Public Policy Polling released more bad news for Mike Castle today:
Carney would start out in decent position to give Castle the strongest challenge he’s had in years. Castle is actually below the magic 50% considered safe territory for incumbents, with a 49-32 edge over Carney.
Carney is still a bit of an unknown to a large swath of state voters, giving him a lot of room to move up.
While all but 13% of Delaware voters have an opinion about Castle, 35% are ambivalent toward Carney
Right now Carney is under performing with Democrats and several key demographics that tend to support the party’s candidates.
…he has just a 48-34 advantage with voters in his own party, and also is at 48% with black voters and only 24% with those under 30. Those numbers would all likely improve a good deal if he made the race.
Castle should be way ahead at this point in his career. PPP points out that other R losers have been further ahead than Castle at this point.
…these numbers do not show invincibility- in fact Elizabeth Dole held a 17 point lead in our polling on the North Carolina Senate race last year as late as February even after challengers to her had been campaigning for several months. This could be a race to watch if Carney makes it.
Here is a link to PPP’s blog in case anyone wants to drop them a note of thanks for helping put the spotlight on this race.