2010 State Senate Races Roundup WikiPost: 3/17/09
Before you know it it will be time to campaign again. 2010 is approaching. And once again, half of the State Senators are on the ballot. What makes this year different, however, is that the State Senators elected in 2010 will only be elected to 2 year terms so as to accomodate the decennial census. In 2012, the entire State Senate and State House will be up for reelection, as well as Governor Markell and Lt. Governor Denn. So if you really wanted to throw ALL the bums out, 2012 would be your chance.
Indeed, 2010 present Delaware progressives with their own version of the Kossian slogan “More Democrats then Better Democrats.” The rationale behind the slogan was that first we must take over the Congress, or in our case, the General Assembly, and then we must elect real progressive Dems rather than conservative, or Blue Dog, Democrats. Well, we have a progressive Governor and Lt. Governor, far superior and “better” than our previous Democratic Governor Minner. But we have work to do in the General Assembly. Two of the most hated Dems in the Senate are either up for reelection this go round:
THE FIRST—Wilmington North
Harris B. McDowell (D). Four years ago he coasted to an easy reelection against both Republican Gregory Chambers and, at the time, Independent Tyler Nixon. We need to primary him. It should be the first priority of this site. Given McDowell’s incumbency, his Teflon nature, and registration in the District, this seat should remain Democratic. But given McDowell’s sliminess and potential for corruption, a good Republican could always steal this seat. Leans Dem.
THE FIFTH—Naamans, Claymont, Arden
Catherine A. Cloutier (R)—I expect the Dems to target this race. Cloutier, for an incumbent, barely won reelection in 2006, 53% to 47% over Pat Morrison. I am hearing that State Rep. Bryon Short (D—7th) is considering a challenge. Tossup.
THE SEVENTH—Elsmere
Patricia M. Blevins (D). Senate Majority Whip Blevins keeps this seat easily for the Dems. Solid Dem
THE EIGHTH—Newark
David P. Sokola (D)—Sokola defeated Michael Ramone 58% to 42% in 2006. Ramone then ran for Representative in the 21st and won. I have heard nothing else on this race. Is there a Republican set on challenging Sokola? Is Sokola running again? I have heard that when Sokola retires, Nick Manolakos will run. Until then, Leans Dem.
THE NINTH—Stanton
Karen E. Peterson (D)– A progressive champion, she is expected to coast to reelection. She was unchallenged last time. Solid Dem.
THE TWELFTH—Glasgow, Bear, Southern New Castle
Dori Connor (R)—We let her win unopposed last time. The 62 District Strategy finds this unacceptable, especially in a part of New Castle County that can be good ground for the Democrats. Solid Republican (unless we get a credible competitive candidate, then maybe I will change this to Leans Republican).
THE THIRTEENTH—Newport, Wilmington Manor
David B. McBride (D)—was unopposed in 2006. It is a “Solid Dem” seat until the GOP finds a credible candidate.
THE FOURTEENTH—Delaware City, Middletown, Odessa, Smyrna, Townsend, Clayton
Bruce Ennis (D) is running for his first full (although only 2 years) term after winning this seat in a special election. It was a contested special election that Ennis won by 68% over our good friend Joanne Christian. Is she game for a rematch? Is anyone? I am rating this Lean Dem since the freshman Democrat is facing his first reelection, which is when he is most vulnerable.
THE FIFTEENTH—Western Kent
Nancy W. Cook (D) was unopposed in 2006. Solid Dem.
THE NINETEENTH—Bridgeville, Georgetown
Thurman Adams, Jr. (D)–It finally appears that this old bastard is retiring. He has not announced it officially yet, so the formal jousting for the seat has not begun in earnest. Given the conservative nature of the district, I would expect the Republicans to make this seat competitive. Republican Representative Joe Booth should run, as will Representative Dave Wilson (R). On the Democratic side, I have no idea. I just pray John Atkin’s address doesn’t fall within this district. There was a rumor that former State Representative Ben Ewing (D) might run, since the cancer that forced him to retire from the House is now in remission. Another Dem possibilities are former councilman and businessman Lynn Rogers, former councilman Finley Jones, and Adams’ own grandson. Right now, this race is a Toss-up.
THE TWENTIETH—The Beaches
George H. Bunting, Jr. (D)—He was unopposed in 2006. If Bunting retires, Republican Representative Gerald Hocker will run and he will win. So this remains a Solid Dem race for now, with the potential to flip if Bunting retires.
Looking at all this blue up there. Out of the 11 seats up for election in 2010, only 2 are held by Republicans. And we Democrats do have a chance of picking up one of those seats, although we might lose one of our own, which we will net nothing. The 19th is a tossup until we know who is running. The 14th is Lean Dem since this is Ennis’ first time running for reelection. The 8th is Lean Dem due to the close nature of the last election. The 1st is Lean Dem due to the ever present chance of corruption on the part of McDowell. And the 5th is our only truly competitive race this cycle in the Senate.
I’ve heard rumors — RUMORS, PEOPLE — that Charles Potter is thinking of primarying McDowell in the First.
Don’t see a rematch re: Sokola and Ramone!
21st RD Dems rolled over and showed Ramone their soft underbelly in 2008.
You’re right Kilroy. I’m an idiot.
OK, here goes El Somnambulo’s take on these races.
1st-McDowell has always been fortunate in his ‘choice’ of opponents, both in the primary and the general. A splintered primary only ensures that HBM gets back in. ‘Bulo thinks that Potter is a whacko, so pardon him his lack of enthusiasm.
‘Bulo has stated his preference for Tommywonk in the past–and, if the Wonkster has the fire in the belly, he’s still ‘Bulo’s choice.
Regardless, no R can win this seat, not with those #’s.
If the D’s have their bleep together, less certain now that many of the top Party staffers have left for greener pastures, Cloutier is a goner. Short is a guaranteed winner, but that would place his House seat at risk. If Pat Morrison ran again, she’d likely win. She had no real traditional party support (she’s not the Delaware Way type, although she is a PDD type), and labor cut a backroom deal w/Cloutier. Still, ‘Bulo thinks that it is less than 50-50 that Morrison will run. There are several good options, many of whom surfaced while helping Short get elected. Anybody but the pathetic perennial candidate Carl Colantuono would be a good choice. ‘Bulo thinks this seat flips.
7th, 8th, and 9th are safe. Ramone has been trying to get elected forever, he will not jeopardize that for a rematch w/Sokola.
Dori Connor, one of the finest Senators and human beings in Dover, is also in one of the most Democratic districts in the State. She has always had solid labor support. There is one potentially very strong candidate who would likely flip the seat–Rep. Valerie Longhurst. Longhurst has that scary combination of abiding ambition and singular lack of accomplishment–think of the person who just HAD to get elected Junior Class Secretary–that makes her formidable and dangerous. If she runs, she wins. And it will be the public’s loss.
Dave McBride is a resident of the 13th SD in name only, he actually lives in Lewes. He has been in Dover for far too long. A ballsy D could knock him off. Unfortunately, the #’s just aren’t there for an R challenger.
Ennis is not at risk. While it is generally true that an incumbent is most endangered the first time they run for reelection, Ennis has over 20 years as a State Rep. He’s already got great name recognition, and he really does a good job on consituent service.
Speaking of having been in office for far too long, Nancy Cook defines the term. The ultimate inside player, she may not look so good if HB 1 actually passes and some rocks are turned over in Joint Finance. This could be a good opportunity for an R challenger who is willing to take her, and the Delaware Way, on. Much better that than having her install her son Tommy Cook as her successor.
The 19th and 20th are the most at-risk D seats. Former Phils’ manager Gene Mauch once said, “Sometimes you add by subtracting.” Having Uncle Thurm retire can only be considered a good thing. Make no mistake, Uncle Thurm will decide his successor, even if it’s an R. ‘Bulo hopes for an R since it makes it more likely that the remaining D’s will be able to coalesce around more progressive (i.e. not Tony DeLuca) leadership.
In the 20th, Sen. Bunting’s health could be the deciding factor. Bunting is by far the most progressive of the downstate D senators ( Republican Gary Simpson is also light-years ahead of the other Sussex trogs), but he has always voted for Adams in leadership. This seat would be a magnet for prospective candidates on both sides. It would be a wide open race, either party could win, and ‘Bulo doesn’t see a prohibitive favorite.
Being that BRIDGEVILLE DEMOCRATS are just about as bad as republican’s, I believe the 19th will stay in republican hands…oh wait…forget…Adams was supposed to be a Dem, right?
I live in that district and with the new screwed up Sussex County Democratic Committee I am not holding my breath for anything good. I hope I am wrong, I really do.
Good write up to DD and ‘Bulo. Sheesh, ‘Bulo, I swear I thought I had you pegged and then you get all non-partisan on me. Stop being a moving target, darn it! I prefer my fish in a barrel!
DD:
Out of the 11 seats up for election in 2010, only 2 are held by Democrats….
Er…uh…check that.
Whoops again.
There IS sort of a Zelig quality to the Beast Who Slumbers, now that you mention it…
If Bunting retires, look also for Sussex Councilman George Cole to consider a run. He’s got tons of cred in that region, though he might like his council seat too much – he’s assured of re-election for life. Dems and Republicans both love him.
Charles Potter would have defeated McDowell had it not turned into a 3 way race. Can we all get together on this ? Bet we could pull it off.
Hope Dave Sokola does not retire. Please not at this time.
Bulo, “Gary Simpson is also light years ahead of other Sussex trogs”.
YEA! He is also the prime co-sponsor on the marriage protection act, you MORON!
Speak of the devil and he surfs on over. Welcome back anon.
Hey, RSmitty – Have you become ISmitty yet?
Funny take on the R anon1…it’s my actual first initial, not a party registration.
Anywho…you need to read an update I posted yesterday.
Basically, I’d rather take this head-on, up close and make actual change or, if it is to be, go down fighting until it is impossible. That’s part of it, though, I don’t believe it is impossible. While I still say I am without a party, I can’t make it right by flipping my hand and quitting. That’s running away and it’s cowardly. Eff the attitudes that made me want to try to turn and walk. There will be a change and it will be impressive and I will stand up in the current face and challenge it.
In the techie-era of open source everything, we need to segue our parties and politicians into open-minds. It’s the age and it’s the demand.
Go ahead and toss me your anvils, but do keep in mind, that when I carry your anvil, I will give you an evil smirk in return, knowing exactly what I plan to do with it. My mind is forever open, but for this new paradigm, the focus will be tight and it will be a tough path.
Did anyone queue the patriotic music?
That is pretty solid analysis, Delaware Dem.
To: anon with a period. As opposed to anon with a brain. Simpson is generally not the knee-jerk reactionary that most of his fellow Sussex and many of his Kent County (his district crosses county lines) brethren are.
He SHOULD be called out on the marriage ban, and ‘bulo intends to do that on that thread. And he, and others, should be called out when circumstances warrant it.
And ‘bulo admits that it’s hard to argue with this cogent and incisive analysis:
“Bulo, “Gary Simpson is also light years ahead of other Sussex trogs”.
YEA! He is also the prime co-sponsor on the marriage protection act, you MORON!”
A Socrates for our times.
I count this as a good solid analysis, once you throw in The Beast’s comments. His comments particularly on Sen. Dori Connor are true. She’s twice the legislator that her late husband was, and a whole lot sweeter to boot. But she is an R in sort of the same mould as Spence, Oberle and Lofink. I don’t believe Longhurst makes the jump. Not this cycle. I think she’s working on the bonafides with her Whip position. Though there is an argument that works against her the longer she stays in it.
I agree that Simpson is more forward thinking in many ways than others in Sussex County. But he does hold deeply held convictions that would not be considered “progressive,” like the basis for the marriage bill.
I disagree that Cole will throw in to be a Senator. He is in the majority in County Council for the first time in his career and, barring him getting a concussion from beating his head against the desk when Sam Wilson has the floor, causing him to temporarily lose rational thought, there he will stay.
Ennis is not at risk from anyone other than himself. “Dead girl or live boy” territory for that district, and he’d not make it to the voters for them to make that choice, becasue his wife would kill him first in either instance.
Barring Sen. Bunting retiring in a surprise (his health is doing fabulously by all current accounts), the only real spots to watch right now are the 5th district and the 19th. The first will put Bryon Short’s House seat into serious play if he makes the leap to run for Senate, and I believe he will be under enormous pressure to not give that up because the hold in the House may be tenuous, depending on how this political climate looks to D’s over the next two years. The Senate is so lopsided D , as is the advantage in the seats up for grabs, it makes it a hard sell for him to make the leap as a matter of overall strategy. He could always do it two years hence.
The 19th is going to be wide-open, and the jostling could be heavy on both sides. I respectfully disagree with The Beast in regards to Adams’ grandson being a likely potential candidate. He’s not ready for, nor do I think he is interested in, an elective run. That said, I would not rule out a person with the name Adams being a candidate. I also see the potential for there to be some challenge to any candidate “picked” by the Senator. The D’s have been lining up in that district for a long time. Sen. Adams has close ties with most of them. He may just let them fight it out, but I doubt it. If he chooses a favorite, especially if it is someone like his grandson who would be viewed as potentially weak, there are some who will not sit still for it, because they’ve been sitting still for so long. The R’s may also have a real dog-fight for the seat, and, if the D’s don’t get their act together on a candidate, may have the ability to take it. They have strong candidates in Dave Wilson (geographically) and Booth (politically).