So, as I read this, it appears that the Treasury stands to make back this money IF,
The housing market turns around and enough qualified buyers can be found to purchase all these forclosed properties.
Then the assets recover some portion of their value and everybody makes money.
The catch is “qualified buyers”. With unemployment projected by some to top 10% by July who is going to buy the houses? Even deeply discounted houses.
Last month’s housing sales figures are trending good but I’m waiting for the revision that always follows these numbers. And we’ve still got a very long way to go to dig out of this pit.
It could turn out to be a brilliant scheme but there is an awful lot of luck involved here.
Rebecca, I get it now. The plan is too big to fail. Therefor, if it looks like it might fail, an even bigger plan will come along to bail out this plan.
I have to say that after reading DeLong’s posts I feel a little better about the plan. I do see his point, about the politics as well as the policy. I do think one advantage the government does have with holding these assets is that we can afford to hold them for a long time, until we actually do make some money on it. Perhaps it will work. I just hope we’re not trying to reinflate the bubble. House prices still have quite a bit to drop before they reach historical levels.
I just hope we’re not trying to reinflate the bubble. House prices still have quite a bit to drop before they reach historical levels.
*
The Geithner plan is a bet that the value of these home prices will stay up, up, up for evah. Or as one Eschaton commentor said – for at least 50 years until we are all dead and gone.
So, as I read this, it appears that the Treasury stands to make back this money IF,
The housing market turns around and enough qualified buyers can be found to purchase all these forclosed properties.
Then the assets recover some portion of their value and everybody makes money.
The catch is “qualified buyers”. With unemployment projected by some to top 10% by July who is going to buy the houses? Even deeply discounted houses.
Last month’s housing sales figures are trending good but I’m waiting for the revision that always follows these numbers. And we’ve still got a very long way to go to dig out of this pit.
It could turn out to be a brilliant scheme but there is an awful lot of luck involved here.
Great link DV.
Rebecca, I get it now. The plan is too big to fail. Therefor, if it looks like it might fail, an even bigger plan will come along to bail out this plan.
I feel better now.
if the hedge fund guys can get us out of this, they win big and save the country, literally
Brad DeLong is one of my daily reads — he is also one of the few econ guys out there relatively sanguine about the Geithner plan.
I have to say that after reading DeLong’s posts I feel a little better about the plan. I do see his point, about the politics as well as the policy. I do think one advantage the government does have with holding these assets is that we can afford to hold them for a long time, until we actually do make some money on it. Perhaps it will work. I just hope we’re not trying to reinflate the bubble. House prices still have quite a bit to drop before they reach historical levels.
See the Case-Shiller home price index —> Link
Just on MSNBC:
15 OF 20 TOP AIG BONUS RECIPIENTS GIVE BACK $30 MILLION IN PAYMENTS
Is our bankers learning?
I just hope we’re not trying to reinflate the bubble. House prices still have quite a bit to drop before they reach historical levels.
*
The Geithner plan is a bet that the value of these home prices will stay up, up, up for evah. Or as one Eschaton commentor said – for at least 50 years until we are all dead and gone.