Carney Holds Castle Under 50% For House Seat
Public Policy Polling released more bad news for Mike Castle today:
Carney would start out in decent position to give Castle the strongest challenge he’s had in years. Castle is actually below the magic 50% considered safe territory for incumbents, with a 49-32 edge over Carney.
Carney is still a bit of an unknown to a large swath of state voters, giving him a lot of room to move up.
While all but 13% of Delaware voters have an opinion about Castle, 35% are ambivalent toward Carney
Right now Carney is under performing with Democrats and several key demographics that tend to support the party’s candidates.
…he has just a 48-34 advantage with voters in his own party, and also is at 48% with black voters and only 24% with those under 30. Those numbers would all likely improve a good deal if he made the race.
Castle should be way ahead at this point in his career. PPP points out that other R losers have been further ahead than Castle at this point.
…these numbers do not show invincibility- in fact Elizabeth Dole held a 17 point lead in our polling on the North Carolina Senate race last year as late as February even after challengers to her had been campaigning for several months. This could be a race to watch if Carney makes it.
Here is a link to PPP’s blog in case anyone wants to drop them a note of thanks for helping put the spotlight on this race.
Elizabeth Dole was a carpetbagger who airdropped into that state for her Senate seat. Mike Castle is Delaware through and through.
If you think Mike Castle is so easily defeated, then ask yourself why Tom Carper works so hard to be indistinguishable from him.
I think you observation about Dole means that these numbers are even worse for Castle.
I never said Castle would be easy to beat – I’ve been saying all along that he is beatable and these numbers support that.
I honestly expected Castle’s numbers to be higher, mainly because he’s a Delaware fixture and it seems a lot of people vote for him out of habit.
I’m not saying he’s going to lose, but it does seem that he’ll have a fight on his hands. The real question is if Castle is up for a fight?
“… ask yourself why Tom Carper works so hard to be indistinguishable from him.”
Carper’s voting record in Congress and governance record in Dover are hugely different from Castle’s. To hold otherwise is nihilism or blindness.
Castle going around Delaware defending his record can only make his numbers go down. The question is, which Dem is up to the job of aggressively making Castle defend his record?
I’m not sure Castle is up for a fight of this magnitude….that’s why I also do not see him running for the Senate. He would get tremendous help from the RNC if it got close, but I think Carney could give him a run for his money if he is able to link him with Bush and that time period. However, it might require an agressive campaign that goes against the nature of the “Delaware Way”.
Then again, the “Delaware Way” didn’t get Carney too far so maybe he’ll put a nail in its coffin.
You’re right, John. Carper was far more devoted to cutting taxes as governor than Castle was.
As revenue gushed through Delaware in the 1990s, leading to inevitable tax cuts, the Carper administration steered those reductions in a progressive direction, cutting low-bracket income taxes by up to 36 percent. During the Carper administration, there were also cuts in low-end gross receipts taxes and repeal of taxes on small inheritances.
During this period, there were significant advances in state services, yanking the state out of 20 years of caretaker administrations.
Why didn’t Carney take on Castle in the last election when the Barack HopeBubble would have worked for him
After 2 years of ChangeBust, Carney and the rest of the dems will have a hard time getting people to the polls.
These are numbers in the danger zone for Castle and I think Carney will be able to improve greatly on those numbers so far.
“Carney is still a bit of an unknown to a large swath of state voters”
After 8 years as Lt. Governor – that’s pretty damn sad – and then he wants to represent us in DC???????
“Castle should be way ahead at this point in his career.”
So should Carney, who’s been infinitely more visible than Castle over the last two years. Wow. A third of Delawareans have no opinion about the guy who busted his ass to be governor and had his name plastered on billboards for the last year? Geez. I feel sorry for the guy.
Keep whistling past the graveyard.
The key demographic in the Carney/Castle matchup is registered Dems that vote in primaries.
If Castle loses his Dem cross over support – he loses the election.
I never said Castle was unbeatable. But seriously. Carney has big problems, too. To focus just on Castle’s issues is ignoring the main initial challenge for the Democrats – getting their own guy off the ground.
If Carney can’t pick up more Democratic support – he loses the election.