him.
Tags: 2010, Beau Biden, John Carney, Mike Castle, wikipost
This scenario is legitimately plausible.
If MNC ran for Senate, he’d face a Lautenberg-like assault from independent ads – ask Ferris — [although Beau himself would adopt his father’s 1972 approach against Boggs].
If Castle runs for the House, instead of an open Senate seat for which he’s thirsted for many years, it would be a confession of inertia. With the Senate race at that point a mail-in, all Democratic energy would be focused on the House race. Carney outworks any candidate [except maxi-cyclist Markell] and has built a huge reservoir of goodwill, not incidentally for his classy post-primary work for the 2008 ticket. Democrats have a sense of mission when uniting to overthrow an incumbent Republican. Think of Carper’s runs against Evans and Roth.
Mike’s votes — against the stimulus and no doubt other Obama initiatives to come — will be a factor. So will the popular governor’s support for his erstwhile rival.
I think Markell has signaled time and again that he would be in Carney’s corner.
This kind of post is my ‘meat & ‘taters’. Yes, federal level is important, but somehow I care more about our own backyard.
I’m waiting for the even more detailed posts about state-wide races, then the Legislature. Love that shit.
Senate: Castle beats Biden or Carney beats Castle
House: The Dem beats some poor repub loser stiff
There was a prediction about DE state house races last week, Reis. It was a really interesting thread.
As far as Senate and House go, I think you’re right but I think Copeland could decide to jump in. Wouldn’t it be a free election for him since he isn’t currently defending a seat and he would have 2 more years until the next governor’s race.
Back to statewide races: I still can’t figure out why someone would want to take over after Minner. Of course, the same can be said about taking over after Bush. The only difference is one is hairier than the other.
I predict the GOP wins both races. Of course predictions either way are worth cut grass. I will give you points for trying to rally the declining hopes of your party.
I had to do the same last year.
Other statewide predictions…
Auditor: Tom “I Like Suspenders” Wagner faces a tough challenge from John “Big Guy” Brady, who promises to improve watchdog work and write audit reports in plain English. It’s Smyrna firefighters vs. the Rehoboth crowd, the ultimate proxy for a Thurman Adams-Pete Schwartzkopf race. Tossup, but plenty of nastiness on both sides.
Treasurer: Whoever the interim officeholder is runs a lackluster campaign for a full term against a lackluster Republican for a lackluster office, and wins. C’mon, people. This job should really be abolished. Let’s get it done.
Attorney General: That skinny guy with the funny name who prosecuted Capano against… uhm… John Brady? Who do the Democrats have for this seat if Beau gets stupid and tries to move to D.C? Anyway, the Democrat wins on an Andrew Cuomo-esque anti-corruption platform.
Laughable, it is way too early to predict elections two years away.
I disagree that Treasurer should be abolished. It is going to exist regardless. The only question is will it be appointed or elected.
Normally one would think that this office would have a greater level of professionalism if it were appointed, but looking at the last two elected Treasurers and looking at the quality of the appointees of the last two administrations, I don’t think it will benefit us to eliminate an independent voice. Keep it elected.
If the Treasurer did anything, it would be worth it. But how is having an appointed OR elected treasurer any better than folding the job into the Department of Finance?
Insurance Commissioner ought to be appointed, too. KWS and DLW are proof of that. Denn was a good abberation who nevertheless just used it as a stepping stone. And though I udnerstand he was otherwise good, Levinson, like KWS, just stacked the department with Democrats. No state office should be a patronage haven.
Continuing my good-government campaign… while I have an audience of five… all the paper-pushing county row offices – register of wills, recorder of deeds, clerk of the peace, whatever weird stuff they still have up in Kent – ought to be folded into one office and run by the county council or Levy Court, just as other county offices are run. Sheriff ought to be abolished and folded into the county constable’s office.
The only good reason to have so many do-nothing elected positions is to provide jobs and placeholders for politicians.
And while we’re at the whole modernization thing, get rid of Levy Court and make all the counties have the same basic system of governance – elected county execs with county councils of varying sizes, depending on population. (I’m sick of explaining to people that Levy Court is not a bleeping court!!)
Sincerely,
Tilting at Windmills
An audience of six. I read, but leave analysis to the experts! 🙂
If the Treasurer did anything…
What?! Are you saying Markell was a waste of space and the taxpayers’ money was completely wasted with him occupying a chair?
Hey, you said it.
😉
“… looking at the last two elected Treasurers and looking at the quality of the appointees of the last two administrations, I don’t think it will benefit us to eliminate an independent voice. ”
It’s ironic that four state treasurers have been elected since the office was neutered when the Cabinet form of government was created. Each of them — Jack Markell, Jan Rzewnicki, Tom Carper and Mary Jornlin — played a quite useful role.
Yes, JR ran off the rails in her hideous campaigns for Congress and Governor, but her critiques of Castle budget policy in 1991-92 were on target.
No. Markell is an excellent use of space. His talents were wasted in that job. He, like Denn, just used it as a stepping-stone to higher office.
John – just what do you define as “quite a useful role”? Markell sure didn’t speak up about Minner’s mess. He started some inoccuous programs and initiatives that no one could object to.
Let’s get rid of the offices, and reduce the surplus politicians!
(h/t to Ebenezer)
I like the idea of John Brady running for auditor…
Though, can I have someone other then Carney run for US House of Representatives? Someone a little more ALIVE and less the temperament of a sleeping pill?
Despite Jason’s protests to the contrary, Castle has to look at the Senate seat. I’m not saying he’s going to run, but he has to look at it. There is an argument that his votes on the stim bill are a down payment on the funds to come from the R’s to make the jump. The external pressure will be intense after this very public polling.
Beau is as vulnerable as he will ever be and Castle is the last man standing to take him down. (Though there is a rumor that Colm Connoly has said privately he will run against Beau no matter what the race, but that’s really speculative.) Beau has been adequate but not outstanding at AG by nearly all accounts, or at least has done a really bad job selling the job he has done. He will have been away for over a year of his term and has little substantive to show for his work with the exception of what might be a pretty good restructuring of the office – and that’s all inside stuff. There is obvious resentment out there for his running for his Dad’s seat and for the way Kaufman was appointed. Castle will at least consider the jump.
That will make Beau consider his options, too. Looking at the track record to date, you can certainly criticize Beau for some things, but it is not his determination to do the politics his own way, not necessarily the way others lay it out for him. Which means the D’s will be waiting to see what he says on return from duty before anyone says “Boo” about the AG’s race. There are names floating around – Carl Danberg is the odds on favorite to declare if Beau makes the jump. He’s already testing the waters. There are other names, but they do not include John Brady, nor anyone who is currently a household name. The R’s may put up Wharton again or Connoly.
The current, appointed Treasurer has made it clear that she is not interested in running. Tom Cook, former Election Commissioner, Deputy Sec. of Finance and son of Sen. Nancy Cook may want to run. No one will get in the way and live if he does.
Brady will also not run against Wagner. Look for Brady to be appointed Insurance Comm. when the current one resigns in disgrace.